UFC Betting Explained: Adjustments Between Fights

Adjustments between fights are where UFC rematches are actually decided. The first bout shows who each fighter really is under stress. The rematch is a test of who understood those lessons, made the right changes in camp, and can execute a new plan without breaking their own game.

Most bettors hear "Fighter X made adjustments" and assume that means something. It doesn't. Every fighter claims they've made adjustments. Most haven't. The ones who actually changed something meaningful usually can't execute it under pressure. Your edge comes from identifying which adjustments are real, which are bullshit, and which will actually work when the cage door closes.

Read more: The Complete Guide to Betting UFC Rematches & Trilogy Fights

What Really Changes (And What Doesn't)

Fighters do not become different athletes overnight. What changes between fights are tactics, pacing, and strategy, not fundamental traits like chin, reach, or raw speed. Understanding this distinction separates profitable rematch betting from throwing money away on false narratives.

Typical between-fight adjustments fall into four categories that actually show up in rematches:

• Strategic game plan: Coaches reframe the entire approach around what worked and failed in fight one (more wrestling versus striking, more countering versus leading, more clinch versus space)
• Tactical habits: More jabs, better feints, new angles, different combinations, different defensive responses to key weapons
• Conditioning and pacing: Camps adjust work volume, sparring, and conditioning to fix gas-tank failures exposed in the first fight
• Game-context pieces: Lifestyle changes, better recovery, fewer distractions outside the cage

The best adjustments preserve what a fighter already does well and patch the most dangerous leaks without turning them into someone they're not. When a pressure fighter tries to become a pure outside boxer between fights, they usually fail miserably because they're fighting against their own instincts.

Shurzy Tip: If a fighter talks about "completely changing my style," that's usually a red flag, not a green light. The best adjustments are tactical tweaks, not identity overhauls. Bet against fighters trying to become someone they're not.

How Coaches Actually Build Adjustments

Good camps start with brutally honest diagnosis instead of excuses. They ask what exactly lost them the first fight, not "we had an off night." Is the problem technical, tactical, physical, or mental? Can it be realistically fixed in one camp without breaking their strengths?

Once the problem is diagnosed, coaches design opponent-specific game plans that revolve around addressing those weaknesses. Here's how elite camps approach the rematch preparation process:

• Pattern study on both fighters: Coaches analyze entries, exits, combinations, and reactions under pressure from the first fight
• Script if-then flowcharts: If opponent shoots single-leg, we do A; if he switches to double, we do B; if he counters with X, we go to Y
• Tailored sparring partners: Partners mimic the opponent's style, enforcing new habits under fatigue so adjustments become automatic
• Timed implementation: Broad structural improvements happen between fights in the off-season, while opponent-specific tweaks happen during camp

The big risk is overcorrection. Analysts warn that over-coaching adjustments can pull a fighter so far out of their comfort zone that they forget how they won fights in the first place. If you turn a pressure brawler into a cautious point-fighter overnight, you may fix one problem but destroy their instinctive strengths.

Read more: The Complete Guide to Betting UFC Rematches & Trilogy Fights

What Can Actually Change in One Camp

From a betting standpoint, think of adjustments in terms of what can move meaningfully in one training camp versus what is basically fixed. This framework helps you separate real adjustments from marketing hype.

The following elements often improve meaningfully between fights when camps focus on them:

• Game plan and shot selection: More jabs, different combination priorities, fewer naked kicks, more or fewer takedown attempts
• Defensive habits against specific weapons: Learning to check calf kicks, move head off center versus jab/straight, pummel and frame in clinch
• Pacing and energy management: Not blowing the tank early, being more selective with power shots and wrestling attempts
• Footwork patterns: Staying off the fence, circling away from power side, maintaining desired range

Meanwhile, these elements rarely improve meaningfully regardless of training camp quality:

• Chin and punch resistance: If a fighter was badly rocked multiple times in the first fight, no camp reliably fixes their ability to take shots
• Raw speed and reflexes: Aging curves and damage usually go one direction only
• Length, frame, strength differentials: You can mitigate them with tactics, but not erase them
• Deep stylistic mismatches: Elite chain-wrestler versus historically poor defensive grappler, those gaps are hard to bridge quickly

For bettors, identify whether the first-loss problems were mostly in the adjustable or non-adjustable category. If they are mostly permanent, expect similar dynamics in the rematch. If they're mostly tactical and you see clear evidence of targeted work, your probabilities should shift accordingly.

Shurzy Tip: A fighter who got knocked out cold in fight one won't fix their chin in training camp. A fighter who got taken down repeatedly because of lazy footwork might fix that problem. Know the difference and bet accordingly.

How to Handicap Adjustments Systematically

Step one is rewatching the first fight as a diagnostic tool rather than entertainment. Use it like a medical chart to identify specific problems that could be addressed between fights.

Your diagnostic process should follow this systematic approach:

• First watch for flow: Who controls distance, pace, and where the fight happens
• Second watch for mistakes: Lazy entries, backing straight up, silly exchanges in the pocket, bad cage awareness
• Third listen to corner advice: Were the instructions clear and tactical? Did the fighter actually implement them next round?

Make two columns labeled "Won because" and "Lost because," then tag each item as Tactical/Technical or Physical/Structural. The fighters with more tactical problems have more room for genuine improvement. The fighters with more structural problems are stuck with who they are.

Track between-fight signals that indicate adjustments are real, not just talk. Here's what actually matters versus what's just noise:

• Camp changes: Moving to a proven elite team or adding a specialist coach (wrestling, striking, strength and conditioning)
• Public game-plan hints: Coaches demonstrating specific counters or flows rather than vague "we're more focused" platitudes
• Recent fights versus similar styles: Has the fighter already implemented changes in tune-up bouts?
• Lifestyle and training changes: Credible reports of improved discipline or conditioning with specific details

If you only see vague "I'm coming in more focused" talk with no technical or structural detail, discount it completely. That's marketing, not preparation.

Where Adjustments Create Betting Value

The best rematch value often lies on the fighter who lost for fixable reasons and has visibly worked on them. CoreSports breakdowns emphasize this pattern repeatedly across combat sports.

Your execution workflow should look like this: List the first-fight loser's errors (example: no jab, always circling into power, over-aggressive early). Confirm camp or technical changes targeting those specific issues. If the market is still anchored to the first result, you often get plus-money on a materially improved version of the loser.

Sometimes camps over-steer into a new game plan and neuter their fighter's strengths, creating fade opportunities. If film and interviews suggest a drastic style change that doesn't fit the fighter's identity (pressure brawler trying to be a pure out-fighter overnight), that's often a bet-against spot. Overcorrection leads to hesitation and overthinking, which elite opponents exploit ruthlessly.

Between-fight adjustments can also change how outcomes happen, even if the same fighter wins. If the loser fought recklessly and got finished but now shows more caution, the rematch may skew more toward overs and decisions. If both fighters vow to "leave no doubt" in a trilogy and prior fights were wars, props on inside-the-distance become more attractive.

Shurzy Tip: The market overprices "Fighter X made adjustments" narratives and underprices "Fighter X is fundamentally the same person" realities. Most adjustments fail under pressure. Bet accordingly.

Conclusion

Adjustments between fights are second-order variables in rematch betting. First you understand the core matchup from fight one, then you layer on what can realistically change in camp. The edge comes from correctly identifying which holes can be patched, which cannot, and which camp's talk about adjustments is backed by tangible, trackable evidence rather than wishful thinking. Most fighters can't execute meaningful changes under pressure. The rare ones who can create systematic betting value when the market hasn't caught up.

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