The Next NHL Coach on the Hot Seat
One of the clearest hot-seat boards right now is Bookies.com's "next coach fired" list, which had Ryan Huska (Flames) +200 as the favorite, followed by Scott Arniel (Jets) +250 and Jim Montgomery (Blues) +350. That same board noted that as of early February there hadn't been a coaching change yet, while citing Calgary being 11 points out of a playoff spot and sitting at a -27 goal differential as part of the case for Huska leading the list. If you're betting this market, the sharper lens is organizational: teams drifting out of the race plus poor goal differential plus a roster that "should" be better are the classic recipe for an in-season firing.

Ryan Huska (Flames) Is the Betting Favorite at +200
Ryan Huska (Calgary Flames) is the betting favorite to be the next NHL coach fired at +200.
Calgary is 11 points out of a playoff spot with a -27 goal differential. They're drifting out of the race, and the roster "should" be better on paper.
Why Huska is the favorite:
- Calgary is underperforming expectations (11 points out of playoffs)
- Poor goal differential (-27 is brutal)
- Roster has talent (Lindholm, Weegar, Kadri) but isn't winning
- Ownership is impatient (history of firing coaches mid-season)
If Calgary continues drifting out of the playoff race, Huska gets fired before the trade deadline. That's the bet at +200.
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Scott Arniel (Jets) Is Second at +250
Scott Arniel (Winnipeg Jets) is second on the hot-seat list at +250.
Winnipeg started the season hot, then cooled off. They're still in a playoff spot, but the team is underperforming relative to expectations.
Why Arniel is on the hot seat:
- Jets started hot, then regressed (early-season success set high expectations)
- Hellebuyck can't carry them alone (goaltending is elite, but the offense is thin)
- Ownership expects playoff success (anything less than a deep run is failure)
If the Jets continue their regression and fall out of a top-3 playoff spot, Arniel gets fired. The window is closing fast.
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Jim Montgomery (Blues) Is Third at +350
Jim Montgomery (St. Louis Blues) is third on the hot-seat list at +350.
The Blues are mediocre. Not good enough to contend, not bad enough to tank. That's the worst place to be in the NHL.
Why Montgomery is on the hot seat:
- Blues are stuck in mediocrity (not contending, not rebuilding)
- Roster is aging (Buch, Kyrou, Thomas are solid, but the depth is weak)
- Ownership wants a direction (either rebuild or contend, not stuck in the middle)
If the Blues continue being mediocre and ownership decides to rebuild, Montgomery gets fired and a new coach comes in to oversee the tank.
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The Classic Recipe for In-Season Firing
Teams drifting out of the race plus poor goal differential plus a roster that "should" be better are the classic recipe for an in-season firing.
Calgary fits all three criteria. Drifting out of the race (11 points out of playoffs). Poor goal differential (-27). Roster that should be better (talent on paper).
The in-season firing formula:
- Team is underperforming expectations (sitting outside playoffs)
- Poor goal differential (losing by multiple goals per game)
- Roster has talent but isn't winning (coaching is blamed)
- Ownership is impatient (wants immediate results)
If a team hits all four, the coach gets fired mid-season. Calgary hits all four. That's why Huska is the favorite.
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How to Bet the Next Coach Fired Market
The smart "next coach fired" betting strategy is identifying teams that fit the in-season firing formula.
Look for teams 10+ points out of playoffs with negative goal differential. Calgary (-27 goal differential, 11 points out) fits. That's the profile.
Target teams with impatient ownership. Some owners fire coaches mid-season (Calgary, Winnipeg). Others wait until the offseason (patient rebuilding teams).
Fade coaches on rebuilding teams. If a team is openly tanking, the coach is safe. Ownership isn't firing a coach for losing when losing is the goal.
Monitor goal differential more than record. A team with a bad record but positive goal differential is unlucky. A team with a bad record and negative goal differential has real problems.
The edge is betting coaches on teams that fit the in-season firing formula before the market fully prices it in.
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The Bottom Line on NHL Coaching Hot Seats
Ryan Huska (Flames) is the favorite at +200. Calgary is 11 points out of playoffs with a -27 goal differential. The roster should be better. He's getting fired if the drift continues.
Scott Arniel (Jets) is second at +250. Winnipeg started hot, then regressed. If they fall out of a top-3 playoff spot, he's gone.
Jim Montgomery (Blues) is third at +350. St. Louis is stuck in mediocrity. If ownership decides to rebuild, he's fired.
The classic in-season firing formula: team drifting out of the race, poor goal differential, roster that should be better, impatient ownership. Calgary hits all four.
Bet coaches on teams that fit the formula. Monitor goal differential more than record. Fade coaches on rebuilding teams.
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