NFL Over Under Matchups for Week 5 (and Predictions)

Why Over Under Betting Is Key in NFL Betting

Point spread betting tells you who might win and by how much. Over under bets focus only on points scored. If the number is set at 48, you’re betting on whether both teams combine for more or less.

NFL odds in Vegas build these totals from offensive efficiency, defensive strength, and pace of play. But they’re not perfect. Injuries, weather, and public action shift the line during the week. That’s why checking NFL odds by week is just as important as picking sides.

Example: If a total opens at 44.5 and jumps to 47, it’s not random. It means bettors — often sharps — hammered the over early.

Read more: NFL Betting: The Ultimate Guide for the 2025/2026 Football Season

Buccaneers at Falcons: A Defensive Grind

The total opened around 44.5. Atlanta leans heavy on the run, and Tampa Bay has one of the league’s best run defenses. That sets up a lot of stalled drives and field goals.

NFL odds and predictions point toward the under here. Unless the Falcons break off big plays on the ground, this game stays slow. The Buccaneers offense hasn’t shown explosive upside either.

Prediction: Under 44.5.

Jets at Vikings: Rodgers vs. Weak Secondary

The total is 44.5, with the Jets favored by 4. Aaron Rodgers should test Minnesota’s secondary early and often. Garrett Wilson props for receptions and yards line up well with this over under.

But the Vikings can score too. They’ll take shots against a Jets defense that’s been vulnerable against the deep ball. If this game gets into a back-and-forth, the over is live.

Prediction: Over 44.5. Rodgers and Wilson drive the scoring.

Bills at Texans: Shootout Potential

This is the highest Week 5 total at 48. Both teams have shown they can light up the scoreboard. Josh Allen looked sharp last week, and the Texans’ young QB continues to deliver.

NFL betting odds tell us this is expected to be a fast-paced game. Books don’t post 48 unless they’re confident both sides can score in the high 20s. The betting public will pile on the over, but in this case, it matches the matchup.

Prediction: Over 48. Bills-Texans goes north of 50 combined points.

Browns at Commanders: Ugly Football Incoming

Cleveland is a 3-point favorite on the road, with the total set at 43.5. That’s one of the lowest lines on the board, and for good reason.

The Browns defense is elite. They shut down passing attacks and create turnovers. Washington has struggled to protect its quarterback. This game profiles as field position battles, not touchdowns.

NFL odds in Vegas don’t always go low enough when defenses dominate. This one still has room to fall short.

Prediction: Under 43.5.

Saints at Chiefs: Big Spread, Modest Total

Kansas City is an 8-point favorite, but the total is just 44.5. That number suggests the books expect the Chiefs to score but don’t trust the Saints to keep up.

Here’s the angle: if the Saints hang around, the over becomes interesting. If they stall out, the game could still hit the under even with Mahomes throwing.

NFL betting props like Mahomes passing overs are tempting, but for the total, it’s tricky. The safer play is under unless New Orleans proves it can trade punches.

Prediction: Under 44.5. Chiefs win, but it stays low scoring.

NFL Injury Report and Over Under Movement

Injuries to quarterbacks and skill players have the biggest impact on totals. A starting QB ruled out can drop the line by six points. Even a top wideout sitting can shave two points off the total.

For Week 5 NFL betting, keep an eye on running backs listed as questionable. If starters sit, teams may pass more, pushing overs. On the flip side, a healthy return by a defensive star can drive unders. Always cross-check the final NFL injury report with the total you’re betting.

How the NFL Betting Public Shifts Totals

The NFL betting public loves overs. It’s more fun to root for touchdowns than punts. Sportsbooks know this and often set totals a half point higher than models suggest.

In Week 5, expect public money to hit the over in Bills-Texans and Jets-Vikings. That could inflate the numbers by Sunday. Sharper plays may come on unders in those spots if the line moves too high.

Knowing when to fade the public is part of beating NFL betting odds.

Tying Over Unders Into Parlay Bets

Over under plays pair well with spreads and props. Example: Browns –3 with under 43.5 makes sense if you believe Cleveland’s defense dominates. Jets –4 with over 44.5 ties Rodgers’ efficiency to Minnesota’s ability to respond.

NFL betting props help round it out. Pair the Bills-Texans over with Josh Allen passing yards over. Or tie the Chiefs under to Mahomes over completions but under touchdowns if the game drags.

Parlay bets are risky, but when your script makes sense, the payout is worth it.

Example Over Under Angle

Take Bills at Texans. The total is 48. Both teams rank in the top half of the league in pace and offensive efficiency. Buffalo’s defense has been inconsistent, and Houston’s secondary has given up explosive plays.

If you bet the over, you’re expecting both QBs to hit 275-plus passing yards and multiple touchdowns. A parlay tying the over 48 with Allen over 2.5 passing touchdowns and the Bills moneyline matches the game script.

That’s how you use over under bets smarter than just picking one number.

Final Predictions for Week 5 Over Unders

Week 5 NFL betting this week has clear totals to target. Here are the plays that stand out:

• Buccaneers-Falcons under 44.5
• Jets-Vikings over 44.5
• Bills-Texans over 48
• Browns-Commanders under 43.5
• Saints-Chiefs under 44.5

NFL odds and scores change fast, but over unders give you the cleanest path when spreads feel tricky. Just track the injury report, watch the line movement, and know when to fade the public.

Check out our full betting toolset to start spotting profitable lines.

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