Is This the Year a Canadian Team Breaks the Curse?

Edmonton Is the Favorite to Break the Curse

The Oilers are +790 to win the Cup, which makes them the betting favorite. Books are pricing Edmonton as the most likely team to end Canada's 32-year drought.

Simulation models like MoneyPuck show Edmonton with one of the highest Cup probabilities in the league this year, ahead of other Canadian teams like Vancouver, Winnipeg, Calgary, and Toronto.

The factors making Edmonton the favorite:

• McDavid and Draisaitl are two of the best players in hockey
• They made the Finals in 2024 and nearly won
• The supporting cast improved (Hyman, Bouchard, Skinner)
• The Western Conference is wide open

If you're betting on a Canadian team to break the curse, Edmonton at +790 is the chalk. It's not long odds, but it's the most realistic path.

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The Other Canadian Teams Are Long Shots

Vancouver, Winnipeg, Ottawa, and Calgary sit in the "possible but not top tier" futures band. They show up in "best chance among never-won or long-drought teams" lists but not as co-favorites.

If you want value on a Canadian team breaking the curse, you're looking at longer odds on teams with lower true probabilities:

• Vancouver at +1500 to +2000 (good team, but not as good as Edmonton)
• Winnipeg at +2000 to +2500 (Hellebuyck can steal games, but the offense is thin)
• Calgary and Ottawa at +5000 or longer (long shots that probably aren't making the playoffs)

The smart bet is choosing between taking the short number on Edmonton or hunting longer Canadian prices at the cost of a much lower true probability.

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The Curse Narrative Inflates Canadian Team Odds

The "curse" narrative inflates Canadian team odds because casual bettors hammer Canadian teams based on emotion, not analysis.

Books know this. They price Canadian teams slightly shorter than their true probability to capture public money. The casual Canadian bettor sees "32-year drought" and thinks "this is the year." They bet Toronto, Vancouver, or Edmonton at inflated odds.

The curse narrative creates inefficiency:

• Books shorten Canadian team odds to capture public money
• Sharp bettors fade the inflated lines and bet non-Canadian contenders at better value
• The public loses money betting on emotion instead of probability

If you're betting Canadian teams because of the curse narrative, you're betting with your heart, not your head. That's how you lose money.

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The Smart Bet: Edmonton or Fade the Narrative

If you believe a Canadian team breaks the curse, bet Edmonton at +790. They're the favorite for a reason. McDavid and Draisaitl are elite. The roster is built to win now. The path through the West is clear.

If you don't believe in the curse-breaking narrative, fade Canadian teams and bet non-Canadian contenders whose odds have lengthened because money moved toward Canadian teams.

The fade strategy:

• Carolina's odds lengthen from +700 to +900 because money moved to Edmonton
• Bet Carolina at +900 because the market overreacted to the Canadian narrative
• If Carolina wins, you profit from the inefficiency created by the curse narrative

The curse is a narrative. Narratives create inefficiency. Bet the inefficiency, not the emotion.

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The Bottom Line on the Canadian Curse

Canada's Cup drought is at 32 years. Edmonton is the favorite to break it at +790. If you're betting on a Canadian team, bet the Oilers. They're the most realistic path.

If you want longer odds, Vancouver and Winnipeg are the next best options, but their true probabilities are much lower. Calgary and Ottawa are long shots that probably aren't making the playoffs.

The curse narrative inflates Canadian team odds. Books shorten the lines to capture public money. Sharp bettors fade the inflated lines and bet non-Canadian contenders at better value.

Bet Edmonton if you believe, or fade the narrative and bet the inefficiency it creates.

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