The Biggest Upset Alerts This Season

Ohio State Losing Three Games Is CBS Sports' Boldest Prediction

Ohio State losing three games is CBS Sports' boldest prediction for the 2026 season, and the structural basis for it is more compelling than any single upset scenario could be.

Ohio State has not lost more than two games in a single season since 2011. A streak that has survived four coaching changes, roster turnovers, and multiple conference realignments.

But the 2026 schedule represents a convergence of threat that the program has not faced since that 2011 collapse.

Ohio State's upset vulnerability:

• Has not lost 3+ games in single season since 2011
• 2026 schedule has five opponents from way-too-early top 25
• Lost both Arvell Reese and Caleb Downs from defense
• Julian Sayin unproven sophomore carrying massive expectations

CBS Sports identified five opponents from their way-too-early top 25 on the Buckeyes' schedule, including games where Ohio State will likely be a single-digit or even underdog-adjacent favorite.

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The Departure of Reese and Downs Creates Structural Vulnerability

The departure of both Arvell Reese and Caleb Downs from the defense in the same offseason (the program's two best players) creates a structural vulnerability that no amount of recruiting depth can fully patch before September.

Add the quarterback situation: Julian Sayin is talented, but he is an unproven sophomore carrying the weight of program expectations that would crush most players.

If Ohio State drops games to Oregon, Penn State, and Michigan (all ranked opponents), the season collapses entirely from the preseason framing.

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Texas A&M's Late-Season November Meltdown Is Most Predictable

Texas A&M's late-season November meltdown is the most historically predictable upset cluster in the entire sport.

The Aggies have lost three of their last four November games against ranked opponents, and CBS Sports' bold prediction has them losing three November games in 2026, missing the CFP, and repeating the collapse pattern that has defined the Marcel Reed era's ceiling.

The specific schedule mathematics make this plausible: games at South Carolina, against Tennessee, at Oklahoma, and against Texas in succession represent four consecutive weeks where any single bad performance creates an elimination scenario.

Texas A&M's November collapse pattern:

• Lost 3 of last 4 November games vs ranked opponents
• CBS predicts losing 3 November games in 2026
• Four consecutive tough games in November
• Offensive line historically degrades late season due to depth issues

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Houston Upsetting Texas Tech in Big 12 Opener September 19

Houston upsetting Texas Tech in the Big 12 opener on September 19 is perhaps the single most specific and actionable upset alert of the season.

Texas Tech enters as reigning Big 12 champion with new portal quarterback Brendan Sorsby, who arrives with enormous expectations but the inherent adjustment period that every transfer faces in week one of a new system.

Houston's Conner Weigman is a returning starter who knows his coaches, his system, and his personnel. An enormous structural advantage in early-season games.

Houston vs Texas Tech upset factors:

• September 19 Big 12 opener
• Sorsby new to system (adjustment period Week 1)
• Weigman returning starter (knows coaches and system)
• Houston 10-3 in 2025 under Willie Fritz Year 2

Houston went 10-3 in 2025 in year two under Willie Fritz, and they are physically and schematically equipped to execute the kind of defensive gameplan that can neutralize Sorsby's improvisational strengths early in the year.

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Miami Failing to Reach ACC Championship Game

Miami failing to reach the ACC Championship Game is CBS Sports' most counterintuitive bold prediction given that the Hurricanes enter 2026 as the overwhelming ACC favorite.

But the history of Mario Cristobal's Miami tenure is a reliable guide: every season, the Hurricanes have dropped at least one game they weren't supposed to lose.

A game where roster talent was dramatically superior to the opponent, where the spread was double digits, and where something unexplainable happened.

Miami's trap game potential:

• Cristobal's Miami drops one unexpected game every season
• Darian Mensah learning new system in new environment
• Carrying Heisman hype creates psychological profile for upsets
• First road ACC opponent most dangerous game

The trap game potential in Darian Mensah's first season in Coral Gables is substantial. A quarterback learning a new system in a new environment while carrying Heisman hype faces the exact psychological profile that produces the most memorable upsets in college football.

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Notre Dame Losing in CFP Quarterfinals

Notre Dame losing in the CFP quarterfinals completes the upset picture with a program whose schedule does them no favors.

CBS Sports specifically noted that Notre Dame's manageable regular-season schedule and the 30-plus-day layoff before quarterfinals could leave the Irish rusty against a team that played a conference championship game two or three weeks earlier.

The 2025 history of Notre Dame in this exact scenario is instructive: they've repeatedly entered CFP games sharp on talent and flat on execution, which is the signature product of programs that don't face adversity in the regular season.

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The Bottom Line on Biggest Upset Alerts

Ohio State losing three games is CBS Sports' boldest prediction (hasn't lost 3+ since 2011, five top-25 opponents on schedule, lost Reese and Downs from defense, Sayin unproven). Texas A&M's November meltdown most historically predictable (lost 3 of last 4 November games vs ranked, four consecutive tough games in November, O-line degrades late). Houston upsetting Texas Tech September 19 most actionable alert (Sorsby new to system Week 1, Weigman returning starter). Miami failing to reach ACC Championship counterintuitive (Cristobal drops one unexpected game every season, Mensah learning new system with Heisman hype). Notre Dame losing CFP quarterfinals (manageable schedule plus 30+ day layoff leaves them rusty).

College football is chaos. The Content Lab makes it simple.