How to Read Player Prop Lines the Right Way

Start With the Basic Structure

Most props are formatted as over/under lines with corresponding odds. For example:

• Nikola Jokić points: Over 29.5 (-110) / Under 29.5 (-110)
• Patrick Mahomes passing yards: Over 275.5 (-115) / Under 275.5 (-105)

The number (29.5, 275.5) is the line or threshold. The figure in parentheses is the price or odds. A bet on the over means the player must exceed that line for your wager to cash. The under wins if they fall short or land exactly on a whole number (when applicable).

Want everything you need for player props in one place? Use Shurzy's Player Props tool to track trends, compare categories, and build prop parlays directly on the bet slip.

Understand American Odds

Most U.S. sportsbooks use American odds, expressed as positive (+) or negative (–) numbers.

Negative odds show how much you must risk to win $100. For example, -110 means risk $110 to profit $100 (total return $210).

Positive odds show how much you win on a $100 bet. For example, +150 means risk $100 to win $150 (total return $250).

Beginners often confuse which side is the favorite. Remember that negative odds indicate the side the book views as more likely, while positive odds signal an underdog or less likely outcome.

Calculate Implied Probability

Odds encode the bookmaker's assessment of how likely each outcome is. You can convert odds to implied probability using simple formulas:

Negative odds: Implied probability = |Odds| / (|Odds| + 100)
Example: -115 → 115 / (115 + 100) = 53.5%

Positive odds: Implied probability = 100 / (Odds + 100)
Example: +120 → 100 / (120 + 100) = 45.5%

This tells you what the book says the chance is, not necessarily the true probability, but their pricing baseline.

Read More: Player Props Explained: What Is a Player Prop Bet?

Identify the Hold (Vig or Juice)

If you convert both sides of a two-way prop to implied probabilities and add them, they sum to more than 100%. For instance:

• Over 29.5 at -110 = 52.4%
• Under 29.5 at -110 = 52.4%
• Sum = 104.8%

That extra 4.8% is the bookmaker's hold, their built-in profit margin. Typical holds range from 4-6% on major player props (star players, high-volume stats) to 10-20% on exotic or secondary props (bench players, niche stats).

A high hold is a red flag. It means the book is uncertain and is charging you a premium to bet, making it harder to find value.

Watch for Asymmetric Pricing

Not every prop is priced at -110/-110. When you see something like Over 24.5 at +105 and Under 24.5 at -125, the bookmaker is signaling which side they view as more likely.

The side with worse odds (more negative or less positive) is the side they expect to hit more often or anticipate heavy public action. The side with better odds is being sweetened to attract betting interest. In this example, the -125 under suggests the book thinks it's more probable the player stays below 24.5.

Look for Line Movement

Props aren't static. They move in response to betting action, injuries, and news. If a receiving yards line drops from 75.5 to 72.5 and the odds tighten, sharp money may have identified a matchup or usage issue the original line didn't fully price.

Conversely, if a line is stagnant despite heavy public betting on one side, the book likely trusts its number and isn't adjusting. That's another valuable signal.

Want everything you need for player props in one place? Use Shurzy's Player Props tool to track trends, compare categories, and build prop parlays directly on the bet slip.

Check Multi-Way and Exact-Outcome Props Carefully

Three-way props (e.g., Over 10.5, Exactly 10, Under 9.5) or touchdown scorer props with many options carry much higher holds, often 15-20%, because the bookmaker has to cover more outcomes.

Unless you have a strong reason to believe one outcome is badly mispriced, these are generally poor-value bets.

Read More: Player Prop Trends Explained for Beginners

Reading Lines the Right Way

Reading prop lines the right way means seeing past the surface number to understand probability, edge, and where value might exist. It's not just picking a side. It's decoding what the market is saying and deciding if you agree.

The best bettors don't just react to the number. They ask: What's the implied probability? What's the hold? Has the line moved? Is one side overpriced or underpriced based on my research? That's the difference between guessing and making an informed bet.

FAQ

What does -110 mean on a player prop?

It means you need to bet $110 to win $100. This is standard juice, similar to spread betting. Both sides are usually -110 unless the book favors one outcome.

How do I calculate my potential payout?

For negative odds, divide 100 by the odds and multiply by your stake. For positive odds, multiply your stake by the odds divided by 100. Most sportsbooks calculate this automatically.

Why do some props have different odds on each side?

Asymmetric pricing signals which outcome the book views as more likely. The side with worse odds is expected to hit more often or is getting heavy public action.

What's a good hold percentage for player props?

4-6% is standard for major props on star players. Anything above 10% is high and makes it harder to find value. Avoid props with 15%+ holds unless you have strong conviction.

Should I bet props that have moved significantly?

Line movement can signal sharp action, but not always. If a line moves due to news (injury, weather), it's a correction. If it moves without obvious news, it might be sharp money finding value.