UFC Betting Explained: UFC Moneyline Odds Explained

The moneyline is the foundation of UFC betting. It's the simplest, most direct wager: pick which fighter wins. Unlike team sports with spreads and point totals, UFC betting revolves around moneylines because individual performance determines outcome. There are no teammates to bail you out. Understanding moneyline odds is the first critical skill any UFC bettor must master. Yet most casual bettors misunderstand how odds work, what they represent, and how to identify when moneylines offer value.

What is a Moneyline Bet?

A moneyline is a wager on which fighter wins the fight, period. No rounds, no method of victory, no complications. Fighter A wins or Fighter B wins. The moneyline odds indicate the probability the sportsbook assigns to each outcome and the profit you'll make based on your stake.

Example: Makhachev vs. Poirier

• Makhachev listed at -180
• Poirier listed at +155

This means the sportsbook believes Makhachev is favored to win. If you bet Makhachev, you must risk $180 to win $100 profit (total return $280). If you bet Poirier, you risk $100 to win $155 profit (total return $255).

Read more: The Complete Guide to UFC Odds & Betting Lines

American Odds Format: Negative and Positive

UFC moneylines use American odds format, which splits into two categories.

Negative odds (-180, -200, -300): The favorite. The negative number indicates how much you must risk to win $100.

• -180: Risk $180 to win $100. Total return: $280
• -200: Risk $200 to win $100. Total return: $300
• -300: Risk $300 to win $100. Total return: $400

The higher the negative number, the stronger the favorite. -300 is a much bigger favorite than -180 because you're risking more money to win the same $100.

Positive odds (+150, +200, +300): The underdog. The positive number indicates your profit on a $100 stake.

• +150: Risk $100 to win $150. Total return: $250
• +200: Risk $100 to win $200. Total return: $300
• +300: Risk $100 to win $300. Total return: $400

The higher the positive number, the bigger the underdog. +300 is a much bigger underdog than +150 because you make more money if they win (reflecting lower probability).

Shurzy Tip: The bigger the negative number on a favorite, the more you're risking for less reward. Sometimes underdogs offer better value.

Calculating Profit: The Math Behind Odds

For negative odds (favorites): Formula: (100 ÷ Absolute Value of Odds) × Stake = Profit

Example: Bet $500 on Makhachev at -180

• (100 ÷ 180) × $500 = $277.78 profit
• Total return: $777.78

For positive odds (underdogs): Formula: (Odds ÷ 100) × Stake = Profit

Example: Bet $500 on Poirier at +155

• (155 ÷ 100) × $500 = $775 profit
• Total return: $1,275

Understanding Implied Probability

Every moneyline odds carries an implied probability. The probability the sportsbook believes exists based on the odds. Understanding implied probability reveals whether odds offer value.

For negative odds: Formula: (Absolute Value of Odds ÷ (Absolute Value of Odds + 100)) × 100

Example: -180 odds

• (180 ÷ 280) × 100 = 64.3% implied probability

For positive odds: Formula: (100 ÷ (Odds + 100)) × 100

Example: +155 odds

• (100 ÷ 255) × 100 = 39.2% implied probability

Why this matters: If you believe a fighter has 50% true probability of winning but they're priced at +200 (33% implied), you've found value. The market is underestimating them.

Read more: How Oddsmakers Set UFC Lines

The Juice/Vig: The Sportsbook's Cut

In a perfectly fair market with two outcomes at 50/50 odds, both sides would be priced at exactly even money. But sportsbooks must profit, so they build in commission called juice or vig.

Real example: If fair odds would be:

• Makhachev: -177.8 (64% implied)
• Poirier: +177.8 (36% implied)
• Total: 100% (no juice)

But sportsbooks post:

• Makhachev: -180 (64.3% implied)
• Poirier: +155 (39.2% implied)
• Total: 103.5% (3.5% juice/house edge)

This means the sportsbook is taking 3.5% commission on all action, regardless of outcome.

How much juice matters: On 500 annual bets:

• -110 juice: $2,250 total juice paid
• -105 juice: $1,200 total juice paid
• Savings: $1,050 annually just from tighter juice

This is why professionals prioritize books with lower juice.

Favorite vs. Underdog Strategy

When to bet favorites:

• The favorite is undervalued (your probability estimate > implied probability)
• You have a specific edge (stylistic advantage, training camp intel)
• The moneyline offers reasonable juice (-180 or better)

Example: Makhachev at -180 (64.3% implied). Your research suggests 70% true probability. You have +5.7% edge. This is positive expected value.

