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NHL

Could a Wild Card Team Win It All Again?

Recent history says yes, but it's still low-probability by default. 2012 Kings: 8-seed, 95 points, first 8-seed ever to win the Cup, went 16-4 and 8-0 on the road, with Jonathan Quick posting a 1.41 GAA and winning the Conn Smythe. Other modern examples: under-seeded or late-surging teams (LA again, St. Louis 2019, Florida's deep run) show that goaltending plus PDO heaters can erase seeding disadvantages. So structurally: a Wild Card team with elite goaltending and strong 5-on-5 underlying numbers plus bad regular-season finishing luck is the realistic profile. But seeding data plus goal-differential history still say you're playing into the single-digit percentage band.

·
February 23, 2026
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The 2012 Kings Proved It's Possible

The 2012 Los Angeles Kings are the blueprint for a Wild Card team winning it all. 8-seed. 95 points. First 8-seed ever to win the Cup.

They went 16-4 in the playoffs and 8-0 on the road. Jonathan Quick posted a 1.41 GAA and won the Conn Smythe.

The Kings' winning formula:

  • Elite goaltending (Quick was unstoppable)
  • Strong 5-on-5 play (they dominated possession)
  • Road dominance (8-0 on the road is absurd)

If a Wild Card team wins the Cup again, they'll follow this blueprint. Elite goaltending. Strong underlying numbers. Road wins.

Hockey moves fast. So do our picks. The Content Lab has the angles you actually need.

Other Modern Examples: St. Louis 2019, Florida's Deep Run

St. Louis Blues 2019: worst record in the league in January, won the Cup in June. Jordan Binnington got hot. The team rode a PDO heater. They won it all.

Florida's deep run in 2024: made the Finals as a Wild Card team. Sergei Bobrovsky stole series. They nearly won the Cup.

The pattern is clear:

  • Elite goaltending erases seeding disadvantages
  • PDO heaters (high shooting percentage, high save percentage) can sustain for two months
  • Wild Card teams with strong 5-on-5 numbers and bad finishing luck are dangerous

If a team has elite goaltending and strong underlying numbers but is sitting in a Wild Card spot because of bad shooting luck, they're a threat.

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The Realistic Wild Card Profile

A Wild Card team with elite goaltending and strong 5-on-5 underlying numbers plus bad regular-season finishing luck is the realistic profile.

Look for teams that:

  • Have elite goalies (Shesterkin, Sorokin, Demko, Hellebuyck)
  • Dominate 5-on-5 possession (positive expected goals differential)
  • Are in a Wild Card spot because of bad shooting luck (low shooting percentage despite high shot volume)

If a team fits this profile, they're underpriced by the market. Books price them as Wild Card teams when they should be priced as legitimate contenders.

Before puck drop, check the Content Lab for the sharp side.

The Data Says Single-Digit Probability

Seeding data plus goal-differential history still say you're playing into the single-digit percentage band, not anything close to true 50/50.

Wild Card teams have won Cups, but it's rare. The 2012 Kings were the first 8-seed ever to win. St. Louis in 2019 was an outlier. Florida in 2024 didn't win.

The base rate:

  • 1-seeds and 2-seeds win the Cup most often
  • Wild Card teams win roughly 5% to 10% of the time
  • You need everything to break right (goaltending, PDO, matchups)

If you're betting a Wild Card team to win the Cup, you're betting on single-digit probability. That's not a bad bet if the odds are long enough, but it's not a high-probability play.

If you're betting goalies and totals, start in the Content Lab.

How to Bet Wild Card Teams

The smart Wild Card betting strategy is identifying teams with elite goaltending and strong underlying numbers before the market realizes they're threats.

Look for teams in Wild Card spots with elite goalies and positive expected goals differential. If the Rangers are in a Wild Card spot because of bad shooting luck but Shesterkin is posting elite numbers, bet them.

Wait until the regular season ends to lock in odds. Wild Card teams' odds often lengthen as the playoffs approach because casual bettors fade low seeds. That's when you strike.

Focus on teams with road dominance. The 2012 Kings went 8-0 on the road. If a Wild Card team has a strong road record, they're built to win in the playoffs.

Wild Card teams are viable, not something to anchor your whole futures portfolio on without a very specific read.

If you're feeling confident about tonight's slate, Gridzy is waiting.

The Bottom Line on Wild Card Teams

Wild Card teams can win the Cup. The 2012 Kings proved it. St. Louis in 2019 proved it. Florida nearly proved it in 2024.

The realistic Wild Card profile: elite goaltending, strong 5-on-5 underlying numbers, bad regular-season finishing luck.

The data says single-digit probability. You're playing into the 5% to 10% band. That's not a bad bet if the odds are long enough, but it's not high probability.

The smart strategy is identifying Wild Card teams with elite goaltending and strong underlying numbers before the market realizes they're threats. Bet them when their odds lengthen as the playoffs approach.

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