Betting the Presidents' Trophy: Curse or Overblown Narrative?

The Data Says Trophy Winners Win More Cups Than Random

One analysis of all 37 Presidents' Trophy winners found they had won 8 Cups. Far more than the roughly 2.3 you'd expect if all 16 playoff teams had equal odds.

That's strong evidence the best regular-season team does win more often than randomness would suggest.

The Trophy winner conversion rate:

• 8 Cups out of 37 Trophy winners (21.6% conversion rate)
• Expected if all teams were equal: roughly 6.25% (1 in 16)
• Trophy winners are more than 3x more likely to win the Cup than random

The "curse" is overblown. Trophy winners win more Cups than they should if regular season success didn't matter.

Hockey moves fast. So do our picks. The Content Lab has the angles you actually need.

The "Curse" Narrative Is Driven by Small Sample Sizes

The "curse" narrative is driven by recent splits. In one 10-year slice, only 1 of 10 Trophy winners took the Cup (10% hit rate).

That looks cursed, but the sample is tiny, and format anomalies (lockouts, COVID seasons) distort it.

Why small samples mislead:

• 10 years is not enough data to draw strong conclusions
• Lockouts and COVID seasons created playoff format changes
• Variance over 10 years can swing conversion rates wildly

If you look at the full 37-year sample, Trophy winners win at 21.6%. That's not a curse. That's the best regular-season team being more likely to win than random.

Think you can predict the chaos? Try Gridzy and prove it. Build your grid. Call your shots. It's free.

Books Already Price Trophy Winners Accordingly

Trophy winners are usually one of the 2 to 3 most likely champions, but not anywhere near a coin flip.

Books already price the leader accordingly. Current top Cup favorites like Colorado or Carolina sit around +300 to +900, not +150, precisely because past data and variance are baked in.

The market already knows:

• Trophy winners are more likely to win the Cup than random
• They're not overwhelming favorites (variance in the playoffs is high)
• Books price them at +300 to +900 to reflect this

If you're betting Trophy winners to win the Cup, you're getting fair odds. Not value. Not overpriced. Fair.

Before puck drop, check the Content Lab for the sharp side.

The Sharper Play: Bet Trophy Winner to Win First Series or Conference

If you want to attack the "curse," the sharper play tends to be: bet Trophy winner to win their first series or conference, but hedge or diversify Cup exposure, rather than loading one big outright.

Trophy winners are more likely to win their first series and conference than win the Cup:

• First round: Trophy winners have home-ice advantage and usually face the 8-seed (easiest matchup)
• Conference: Trophy winners are favored to make the Finals
• Cup: Variance increases in the Finals (one hot goalie can steal it)

The smart strategy is betting Trophy winners to advance early, then hedging or diversifying for the Cup.

If you're betting goalies and totals, start in the Content Lab.

Or Fade Trophy Winner Cup Prices If Metrics Don't Support It

Or fade Trophy-winner Cup prices if they look too short relative to 5-on-5 and goaltending metrics, not just because "curse."

If a Trophy winner has inflated Cup odds because of regular-season success but their underlying numbers don't support it, fade them.

The fade signals:

• Trophy winner has negative expected goals differential at 5-on-5 (they're winning games on special teams or goaltending luck)
• Goaltending is unsustainable (save percentage well above career average)
• Shooting percentage is inflated (team is finishing at rates they can't sustain)

If the Trophy winner's Cup odds are too short relative to their underlying metrics, fade them. Don't fade them just because "curse."

If you're feeling confident about tonight's slate, Gridzy is waiting.

The Bottom Line on the Presidents' Trophy Curse

The Presidents' Trophy curse is overblown. Trophy winners win 21.6% of Cups, more than 3x what you'd expect if all teams were equal.

The "curse" narrative is driven by small sample sizes (10-year slices) and format anomalies (lockouts, COVID). The full 37-year sample shows Trophy winners win more than random.

Books already price Trophy winners accordingly. Current favorites sit at +300 to +900, not +150. You're getting fair odds, not value.

The sharper play is betting Trophy winners to win their first series or conference, then hedging or diversifying for the Cup. Or fade Trophy-winner Cup prices if their underlying metrics don't support the odds.

Don't fade Trophy winners just because "curse." Fade them if their metrics don't support their odds.

No puck tonight? Piggy Arcade's top casino picks are live.