Player Prop Betting

Player Props for NFL, NBA, NHL, and MLB Explained

Player props aren't one-size-fits-all. Each sport has its own rhythm, stat volume, and quirks that completely change how you should approach betting. Basketball gives you high-volume stats every night. Football throws variance at you once a week. Baseball makes you sweat out every at-bat. Hockey barely scores at all. Understanding these differences helps you pick the sports and markets that match your knowledge and research style, instead of trying to bet everything and winning at nothing.

February 18, 2026

NFL Player Props: High Variance, Driven by Game Script

Football props are among the most popular in US sports betting, but they're also the most volatile. Common NFL prop markets include:

Passing yards (e.g., "Patrick Mahomes Over/Under 275.5 passing yards")
Rushing yards (e.g., "Derrick Henry Over/Under 80.5 rushing yards")
Receiving yards (e.g., "Tyreek Hill Over/Under 85.5 receiving yards")
Touchdowns (Anytime touchdown scorer, Over/Under 0.5 passing TDs)
Receptions and completions (volume-based props)

NFL props are heavily influenced by game script. If a team is ahead, they run the ball and drain clock. If they're behind, they pass constantly to catch up. Weather conditions (wind, rain, snow) can devastate passing stats overnight.

Football is also a once-per-week sport with limited sample sizes, making injuries and lineup changes especially impactful. A player can suffer a season-ending injury on the first play, or get benched after two quarters in a blowout. That's inherent high variance.

Bettors who track advanced metrics like yards per attempt (YPA), target share, snap counts, and Expected Points Added (EPA) gain significant edges over casual bettors relying on season averages.

Want everything you need for player props in one place? Use Shurzy's Player Props tool to track trends, compare categories, and build prop parlays directly on the bet slip.

NBA Player Props: High Volume, High Consistency

Basketball props are widely considered the most consistent and beginner-friendly prop market because NBA games produce massive stat volumes and star players get heavy usage almost every night.

Common NBA props include:

Points scored (e.g., "LeBron James Over/Under 28.5 points")
Rebounds (e.g., "Nikola Jokić Over/Under 12.5 rebounds")
Assists (e.g., "Chris Paul Over/Under 8.5 assists")
Three-pointers made (e.g., "Steph Curry Over/Under 4.5 threes")
Combo props (Points + Rebounds + Assists, or PRA)

NBA props benefit from 82-game sample sizes, consistent rotations, and predictable usage patterns. Star players rarely sit unless injured or in blowouts, and even bench players have stable roles. The star players do a good job of consistent productivity night after night.

Pace of play is critical. Teams that play fast (more possessions) create more opportunities for all stats, while slow-paced games suppress totals. The main risk in NBA props is rest games (teams resting stars on back-to-backs or late-season games with playoff positioning locked) and blowouts where starters sit the fourth quarter.

MLB Player Props: Low Volume, Pitcher-Dependent

Baseball props center on hitting and pitching, with far lower stat totals than basketball or football. Common MLB props include:

Hits (Over/Under 1.5 total hits)
Home runs (Yes/No will a player hit a home run)
Strikeouts (pitcher props, e.g., "Over/Under 6.5 strikeouts")
Total bases (weighted hitting stat: 1 for singles, 2 for doubles, 3 for triples, 4 for homers)
RBIs and runs scored

Baseball's 162-game season provides enormous sample sizes, but individual game variance is massive. A star hitter can go 0-for-4 with three strikeouts against an elite pitcher.

Pitcher matchups dominate MLB prop analysis:

Left-handed batters vs. right-handed pitchers
Fastball-heavy pitchers vs. contact hitters
Ballpark dimensions (Coors Field in Denver is a hitter's paradise)
Weather (wind direction affects home runs)

Strikeout props for pitchers are especially popular because they're less influenced by team defense and offer clearer edges when you know a pitcher's strikeout rate and the opposing team's K%.

Want everything you need for player props in one place? Use Shurzy's Player Props tool to track trends, compare categories, and build prop parlays directly on the bet slip.

NHL Player Props: Low Scoring, Goalie-Centric

Hockey props are the least common of the four major sports, primarily because scoring is so low and variance is extreme. Common NHL props include:

Goals scored (Over/Under 0.5 goals, often priced as Yes/No)
Assists (Over/Under 0.5 or 1.5 assists)
Points (goals + assists combined)
Shots on goal (volume-based prop for skaters)
Goaltender saves (Over/Under total saves for goalies)

The NHL's low-scoring nature makes most player props binary (will they score or not?) rather than over/under totals. Even elite players can go multiple games without a goal.

Power-play time is critical. Players on the first power-play unit see far more scoring chances. Hockey bettors often focus on line combinations (which forwards play together) and goalie matchups. Facing a backup goalie creates value on scoring props.

Hockey is less predictable and harder to model than other sports, which makes it challenging for beginners but potentially profitable for bettors who specialize in it.

Sport-by-Sport Comparison

NBA:

Volume: Very high
Consistency: High
Key factors: Pace, usage, rest
Beginner friendly: Yes

NFL:

Volume: Moderate
Consistency: Low
Key factors: Game script, weather, injuries
Beginner friendly: Moderate

MLB:

Volume: Low
Consistency: Moderate
Key factors: Pitcher matchups, ballpark
Beginner friendly: Moderate

NHL:

Volume: Very low
Consistency: Low
Key factors: Power play, goalie matchups
Beginner friendly: No

Each sport rewards different research approaches. NBA props favor usage and pace models. NFL props demand game-script and matchup analysis. MLB props hinge on pitcher data and park factors. NHL props require line-combination tracking and special-teams insights.

Pick the sport you know best, not the sport with the most props available. Depth of knowledge beats breadth every time.

FAQ

Which sport is best for beginner prop bettors?

NBA. High stat volume, consistent usage, and predictable rotations make basketball props the easiest to research and the most reliable to hit.

Are NFL props too volatile for casual bettors?

Not if you stick to volume props (receptions, completions) instead of touchdowns or big yardage numbers. Volume is more predictable than efficiency.

Why are MLB strikeout props so popular?

They're less dependent on team defense and easier to project. If a pitcher has a 30% K rate and faces a team with high strikeout tendencies, the math is straightforward.

Can I make money betting NHL props?

Yes, but it requires specialization. Most bettors avoid hockey because variance is extreme. If you commit to tracking line combinations and power-play units, there's value.