Are Shootouts Ruining Smart Betting Angles?

Two Parallel Worlds of Betting

This creates two parallel worlds of betting.

Full-game moneyline, puck line, totals (includes OT and SO): If you bet the moneyline, you're betting the eventual winner, including a shootout win. If you bet the puck line, OT and SO essentially "forces" a one-goal margin in many games, which matters a lot for +1.5 underdogs and -1.5 favorites. Totals settle using the final "betting score" conventions, where a shootout adds one goal to the winner (e.g., a 2-2 game becomes 3-2 for settlement), which can flip an over/under at key numbers like 5.5.

Regulation or 60-minute lines (no OT or SO): Action Network notes that betting "to win in regulation" often offers better value because you're trading the safety of OT coverage for a bigger price, and because a "tie after 60" becomes a meaningful third outcome in that market structure. Maddux Sports makes the same conceptual point: sometimes value is in the regulation outcome line, sometimes in the inclusive line, and you don't need to worry about shootout performance if you're betting regulation-only.

So do shootouts "ruin angles"? They ruin lazy angles, especially ones that ignore how team quality splits across (a) 5-on-5 or 60 minutes and (b) 3-on-3 plus shootout skills.

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Four Ways Shootouts Distort What Bettors Think

Here's how shootouts specifically distort what bettors think they're doing.

1. They amplify randomness in small samples: Shootouts are closer to a skills contest than continuous hockey, which means a weaker team can steal a full two points without sustaining "better hockey" for 60 minutes. That doesn't mean the better team didn't have edge. It means the settlement included a high-variance subgame. Bettors feel "robbed," but the market price (moneyline) already implicitly includes the probability of reaching OT and then winning OT and SO.

2. They change the best market to bet: If your handicap is "Team A is structurally better at 5-on-5 and should carry play," the 60-minute line may better reflect your thesis than the full-game moneyline, because it isolates the part of the game where your edge lives. If your handicap is "Team A has elite goalie plus breakaway shooters" or "Team B is weak in OT defense," then the full-game line may be preferable because you want exposure to extra time.

3. They create a puck-line trap: BetUS's rules and Action Network's explanation highlight a key truth: shootout wins commonly settle as one-goal wins, which can be brutal if you laid -1.5 on a favorite that dominated but didn't finish in regulation. This is why many sharp bettors prefer underdog +1.5 puck lines in tight matchups: once regulation ends tied, that +1.5 has essentially cashed unless a freak two-goal OT scenario occurs (which it can't in sudden-death OT).

4. They skew totals around key numbers: Because of the "one goal added" settlement convention, a 2-2 game heading to OT cannot reach 6.5 (it ends 3-2 in OT or SO), and Action Network even walks through why a 2-2 game with a 6.5 total is "automatic loss" for the over. This creates very specific late-game live-betting dynamics: some totals become almost binary once the third period hits a certain scoreline.

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The Puck-Line Trap Is Real

The puck-line trap is the biggest way shootouts ruin bets. You lay -1.5 on a favorite that dominates the game. They outshoot the opponent 40-20. They carry play for 60 minutes.

Game ends 2-2. Goes to OT. Goes to shootout. Favorite wins 3-2 (with the added goal).

Your -1.5 loses. You got the team right. You got the handicap right. But the shootout killed you.

How to avoid the puck-line trap:

• Never lay -1.5 on tight matchups (if regulation could end tied, the -1.5 is dead)
• Always take +1.5 on underdogs in tight games (once regulation ends tied, +1.5 cashes)
• Bet regulation puck lines if you believe favorite wins by 2+ in 60 minutes
• Avoid puck lines entirely in games likely to go to OT

The puck-line trap is why sharp bettors fade favorites at -1.5 in close games. Shootouts turn two-goal regulation wins into one-goal final scores.

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Totals Get Weird Around Key Numbers

Totals around 5.5 and 6.5 get weird because of the "one goal added" settlement convention.

A 2-2 game going to shootout becomes 3-2. That's 5 total goals. If the total was 5.5, the under cashes. If the total was 4.5, the over cashes.

A 3-2 game going to shootout becomes 4-2. That's 6 total goals. If the total was 6.5, the under cashes.

How totals get distorted by shootouts:

• 2-2 games going to shootout settle at 5 goals (5.5 total always goes under)
• 3-2 games going to shootout settle at 6 goals (6.5 total always goes under)
• Live-betting totals become binary once score hits certain numbers late

If you're betting totals live and the game is 2-2 with 5 minutes left in the third, the 5.5 total is essentially dead if regulation ends tied. The shootout adds one goal. The under cashes.

Sharp live bettors hammer unders in tied games late when the total is 5.5 or 6.5. The shootout settlement convention guarantees the under.

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Regulation Lines Offer Better Value on Strong 5-on-5 Teams

If your handicap is "Team A is structurally better at 5-on-5," the regulation line offers better value than the full-game moneyline.

Colorado is elite at 5-on-5. They dominate possession. They should win in regulation against weak opponents.

If Colorado is -200 full game and -120 in regulation, the regulation line is better value. You're isolating the part of the game where Colorado has edge (5-on-5) and avoiding the coin flip (OT and shootout).

When to bet regulation lines vs. full-game lines:

• Bet regulation: Team has elite 5-on-5 play, opponent is weak structurally
• Bet full game: Team has elite goalie plus shootout, willing to take OT exposure
• Bet regulation: You want to avoid shootout variance
• Bet full game: You think game goes to OT and team wins the coin flip

Regulation lines offer better prices because you're trading OT coverage for higher odds. If you believe team wins in 60 minutes, take the regulation line.

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The Bottom Line on Shootouts and Betting

Shootouts don't ruin smart betting angles. They ruin lazy angles. If you don't understand which markets settle at regulation vs. full time, shootouts will wreck you.

The two parallel worlds: full-game lines (include OT and SO) and regulation lines (60 minutes only). Know which market fits your handicap.

Four ways shootouts distort betting: amplify randomness, change best market, create puck-line trap, skew totals around key numbers.

The puck-line trap is real. Never lay -1.5 on tight matchups. Always take +1.5 on underdogs in close games.

Totals get weird around 5.5 and 6.5. Shootouts settle at predictable goal totals. Live-betting unders in tied games late is profitable.

Regulation lines offer better value on strong 5-on-5 teams. Isolate the part of the game where your edge lives.

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