UFC Betting Explained: Method of Victory Odds Explained

Method of Victory betting is where UFC betting shifts from predicting outcomes to predicting how outcomes occur. It's a refinement layer that transforms a binary choice (Fighter A wins or Fighter B wins) into specific victory pathways: knockout, submission, or decision. This specificity creates both complexity and opportunity. The market struggles to accurately price how fighters win because it requires simultaneously understanding fighter tendencies, opponent defensive profiles, and stylistic matchups. This creates consistent mispricings where sophisticated bettors find substantial value that casual bettors miss entirely.

What Is the Method of Victory?

Method of Victory is a wager specifying not just who wins, but how they win. The three primary methods are:

KO/TKO (Knockout/Technical Knockout): The fighter wins by striking damage. The opponent is either rendered unconscious or the referee stops the fight because the fighter can't defend themselves.

Submission: The fighter wins by forcing their opponent to tap out via chokehold, armbar, leg lock, or other joint manipulation.

Decision: The fight goes the distance and judges decide a winner (Unanimous, Split, or Majority decision). The fighter doesn't finish but accumulates enough strikes/takedowns/control to win on scorecards.

Example pricing for Makhachev vs. Poirier:

• Makhachev KO/TKO: +350
• Makhachev Submission: +400
• Makhachev Decision: +200
• Poirier KO/TKO: +800
• Poirier Submission: +1200
• Poirier Decision: +250

These odds reflect the market's probability for each outcome. Makhachev is favored to win (-180 moneyline implied 64.3% win probability). The market breaks this down: roughly 18% KO, 12% submission, 34% decision.

Read more: The Complete Guide to UFC Odds & Betting Lines

Converting Method of Victory Odds to Implied Probability

Every Method of Victory odd carries implied probability.

Formula: (100 ÷ (Odds + 100)) × 100

Examples:

• +350 odds (Makhachev KO): (100 ÷ 450) × 100 = 22.2% implied probability
• +1200 odds (Poirier Submission): (100 ÷ 1300) × 100 = 7.7% implied probability
• +200 odds (Makhachev Decision): (100 ÷ 300) × 100 = 33.3% implied probability

The higher the odds, the lower the probability. A fighter at +1200 is a 7.7% underdog to win by that specific method.

Shurzy Tip: Add up all the implied probabilities for one fighter. If they total way more than the moneyline implies, that's juice. Method of Victory props carry 20%+ juice compared to 4-5% on moneylines.

Why Method of Victory Odds Matter

Moneyline vs. Method of Victory comparison:

• Makhachev moneyline: -180 (64.3% implied win probability)
• Makhachev Method of Victory breakdown: 22% KO + 12% submission + 34% decision = 68% implied

Notice the discrepancy? 68% is higher than 64.3% moneyline implies. This reveals how the market prices the different victory methods and where value hides.

Strategic insight: If you believe Makhachev has 70% true probability of winning but you're uncertain about how he wins, the moneyline at -180 might be fair. But if you're specifically confident he wins by decision (not KO or submission), then betting a decision at +200 offers value if you think decision wins are underpriced.

Read more: How Oddsmakers Set UFC Lines

Method of Victory for Different Fighter Archetypes

Elite Knockout Artists:

• Historical pattern: 70%+ finish rate, 85%+ of finishes are KOs
• Expected pricing: KO odds around +250 to +350
• Market tendency: Overvalues KO probability based on recent highlight finishes
• Strategy: Fade KO when next opponent has elite defense, bet decision

Elite Grapplers:

• Historical pattern: 35-50% finish rate, 80%+ of finishes are submissions
• Expected pricing: Submission odds around +300 to +600
• Market tendency: Dramatically undervalues submission probability against poor ground defense
• Strategy: Hammer submission at +400+ when opponent has weak takedown defense

Balanced Fighters:

• Historical pattern: 55-65% finish rate, 50/50 split between KO and submission
• Expected pricing: All three methods fairly distributed
• Market tendency: Overweights recent method (if last win was KO, market inflates next KO odds)
• Strategy: Fade recency bias, bet undervalued method

Defensive Wrestlers:

• Historical pattern: 30-40% finish rate, 90%+ of finishes are decisions
• Expected pricing: Decision odds around +150 to +250
• Market tendency: Undervalues decision probability, overvalues submission
• Strategy: Bet decision heavily when wrestler faces striker

Shurzy Tip: Elite grapplers facing strikers with poor takedown defense? Bet submission at +400 and higher. Market consistently underprices this.

Real-World Examples: Method of Victory Value

Example 1: Knockout Artist vs. Elite Wrestler

Fighter A: 78% finish rate, 87% of finishes are KOs
Fighter B: Elite wrestler with strong chin

Market pricing (Fighter A):

• KO: +250 (28.6% implied)
• Submission: +500 (16.7% implied)
• Decision: +200 (33.3% implied)

Your analysis: Fighter A is an elite striker, but Fighter B has elite wrestling defense. Against elite wrestlers, elite strikers finish only 35-40%. You estimate Fighter A: 35% KO, 5% submission, 24% decision.