When to bet underdogs:

• You identify specific value (they have paths to victory the market underprices)
• Public money inflates the favorite (creating underdog value)
• Stylistic advantages exist (underdog's strengths match favorite's weaknesses)

Example: Poirier at +155 (39.2% implied). Your research suggests 45% true probability. You have +5.8% edge and higher profit per bet if correct.

Shurzy Tip: A 50% win rate on +155 underdogs is profitable. A 50% win rate on -180 favorites loses money. This is why pros often specialize in underdogs.

Read more: Why UFC Lines Move

Moneyline Odds Comparison Across Sportsbooks

Different books price moneylines slightly differently due to their customer bases and risk management.

Book

Makhachev

Poirier

DraftKings

-185

+160

FanDuel

-180

+155

BetMGM

-182

+157

Pinnacle

-177

+152

On Poirier (+155 to +160), the 5-cent difference is meaningful. On a $10,000 bet: +155 pays $15,500 return vs. +160 paying $16,000 return. The $500 difference adds up across multiple bets.

This is why professionals maintain multiple accounts and shop moneylines to capture the best price.

Read more: Understanding Line Shopping

Reading Moneyline Movement: What It Signals

Moneyline odds move constantly as new information emerges and betting action flows. Understanding why lines move reveals valuable information.

Line moving toward underdog: If Makhachev moves from -200 to -180 (gets worse odds), it signals:

• New information suggesting Poirier is better than expected
• Sharp money betting Poirier heavily
• Public money on Makhachev forcing books to adjust

Line moving toward favorite: If Makhachev moves from -160 to -180 (gets better odds for bettor), it signals:

• New information confirming Makhachev's advantage
• Sharp money confirming their Makhachev bet

Reverse line movement (line moving opposite public betting direction) is a powerful signal that sharp money disagrees with public money. When 75% of bets are on Makhachev but his line gets worse, sharp professionals are hammering Poirier.

Read more: Opening vs Closing Odds in UFC

Calculating Break-Even Rate

Understanding your break-even rate (the win percentage needed to profit) is critical for discipline.

For favorites at -180: Break-even = 180 ÷ 280 = 64.3%

You must win 64.3% of -180 moneyline bets to break even.

For underdogs at +155: Break-even = 100 ÷ 255 = 39.2%

You only need to win 39.2% of +155 bets to break even.

The implication: A 50% win rate on +155 underdogs is profitable. A 50% win rate on -180 favorites is a losing bet. This is why professionals often specialize in underdogs. They need lower accuracy rates to profit.

When Moneyline Odds Offer Value

Value exists when your probability estimate > implied probability.

Example 1: Undervalued favorite

• You: "Makhachev wins 70%"
• Market: -180 (64.3% implied)
• Edge: 70% - 64.3% = +5.7% edge
• Action: Bet Makhachev

Example 2: Undervalued underdog

• You: "Poirier wins 45%"
• Market: +155 (39.2% implied)
• Edge: 45% - 39.2% = +5.8% edge
• Action: Bet Poirier (higher expected value because underdog pays more)

Example 3: No edge (skip the bet)

• You: "Fighter wins 50%"
• Market: -110 (52.4% implied)
• Edge: 50% - 52.4% = -2.4% edge
• Action: Skip the bet (negative expected value)

Only bet moneylines when you identify positive expected value.

Common Moneyline Mistakes

Betting favorites without value: Casual bettors assume favorites are "safer." But -200 needs 66.7% win rate to break even. If you're only 55% accurate, you lose money despite feeling accurate.

Ignoring juice: A -110 favorite requires 52.4% win rate to break even. A -120 favorite requires 54.5%. Small juice differences compound into thousands of dollars.

Not comparing books: Settling for one book's moneyline instead of shopping. If one book offers +160 and another +155 on an underdog you like, the 5-cent difference is real money.

Betting every fight: Most casual bettors bet every moneyline they see, creating negative EV bets repeatedly. Only bet when edge exists.

Chasing losses: Losing a moneyline bet and immediately betting another to "get it back." This is emotional betting, not strategic.

Conclusion

The moneyline is UFC betting's foundation. Understanding American odds format, calculating implied probability, recognizing juice, and identifying value separates winning bettors from losing ones.

Key takeaways:

• Negative odds = favorites (risk more to win less)
• Positive odds = underdogs (risk less to win more)
• Implied probability reveals market expectations
• Juice is the sportsbook's commission (minimize it through line shopping)
• Value exists when your probability estimate exceeds implied probability
• Break-even rates differ dramatically between favorites and underdogs
• Line shopping captures better prices and compounds into real profit

Only bet moneylines when you identify positive expected value. Calculate implied probability, estimate true probability, compare across books, and act when edge exists. Everything else is gambling, not betting.

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