Should the NHL Adopt a Play-In Tournament?

A Play-In Would Increase Revenue (And Chaos)

A play-in is plausible as a business idea because it creates additional high-stakes games. More games equals more revenue.

One analysis argues it would increase revenue (and potentially the cap), but it could effectively raise the season to as many as 84 games and trigger player pushback for a larger revenue share.

Why a play-in makes business sense:

• Additional high-stakes games (more TV revenue)
• More playoff teams (more fan bases engaged late season)
• More betting handle (play-in games generate massive action)
• Higher cap (more revenue means higher salary cap)

The NHL would love a play-in. More games. More money. More betting action. But players might push back on 84 total games without more revenue share.

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A Play-In Would Nuke the Playoff Cut Line

Betting-wise, a play-in would "nuke" today's clean playoff cut line and explode the menu of markets.

Right now, the playoff cut line is clean. Top 8 in each conference make it. Everyone else is out. A play-in changes that.

How a play-in nukes betting markets:

• Make and miss playoffs odds become more valuable (more teams in contention)
• New derivatives: "make play-in," "win play-in," "lose play-in"
• Short-series goalie props (play-in games are one-off or best-of-three)
• Late-season volatility spikes (teams optimize for 7 to 10 finish instead of contending)

Books would have to create entirely new markets. "Make play-in" odds. "Win play-in" odds. "7-seed beats 8-seed" odds. The menu explodes.

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Teams Would Optimize for 7 to 10 Finish

The tradeoff is that a play-in would amplify late-season volatility. Teams would optimize to finish 7 to 10 rather than truly contend.

In the NBA, teams tank to avoid the play-in or optimize to land in the play-in. The same would happen in the NHL.

How teams would game the play-in:

• 7-seed beats 8-seed 83% of time (7-seed is optimal)
• Teams tank to avoid 9-10 (one loss and you're out)
• Teams rest stars late season to preserve energy for play-in
• Late-season games become less competitive (teams not trying)

This distorts late-season moneylines and totals. Books can't price games where teams aren't trying. Sharp bettors who track motivation can exploit this.

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Short-Series Goalie Props Would Be Gold

If the NHL adopted a play-in, short-series goalie props would be gold.

Play-in games are one-off or best-of-three. Goaltending variance swings short series more than long series. A hot goalie can steal a play-in series.

Why short-series goalie props are valuable:

• Goaltending variance matters more (one hot performance wins the series)
• Books can't price goalie heaters accurately (small sample variance)
• Sharp bettors who track goalie performance can find edges

If the NHL adopts a play-in, hammer goalie props in play-in games. Books won't price goalie variance accurately in short series.

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The Late-Season Motivation Problem

The biggest problem with a play-in is late-season motivation distortion. Teams optimize to finish 7 to 10 instead of contending.

A team sitting in 6th with two weeks left might lose on purpose to drop to 7th. A team in 11th might pack it in because they can't make the play-in.

How this distorts betting markets:

• Late-season moneylines become unpredictable (teams not trying)
• Totals become chaotic (one team resting stars, other team going all out)
• Books can't price motivation accurately (too many variables)

Sharp bettors who track late-season motivation can exploit this. Casual bettors who bet on talent alone get destroyed.

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The Bottom Line on NHL Play-In

A play-in would increase NHL revenue. More high-stakes games. More betting handle. More fan engagement.

But it would nuke betting markets. The clean playoff cut line disappears. New derivatives explode. Late-season volatility spikes.

Teams would optimize to finish 7 to 10. Late-season games become less competitive. Motivation distortion creates chaos.

Short-series goalie props would be gold. Books can't price goalie variance in one-off games.

The NHL probably won't adopt a play-in soon. But if they do, the betting market explodes with inefficiencies. Be ready to exploit them.

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