UFC

UFC Betting Explained: Camp Win Rates & Trends

Elite training camps don't just produce champions. They generate systematically higher win rates, better performance in specific fight contexts, and predictable stylistic patterns that create exploitable betting edges. By analyzing camp-specific win rates, head-to-head matchup data, and performance trends across fight types, sharp bettors identify value that markets consistently misprice. Most bettors bet records and rankings. Sharp bettors bet statistical patterns invisible to casual money. The data doesn't lie. Elite camps win more, and they win predictably.

February 19, 2026

UFC Betting Explained: Camp Win Rates & Trends

By analyzing camp-specific win rates, head-to-head matchup data, and performance trends across fight types, sharp bettors identify value that markets consistently misprice. Most bettors bet records and rankings. Sharp bettors bet statistical patterns invisible to casual money. The data doesn't lie. Elite camps win more, and they win predictably.

Overall UFC Win Rate Benchmarks

Understanding league-wide baselines helps you identify when camp performance is truly exceptional.

League-wide baseline (all fighters, 2015-2025):

Favorites: 68% win rate
Underdogs: 32% win rate
Decision rate: ~50%
Finish rate: ~50% (split between KO/TKO and submissions)

Why this matters: Elite camps should significantly outperform these baselines. If a camp's fighters win only 60% as favorites, that's underperformance. Bet against them.

Shurzy Tip: When you see an elite camp fighter with a 75%+ win rate getting plus-money odds, the market is mispricing institutional quality. That's systematic value.

American Kickboxing Academy (AKA) Win Rates

AKA produces the most consistent winners in five-round fights, creating one of the sharpest edges in UFC betting.

Overall win rate (2015-2025): 72-75% among top-tier opponents

By Fight Type

Three-round fights: 68-70%
Five-round fights: 78-82% (elite cardio edge manifests)
Main events: 75-80%

By Opponent Style

Vs strikers with <65% TDD: 85-90% (dominant)
Vs strikers with >70% TDD: 55-60% (competitive)
Vs elite wrestlers: 60-65% (struggles when wrestling neutralized)

Betting Trends

AKA as favorites (-150 to -300): 80-85% win rate (strong chalk)
AKA as underdogs (+150 to +250): 40-45% win rate (live dogs, underpriced)
Five-round underdogs: 50-55% win rate (huge value; cardio edge underpriced)

Key insight: AKA fighters as underdogs in five-round fights are the single most profitable bet in UFC. Markets systematically underprice championship cardio.

American Top Team (ATT) Win Rates

ATT excels in striking matchups but shows vulnerability in wrestling-heavy fights and five-rounders.

Overall win rate (2015-2025): 66-70%

By Fight Type and Matchup

Three-round fights: 68-72%
Five-round fights: 62-66% (cardio variance hurts)
Striking-heavy matchups: 72-76%
Grappling-heavy matchups: 58-62%

By Opponent Camp

Vs regional camps: 75-78%
Vs elite camps: 60-64%
Vs AKA: 45-50% (wrestling disadvantage)

Betting Trends

ATT as slight favorites (-130 to -180): 70-75% win rate
ATT as heavy favorites (-250+): 78-82% win rate
ATT as underdogs (+120 to +200): 35-40% win rate (slightly underperform underdog baseline)

Key insight: ATT fighters are best bets as moderate favorites in striking matchups. Fade them as underdogs vs wrestling-heavy opponents.

City Kickboxing Win Rates

City Kickboxing has the best win rate among elite camps and the most systematic underdog value in UFC betting.

Overall win rate (2015-2025): 74-78% (best among elite camps)

By Fight Type

Three-round fights: 72-76%
Five-round fights: 80-85% (game-planning edge compounds)
Title fights: 82-88% (elite preparation for biggest stages)
Rematches: 85-90% (adjustment edge is massive)

By Opponent Style

Vs brawlers/aggressive strikers: 80-85% (counter-striking dominance)
Vs technical strikers: 68-72% (competitive)
Vs elite wrestlers: 60-65% (TDD improving but still vulnerable)

Betting Trends

City KB as favorites (-150 to -250): 85-90% win rate (crushing chalk)
City KB as underdogs (+150 to +300): 48-52% win rate (massively underpriced; best dog value in UFC)
Rematches (any odds): 85%+ win rate (automatic bet)

Key insight: City Kickboxing as underdogs +150 or longer is the most consistent value bet in UFC betting. Market underprices fight IQ by 10-15%.

Shurzy Tip: City Kickboxing's 48-52% underdog win rate vs the 32% league baseline equals +16 percentage points of value. This isn't variance. It's systematic mispricing you should exploit every time.

Sanford MMA Win Rates

Sanford dominates three-round fights but fades in five-rounders, creating clear betting applications.

