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Biggest First-Round Busts of All Time

First-round busts are the draft's most painful stories. Players projected to become franchise cornerstones who delivered little or nothing due to injuries, attitude, skill gaps, or bad scouting. The biggest busts are usually top-10 picks, especially number one overall, where the opportunity cost is massive. The pain amplifies when the bust comes in a deep draft class or when the player receives a huge contract before proving anything. This article covers the most disappointing first-round picks in NHL history.

January 25, 2026

Defining "Bust"

What makes a first-round pick a bust:

High draft position (top-10, especially 1st-3rd) with minimal NHL impact. For forwards, fewer than 200 games or 100 points. For defensemen, fewer than 50 points. Massive opportunity cost matters when the player taken instead became a superstar.

Key Factors:

High draft slot (top-10) with poor NHL production
Teams passing on future Hall of Famers
Injuries derailing careers
Attitude or off-ice issues
Never establishing NHL role

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The Worst Number One Overall Busts

The most painful first overall selections:

Alexandre Daigle (1st, 1993 - Ottawa Senators)

327 points in 616 games, never topped 51 points in a season. Famous for "I'm glad I went first overall because I'll make more money" quote.

Who Ottawa Passed On:

Chris Pronger (2nd, Hall of Fame defenseman)
Paul Kariya (4th, Hall of Fame winger)
Jason Arnott (7th, Stanley Cup champion)

Daigle's attitude and lack of work ethic made him one of hockey's most infamous busts.

Patrik Stefan (1st, 1999 - Atlanta Thrashers)

188 points in 455 games, injuries shortened career. Famous for missing empty net against Edmonton, leading to overtime loss.

Who Atlanta Passed On:

Daniel Sedin (2nd, 1,041 points)
Henrik Sedin (3rd, 1,070 points)
Pavel Brendl (4th, also bust)

Stefan's injuries prevented him from reaching potential, but the Sedin twins made this pick particularly painful.

Rick DiPietro (1st, 2000 - New York Islanders)

318 games as goalie, 15-year $67.5 million contract, injuries destroyed career.

Who Islanders Passed On:

Dany Heatley (2nd, 791 points)
Marian Gaborik (3rd, 815 points)
Ilya Kovalchuk (traded for 1st, 859 points)

DiPietro's massive contract made this bust financially crippling for Islanders.

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Top-Five Busts

Painful selections in the top five:

Pavel Brendl (4th, 1999 - New York Rangers)

78 NHL games, 4 goals, 9 points. Natural goal scorer with terrible attitude and work ethic.

Who Rangers Passed On:

Martin Havlat (26th, 594 points)
Simon Gagne (22nd, 601 points)

Brendl's complete failure to adapt to NHL was shocking given his junior dominance.

Nikita Filatov (6th, 2008 - Columbus Blue Jackets)

53 NHL games, 7 goals, 15 points. Russian winger who clashed with coaches and returned to KHL.

Who Columbus Passed On:

Erik Karlsson (15th, two Norris Trophies)
Jordan Eberle (22nd, 600+ points)
John Carlson (27th, 600+ points)

Filatov's attitude and inability to adjust to North American game made him complete bust.

Greg Joly (1st, 1974 - Washington Capitals)

365 games, 53 points as defenseman. First overall pick who never became top-pair player.

Who Washington Passed On:

Clark Gillies (4th, four Cups with Islanders)
Rick Middleton (14th, 988 points)

Joly represents old-era bust when scouting was less sophisticated.

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Top-Ten Busts

Disappointing selections in top 10:

Nail Yakupov (1st, 2012 - Edmonton Oilers)

136 points in 350 games. Russian winger with elite shot but no defensive game.

Who Edmonton Passed On: Actually first overall in weak class, but Ryan Murray (2nd) and Alex Galchenyuk (3rd) also disappointed.

Yakupov showed flashes but never developed complete game needed for NHL success.

Hugh Jessiman (12th, 2003 - New York Rangers)

2 NHL games, 0 points. Size-first American forward who couldn't skate at NHL level.

Who Rangers Passed On: Draft class included Zach Parise (17th), Ryan Getzlaf (19th), Brent Burns (20th), Corey Perry (28th), Patrice Bergeron (45th).

Jessiman represents old-school size bias over skill.

Scott Scissons (6th, 1990 - New York Islanders)

3 NHL games. Canadian center who never adjusted to pro game.

Who Islanders Passed On: Keith Tkachuk (19th, 1,065 points), Martin Brodeur (20th, 691 wins).

Case Studies

Deep dives into memorable busts:

Alexandre Daigle: Dominated QMJHL with 247 points in 119 games over two seasons. NHL scouts projected franchise center, but attitude problems and lack of compete level doomed career. Never averaged more than 0.65 points per game in NHL.

Patrik Stefan: Had all physical tools (6-foot-2, 200 pounds, good skater) but injuries prevented development. Shoulder, back, and knee injuries limited him to 455 career games. Empty-net miss became YouTube legend.

Rick DiPietro: Showed early promise with 2.87 GAA and .911 save percentage in first seasons. Islanders' 15-year contract was historically bad decision. Hip, concussion, and facial injuries destroyed career.

Nikita Filatov: Russian Super League star with 30 goals in 32 games before draft. Couldn't adapt to North American smaller ice and physical game. Clashed with coaches over ice time and usage. Returned to KHL after three seasons.

Era and Scouting Context

Bust rates vary by era:

Pre-1980: Limited scouting, many top picks were Canadians with limited skill sets. Busts more common due to weaker draft classes and poor evaluation.

1980s-1990s: International scouting expanded but teams still reached on Europeans or size-first players. Stefan and Brendl represent international bust risks.

2000s-2010s: Advanced analytics and combine testing reduced bust rates but high-risk Russians (Filatov, Yakupov) and injury-prone goalies (DiPietro) still burned teams.

Modern Era: Bust rates decreasing with better scouting, but mistakes still happen (Yakupov).

Bust Probability By Draft Slot

Statistical bust rates:

1st Overall: Roughly 15% bust rate (Daigle, Stefan, DiPietro, Yakupov among 60+ picks).

Top-5: About 25% bust rate as teams reach for need over best available.

Top-10: Around 35% bust rate increases as talent pool thins.

Top-15: Nearly 40% bust rate, teams gambling on upside.

The higher the pick, the more painful the bust due to opportunity cost and expectations.

The Verdict

First-round busts haunt franchises for decades. Alexandre Daigle's attitude, Patrik Stefan's injuries, and Rick DiPietro's contract represent different paths to bust status.

The pain compounds when teams pass on future Hall of Famers (Pronger, Sedin twins, Brodeur) for players who never established NHL careers. Modern scouting has reduced bust rates, but draft remains inexact science.

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