Value identification:

• Market prices Fighter A KO at +250 (28.6% implied)
• You estimate 35% true KO probability
• Edge: +6.4% on Fighter A KO

Action: Bet Fighter A KO at +250

Why value exists: Market used Fighter A's historical KO rate without adjusting for matchup. Against elite wrestling defense, KO rate drops. But 35% KO is still reasonable, making +250 underpriced.

Example 2: Wrestler vs. Striker in Favorable Matchup

Fighter C: Elite wrestler, 35% finish rate, 80% submissions
Fighter D: Elite striker with poor takedown defense (giving up 3.2 takedowns per 15 min)

Market pricing (Fighter C):

• Submission: +600 (14.3% implied)
• Decision: +250 (28.6% implied)

Your analysis: Fighter C will take Fighter D down within 90 seconds. On the ground, Fighter C is elite submission specialist. If 70% of Fighter C wins are submissions and moneyline implies 39.2% win rate: 39.2% × 0.70 = 27.4% submission probability.

Value identification:

• Market prices submission at +600 (14.3% implied)
• You estimate 27.4% true probability
• Edge: +13.1% on submission

Action: Hammer Fighter C submission at +600

Why value exists: Market dramatically undervalues submission specialists against poor-takedown-defense striker. They price using general rates without adjusting for matchup.

Read more: Why UFC Lines Move

The Juice Problem in Method of Victory

Method of Victory odds carry more juice than moneylines because the market splits probability three ways.

Example breakdown:

• Fighter A KO: +250 (28.6% implied)
• Fighter A Sub: +500 (16.7% implied)
• Fighter A Dec: +200 (33.3% implied)
• Fighter B KO: +800 (11.1% implied)
• Fighter B Sub: +1200 (7.7% implied)
• Fighter B Dec: +250 (28.6% implied)
• Total: 126% (26% juice!)

The 26% juice reflects three factors:

• Splitting the probability three ways (inherently less efficient)
• Sportsbook hedging uncertainty
• Lower volume on props (less sharp money attacking, wider margins)

Professional bettors account for this elevated juice. A +EV bet must overcome 26% juice instead of 4.5% juice on moneylines.

Strategic Approach to Method of Victory Betting

Step 1: Establish moneyline baseline
Determine moneyline implied probability for each fighter first.

Step 2: Analyze fighter finishing profiles
Look at historical finish rates: KOs, submissions, decisions. Pay special attention to finishes against elite competition.

Step 3: Adjust for matchup context
A striker's KO rate drops against elite wrestlers. A grappler's submission rate stays high against strikers with poor takedown defense.

Step 4: Estimate method probabilities
Of Fighter A's 64.3% moneyline probability, estimate what percentage comes from KO, submission, and decision.

Step 5: Compare to market pricing
Find where your estimates differ significantly from market implied probabilities.

Step 6: Identify undervalued methods
Bet when your probability estimate exceeds market implied probability by 5%+.

Read more: Understanding Line Shopping

Common Method of Victory Mistakes

Using general finish rates without adjustment: A fighter's 70% finish rate doesn't apply to this specific fight. Adjustment for opponent style is critical.

Recency bias: A fighter with 3 consecutive KO wins gets priced for more KOs. But that might reflect weaker recent opponents, not improved finishing.

Overvaluing submission specialists against anyone: A submission specialist's rate drops against elite grapplers. Against strikers with poor ground defense, it stays high.

Not accounting for championship effects: Championship fights have lower finish rates. Decision probability increases, KO probability decreases.

Ignoring juice in prop evaluation: Method of Victory has 20%+ juice. A method needs higher true probability edge to be +EV compared to moneyline bets.

Method of Victory and Line Shopping

Method of Victory odds show more variance across books than moneylines because fewer sharp bettors attack props.

Example variance:

Book

A KO

A Sub

A Dec

DraftKings

+250

+500

+200

FanDuel

+240

+480

+210

BetMGM

+270

+520

+190

Fighter A KO ranges from +240 to +270. That's 30 cents of variance. On a $1,000 bet:

• +240 pays $3,400
• +270 pays $3,700
• $300 difference

Professional bettors check 4-6 books for every Method of Victory bet.

Read more: Opening vs Closing Odds in UFC

Conclusion

Method of Victory betting offers substantial value because the market struggles to accurately price how fighters win. The complexity of analyzing fighter tendencies against specific opponent defensive profiles creates consistent mispricings.

Method of Victory isn't for casual bettors. It requires matchup analysis, stylistic understanding, and the discipline to skip bets when value doesn't exist. But that complexity means less sharp money competition and more opportunities for those who do the work.

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