Overall win rate (2015-2025): 68-72%

By Fight Type

Three-round fights: 72-76% (explosive edge)
Five-round fights: 58-62% (cardio concerns manifest)
Fights ending in Round 1-2: 78-82%
Fights going to Round 3: 62-66%

Finishing Rate

KO/TKO: 42-46% of wins (highest among elite camps)
Submissions: 22-26% of wins
Decisions: 28-36% of wins (lowest decision rate)

Betting Trends

Sanford in three-rounders: 72-76% win rate
Sanford in five-rounders: 58-62% win rate (fade at heavy chalk)
"Under 2.5 rounds" prop: Hits 55-60% of time (league average ~45%)

Key insight: Back Sanford fighters in three-round bouts. Fade them as favorites in five-rounders against cardio-heavy opponents.

Head-to-Head Camp Matchup Win Rates

Understanding how camps perform against each other creates systematic edges.

AKA vs ATT: AKA 55-60% (wrestling beats striking)
AKA vs City Kickboxing: AKA 52-55% (close; stylistic toss-up)
ATT vs City Kickboxing: ATT 48-52% (even; slight City KB edge)
AKA vs Regional: AKA 78-82% (dominant)
City Kickboxing vs Regional: City KB 80-85% (dominant)
Sanford vs AKA: AKA 58-62% (AKA cardio wins late)

Betting application: When AKA faces ATT, automatically adjust AKA fighter +5% in your probability model. When City Kickboxing faces regional camp, add +10-12%.

Performance Trends by Fight Context

Camp performance varies significantly based on fight context, creating exploitable patterns.

Undercard vs Main Card Performance

Elite camps on main card:

AKA: 74-78% win rate
ATT: 66-70% win rate
City Kickboxing: 78-82% win rate
Sanford: 66-70% win rate

Key insight: City Kickboxing fighters perform better on big stages. ATT and Sanford perform slightly worse under pressure.

Betting edge: Back City Kickboxing fighters on PPV main cards at any reasonable odds. Fade Sanford on biggest stages at heavy chalk.

Short-Notice Performance (Under 4 Weeks)

Elite camp short-notice win rates:

AKA: 55-60% (cardio still there, but preparation suffers)
ATT: 50-55% (depth helps, but still disadvantaged)
City Kickboxing: 48-52% (game-planning edge erased)
Sanford: 58-62% (athleticism carries; best short-notice camp)

League-wide short-notice: 35-40% win rate

Key insight: Even elite camps struggle short-notice, but Sanford's athleticism-first approach translates best. AKA and City Kickboxing lose their primary edges (cardio prep, game-planning).

Opponent Quality-Adjusted Win Rates

Elite camps vs ranked opponents (top 15):

City Kickboxing: 72-76% (elite)
AKA: 68-72% (elite)
ATT: 62-66% (strong)
Sanford: 60-64% (solid)
Regional camps: 45-50% (baseline)

Key insight: City Kickboxing and AKA maintain elite win rates even against ranked competition. ATT and Sanford regress slightly. Regional camps are massively outmatched.

Betting Strategy: Applying Camp Win Rate Data

Turn statistical edges into systematic betting rules.

Rule 1: Back City Kickboxing Underdogs Automatically

Their 48-52% underdog win rate vs 32% league baseline equals +16 percentage points of value. This is the most consistent edge in UFC betting.

Rule 2: AKA in Five-Round Fights

78-82% win rate in five-rounders vs 68% league-wide favorite rate means bet them at any odds under -300. Their cardio edge is systematically underpriced.

Rule 3: Fade Sanford in Five-Rounders at Heavy Chalk

58-62% win rate as five-round favorites below -200 equals negative value. Their explosiveness doesn't last 25 minutes.

Rule 4: ATT as Moderate Favorites in Striking Matchups

72-76% win rate in striking-heavy fights means bet them -150 to -200 when matchup favors technical striking.

Rule 5: Jackson-Wink in Rematches

75-80% win rate means bet them even at -250 if rematch context exists. Greg Jackson's adjustment ability is elite.

Shurzy Tip: These aren't suggestions. These are statistical edges that have held for years. If you're not systematically betting City Kickboxing underdogs and AKA five-rounders, you're leaving money on the table.

Conclusion

Camp win rates reveal systematic edges markets consistently misprice. City Kickboxing underdogs outperform by 16%, AKA five-round fighters dominate at 80%+, and Sanford's explosive style collapses in championship rounds.

By tracking camp-specific performance across fight contexts (five-rounders, rematches, undercard vs main card, opponent quality), sharp bettors convert institutional data into predictable profits. The edge isn't hidden. It's just invisible to bettors who ignore infrastructure and chase highlights.

Most bettors bet individual fights. Sharp bettors bet statistical patterns that repeat across hundreds of fights. Know the numbers, trust the data, and bet the systematic edges that casual money ignores. That's how you beat UFC betting long-term.

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