Three-Point Games: How They'd Flip the Standings and Futures

The Current System Creates Odd Standings Artifacts

Under today's system, some games "create" 3 points (because OT and SO yields 2+1) while regulation games "create" only 2 points, which can inflate points percentage and compress the middle of the table in seasons with lots of OT.

Sound Of Hockey explains this inconsistency cleanly: in a two-point world you can create odd artifacts where a team's points pace looks "inflated" if a large share of games go beyond regulation, while a three-point model normalizes the points allocation per game and makes points percentage behave more logically.

Why the current system is broken:

• Some games create 3 points (OT and SO games)
• Some games create 2 points (regulation games)
• Teams with lots of OT games get "extra" points in the standings
• Points percentage becomes unreliable measure of team quality

The Athletic made a similar point in-season: pushing a 3-2-1 model wouldn't necessarily overhaul who makes the playoffs, but it would widen gaps and better reward winning in "traditional 60-minute hockey" before 3-on-3 and shootouts add randomness.

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Three-Point Games Would Change Late-Game Strategy

What changes strategically inside games is where betting and futures markets really get hit. In the current format, the last 3 to 5 minutes of a tied game often turn into a mutual-risk-avoidance pact: both teams value "securing the loser point" and will trade a lower chance of winning in regulation for a higher chance of reaching OT.

This is an incentives problem, not a morality problem. Teams are optimizing for points under the current system.

In a 3-2-1 format, the reward for pushing for the regulation win rises. You're chasing a 3-point outcome rather than settling for a 2-point ceiling.

How late-game strategy would change:

• More pulled goalies while tied (teams chasing the 3-point regulation win)
• More aggressive play in final 5 minutes (not settling for OT)
• Fewer games drifting passively into OT
• More one-goal regulation wins (teams pushing for the extra point)

This creates betting opportunities. If teams are pushing harder in regulation, live totals in tied games spike. If fewer games go to OT, the under becomes more valuable late in tied games.

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ESPN's "What If" Standings Show the Impact

ESPN ran "what if" standings analyses and highlighted why reformers like the 3-2-1 method: it's designed to reward regulation performance and potentially change who's chasing whom, especially in congested races where "OT point farming" keeps weaker teams artificially close.

The Athletic similarly argued that while the playoff field might look similar, the spacing between tiers could become more reasonable and the standings would better represent who is truly winning in 60 minutes.

That spacing matters because it influences trade-deadline behavior (buyers vs sellers), rest patterns, and whether teams treat the final 15 games as "we can coast into WC2" or "we need real regulation wins."

How standings would change:

• Bigger gaps between contenders and pretenders
• Less OT point farming keeping bad teams close
• Trade deadline becomes clearer (who's buying, who's selling)
• Final 15 games become more competitive (teams can't coast)

For bettors, this means late-season futures markets become cleaner. You can identify true contenders earlier. Books can't hide weak teams behind OT point farming.

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Four Futures Markets That Would Change

For futures pricing, three-point games would ripple through four major markets.

Make playoffs and make playoffs as WC markets: Because regulation wins become more valuable, teams built to close games in 5-on-5 (strong structure, strong defensive exit play, fewer "coin-flip" tendencies) would gain relative value in season-long playoff probability models. You'd likely see less "OT lottery" rescuing teams that are mediocre at 5-on-5 but decent in 3-on-3 or shootouts.

Division and conference futures: A three-point system is essentially a regulation-win multiplier, so teams that consistently finish games in regulation would separate faster in the standings. That typically decreases the live-betting "comeback value" of chasing a division midseason unless you're within a smaller "regulation-win gap" rather than today's more forgiving point compression.

Season points totals and win totals: If the league adopted 3-2-1, it becomes easier (and more stable) to project end-of-season points because each regulation result produces a predictable amount of table movement and fewer points are "created" by OT frequency variance. That should tighten books' totals ranges after an adjustment period, but the first season would be chaotic because models trained on decades of two-point outcomes would need conversion factors for team style and OT propensity.

Cup futures, indirectly: Cup pricing doesn't directly use standings points. It uses team strength, playoff probability, and matchup paths. But standings points decide seeding, and seeding affects paths. If three-point games create bigger separation, you get fewer "fake middles" where a team looks like a comfortable seed while actually being a fragile OT-dependent profile.

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Teams Built for Regulation Would Gain Value

Teams built to close games in 5-on-5 would gain relative value in a three-point system. Colorado, Carolina, and Edmonton are all built for regulation wins. They dominate possession. They finish games.

Teams that rely on OT and shootouts to steal points (New York Islanders, some years) would lose value. Their inflated points totals would deflate in a three-point system.

Which teams gain and lose value:

• Gain: Teams with elite 5-on-5 play (Colorado, Carolina, Edmonton)
• Lose: Teams that rely on OT lottery (Islanders, defensive grind teams)
• Gain: Teams with strong goaltending in regulation (close out 2-1 games)
• Lose: Teams with weak 5-on-5 but strong shootout rosters

If the NHL ever adopts three-point games, bet the teams built for regulation before the market adjusts. Colorado, Carolina, and Edmonton would all be undervalued initially.

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The First Season Would Be Chaotic for Bettors

The first season after a switch to three-point games would be chaotic. Books' models are trained on decades of two-point data. They wouldn't know how to price team styles under the new system.

Sharp bettors who understand which teams are built for regulation vs. OT would clean up. Books would take months to adjust.

The inefficiencies in Year 1:

• Win totals mispriced (books using two-point baselines)
• Division futures mispriced (books not adjusting for regulation-win multiplier)
• Make playoffs odds mispriced (OT-dependent teams overpriced)
• Season points totals mispriced (books not accounting for fewer 3-point games)

If the NHL ever announces a switch to three-point games, hammer the markets immediately. The first season would be a gold mine.

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The Bottom Line on Three-Point Games

Three-point games would flip NHL standings and futures markets. The current system creates odd artifacts. Some games create 3 points. Some create 2. Points percentage becomes unreliable.

A 3-2-1 system normalizes points allocation. Every game creates 3 points. Teams that win in regulation get rewarded. Teams that rely on OT lottery lose value.

Late-game strategy would change. More pulled goalies while tied. More aggressive play in final 5 minutes. Fewer games drifting to OT.

Four futures markets would change: make playoffs, division and conference, season points totals, Cup futures. Teams built for regulation would gain value. Teams built for OT would lose value.

The first season would be chaotic. Books wouldn't know how to price the new system. Sharp bettors would profit.

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