The Goalie That Could Steal the Stanley Cup

Sorokin Has the Numbers to Steal a Cup

Ilya Sorokin's underlying numbers are elite. High-danger save percentage and 5-on-5 save percentage near the top of the league. That's the profile of a goalie who can drag a team through the playoffs.

The Islanders aren't a powerhouse. They're a good defensive team with limited offense. But if Sorokin gets hot in the playoffs, he can steal series.

The factors that make Sorokin a Cup-stealing candidate:

• Elite high-danger save percentage (stops the shots that matter most)
• Elite 5-on-5 save percentage (consistent at even strength)
• Vezina favorite at -115 (market recognizes his elite play)

If the Islanders make the playoffs and Sorokin posts a .930+ save percentage, they can beat anyone in a seven-game series. That's how goalies steal Cups.

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Logan Thompson Is the Dark Horse

Logan Thompson (Capitals) ranks 2nd in high-danger save percentage (.880) and 2nd in 5-on-5 save percentage (.938) among qualifying goalies. He's also tied for 2nd in games with a .900+ save percentage start.

That combination of consistency and danger-area saves is textbook "get hot for two months and wreck the bracket."

Thompson's profile:

• High-danger save percentage near the top of the league
• 5-on-5 save percentage elite
• Consistent .900+ performances

The Capitals aren't Cup favorites, but if Thompson gets hot, they can make a deep run. He's the dark horse goalie who could steal the Cup at longer odds.

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Hellebuyck Already Proved He Can Do It

Connor Hellebuyck just went back-to-back Vezina winner and closed last year as a runaway favorite at -10000. He's already proven he can post a postseason-worthy ceiling if Winnipeg's skaters do enough in front of him.

Hellebuyck's track record:

• Back-to-back Vezina winner
• Elite save percentages in both regular season and playoffs
• Proven he can carry Winnipeg through tough series

If Winnipeg makes the playoffs and Hellebuyck plays like a Vezina winner, they're a threat. The Jets' offense is thin, but Hellebuyck can steal games.

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How to Bet "Goalie Steals the Cup"

If you're looking for a "goalie steals the Cup" angle in futures, Sorokin and Thompson are the archetype: elite danger-area numbers on teams that can score enough to make a heater count.

The betting strategy:

• Bet Islanders Cup futures at +2000 to +2500 if you believe Sorokin can steal it
• Bet Capitals Cup futures at +3000 to +4000 if you believe Thompson can steal it
• Bet Sorokin or Thompson to win Conn Smythe (playoff MVP) at long odds if their teams make deep runs

Goalies who steal Cups often win Conn Smythe. If Sorokin drags the Islanders to the Finals and posts a .935 save percentage, he's winning playoff MVP even if they lose.

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The Profile of a Cup-Stealing Goalie

The profile of a goalie who can steal a Cup is simple: elite high-danger save percentage, elite 5-on-5 save percentage, and a team that can score enough to make the saves count.

Sorokin and Thompson both fit this profile:

• Elite danger-area saves (they stop the shots that matter most)
• Elite even-strength saves (they're consistent when the game is tight)
• Teams that can score enough to win 2-1 or 3-2 games

If either goalie gets hot in the playoffs and posts a .930+ save percentage, their teams become Cup threats even if they're not favorites.

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The Bottom Line on Cup-Stealing Goalies

Sorokin and Thompson are the top candidates to steal the Stanley Cup in 2026. Both have elite high-danger save percentage and 5-on-5 save percentage. Both are on teams that can score enough to win tight games.

If you're betting "goalie steals the Cup," bet Islanders or Capitals Cup futures at long odds. If either goalie gets hot, their teams can beat anyone.

Hellebuyck is the proven commodity. He's already won back-to-back Vezina Trophies. If Winnipeg makes the playoffs, he can carry them.

The edge is betting goalies with elite danger-area numbers on teams that can score enough to make the saves count. That's Sorokin, Thompson, and Hellebuyck.

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