Original Six Teams: Overrated by Public Bettors?

Big Brands Attract Public Money

The Original Six are the league's biggest legacy brands. Bruins, Blackhawks, Red Wings, Canadiens, Rangers, Maple Leafs.

Five of the six were listed among the five most valuable NHL teams. Big valuations mean big fan bases. Big fan bases mean big public betting volume.

Why Original Six teams attract public money:

• Legacy brands (fans bet on nostalgia and tradition)
• Big markets (New York, Toronto, Boston, Montreal, Chicago, Detroit)
• Media coverage (Original Six teams get more national TV games)
• Casual fans default to betting teams they recognize

Books know this. They adjust moneylines to account for public action. Original Six teams get priced shorter than their true probability to capture public money.

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Books Adjust Moneylines for Public Action

Sports Insights has explicitly noted that sportsbooks will adjust moneylines to account for public action in hockey (especially in heavily bet games).

If the Maple Leafs are playing a non-Original Six opponent and 72% of public money is on Toronto, books shorten the Leafs' moneyline to capture that public action.

The public tax breakdown:

• Original Six teams get 60% to 75% of public bets in most games
• Books shorten their moneylines 5% to 10% to capture public money
• The opponent's moneyline lengthens, creating value on the contrarian side

If you're betting Original Six teams at face value, you're paying a public tax. You're overpaying for brand name, not actual probability.

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The Data Shows Behavioral Bias in NHL Betting

Academic evidence shows that NHL bettors exhibit systematic preferences in how they allocate bets. One study found significant imbalances versus what would be expected from sportsbook odds, consistent with behavioral bias in NHL betting markets.

Bettors overbet favorites, big brands, and teams with recent winning streaks. Original Six teams hit all three categories.

The behavioral biases:

• Recency bias (bettors overweight recent wins)
• Brand bias (bettors overweight big-market teams)
• Favorite bias (bettors overbet favorites regardless of value)

Original Six teams benefit from all three biases. Books know this and price accordingly.

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The Maple Leafs Example: 72% of Bets, No Value

If you want a concrete "brand gravity" example, Action Network's public betting splits for one Canadiens–Maple Leafs game showed the Leafs taking 72% of bets (with Montreal at 28%).

The Leafs' moneyline was inflated to capture that public volume. Montreal's moneyline lengthened, creating value on the contrarian side.

The Maple Leafs public tax breakdown:

• 72% of bets on Toronto (massive public volume)
• Leafs' moneyline shortened from -150 to -175 (books capturing public money)
• Canadiens' moneyline lengthened from +130 to +155 (value on the contrarian side)

If you're betting the Leafs at -175, you're paying full public tax. If you're betting the Canadiens at +155, you're getting value created by the public overreaction.

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How to Fade the Original Six Public Tax

The practical takeaway isn't "auto-fade Original Six." It's treat them as the teams most likely to have a built-in public tax, so you should demand a better number (or look for spots where the line is being pushed past fair value).

Look for Original Six teams getting 65%+ of public bets. If the Rangers are getting 70% of bets against a non-Original Six opponent, fade the Rangers and bet the opponent.

Target non-Original Six opponents at inflated moneylines. If the public hammers the Maple Leafs and the opponent's moneyline lengthens, bet the opponent.

Line shop aggressively. Original Six teams' moneylines vary wildly across books because some books get more public volume than others. Find the best price.

Avoid betting Original Six teams in nationally televised games. National TV games attract the most casual public money. The public tax is highest in these spots.

Don't auto-fade Original Six teams. Fade them when the public tax is obvious and the line is pushed past fair value.

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The Bottom Line on Original Six Public Tax

Original Six teams attract public money because they're big legacy brands. Books adjust moneylines to capture that public action, creating a public tax.

The data shows behavioral bias in NHL betting. Bettors overbet favorites, big brands, and teams with recent wins. Original Six teams hit all three.

The Maple Leafs example: 72% of bets, moneyline inflated from -150 to -175. Montreal's moneyline lengthened from +130 to +155. Value on the contrarian side.

The smart strategy is fading Original Six teams when they're getting 65%+ of public bets. Bet the opponent at inflated moneylines. Line shop aggressively.

Don't auto-fade Original Six teams. Fade them when the public tax is obvious and the line is pushed past fair value.

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