UFC Betting Explained: Which Divisions Have the Most Finishes

Heavyweight leads all UFC divisions in overall finish rate, but light heavyweight and middleweight are close behind and, in some stretches, even produce a higher share of first-round or stoppage endings. Lower men's weights and all women's divisions see far fewer finishes, with flyweight and strawweight in particular skewing heavily toward decisions. Yet casual bettors bet all divisions the same way, chasing knockouts everywhere because knockouts trend on social media.

Current Finish-Rate Leaders by Division

A 2025 breakdown of UFC finish rates by weight class shows clear patterns that create betting edges if you know where to look.

Read more: The Complete Guide to UFC Weight Classes

Heavyweight

KO/TKO: 52.1%
Submissions: 14.6%
Total stoppages: 66.6%
Decisions: 31.5%

This is the highest overall finish and knockout rate. Roughly two out of three heavyweight fights end before the cards. One punch ends everything at 265 lbs.

Light Heavyweight

Overall stoppages: Just over 60%, with about 40-45% by KO/TKO and mid-teens by submission.

Light Heavyweight also posts one of the highest first-round finish shares, about one-third of fights ending in Round 1.

Middleweight

Frequently cited as "finish city" in recent decade-long breakdowns, with total stoppage rates around the high-50s to low-60s and a KO/TKO share near 50% in some 2025 data.

Middleweight and Light Heavyweight are tied or close for the highest first-round finish rate (approximately 33%).

In aggregated long-term stats, heavyweight clearly tops finish rate, but middleweight and light heavyweight run very close in practice and often beat it for specific years in knockout percentage or first-round stoppages.

Shurzy Tip: When you see a heavyweight, light heavyweight, or middleweight fight priced at Over 1.5 (-110), bet Under immediately. The math says 60%+ of these fights finish early, but the market prices them like coin flips. This is free money if you're patient.

Read more: Weight Class Betting Trends

Mid and Lower Men's Divisions

Fight-outcome tables that aggregate the full UFC era show a smooth decline in finish rate as you go down from middleweight to flyweight. Physics matters. Power scales with weight. Cardio improves as weight drops. These create predictable patterns.

Welterweight & Lightweight

Roughly half of fights end inside the distance and half by decision. KO/TKO in the mid-30s to low-40s, submissions in mid-teens.

These are "balanced" divisions where you cannot assume a finish the way you can at Heavyweight/Light Heavyweight/Middleweight, but finish rates are still materially higher than at bantamweight or flyweight.

From a betting standpoint, you can't lean hard one way. Matchup and durability matter more than divisional trend. This is where style analysis becomes critical.

Featherweight & Bantamweight

Total finishes drop into the approximately 40% range, with the rest decisions. KO/TKO dips into the 20s and low 30s as speed rises and power per shot falls.

Volume and cardio start mattering more than power. Technical skill matters more than physical attributes.

Men's Flyweight

Historically one of the lowest finish rates among men, with around 35-40% of fights ending inside the distance and the majority going to decision.

Speed is extreme, power is minimal, cardio is elite. Decisions dominate approximately 60% of outcomes.

From a betting standpoint: Lightweight and Welterweight require matchup analysis more than divisional defaults. Featherweight, Bantamweight, and Flyweight should tilt clearly toward overs and "fight goes the distance", with finishes requiring either stylistic mismatches or durability flags.

Shurzy Tip: If you're betting Under in a flyweight or bantamweight fight without a specific reason (like one fighter has a glass chin), you're just gambling. Default to Over and decision until evidence proves otherwise.

Read more: How Style Differs by Division

Women's Divisions and Finishes

A 2023 style-weight analysis across elite MMA found women's fights end more often by decision than men's, with finish rates significantly lower on average. Division-level UFC stats and multi-year aggregations echo this consistently.

Women's Strawweight & Flyweight

Decision is by far the most common result, with many seasons seeing only approximately 30-40% of fights ending by KO/TKO or submission combined. The other 60-70% go to the cards.

Technical skill is extremely high. Power is minimal. Cardio is elite. Decisions dominate.

Women's Bantamweight & Featherweight

Finishes are more common than at 115/125 lbs, helped by power outliers like Amanda Nunes and Cris Cyborg, but decisions still dominate most matchups outside of those rare power punchers.

One 2025 data snippet notes women's bantamweight having the highest submission share of any division (approximately 30%) even while decisions remain the plurality outcome overall. This creates unique betting dynamics where submission props offer value.

Takeaway: Across all four women's divisions, overs and "fight goes the distance" are structurally favored unless you have clear evidence of knockout power and defensive holes on both sides. Default to overs and decisions until a specific matchup proves otherwise.

Example: Women's strawweight fight priced at Over 2.5 (-110) has 52.4% implied probability, but true probability is approximately 75% because only 25-30% finish early. This is 22.6% edge on Over that casual bettors miss because they expect violence that never materializes.

Read more: Division Strength & Depth Rankings

Simple Ranking: Divisions with the Most Finishes

Using combined historical tables and 2025 finish-rate summaries, the divisions with the highest finish percentages over large samples look like this, from most to least finishes:

1. Heavyweight – Clear number 1 in overall stoppage rate and KO/TKO share (66.6% stoppage rate)
2. Light Heavyweight – Very high stoppage and first-round finish rates (approximately 60% stoppage rate)
3. Middleweight – "Finish city": high knockout percentage and strong overall inside-the-distance numbers (approximately 55-60% stoppage rate)
4. Welterweight / Lightweight – Roughly break-even between finishes and decisions (approximately 50-55% stoppage rate)
5. Featherweight / Bantamweight / Men's Flyweight – Decision-heavy compared to above (approximately 35-45% stoppage rate)
6. All Women's Divisions – Lowest collective finish rates, highest decision share (approximately 25-40% stoppage rate)

For betting: In Heavyweight, Light Heavyweight, and Middleweight, your default should be "this fight finishes more often than not," then you look for reasons it might go long. Unders and inside-the-distance props start as the baseline assumption. In lighter men's and all women's divisions, start from "this goes to decision more often than not," and only move to unders and inside-the-distance if styles and durability strongly justify it.

Calibrating totals and method-of-victory bets to each division's true finishing profile is an easy, structural way to move closer to correct pricing before you even start handicapping individual matchups. This is the foundation. Everything else is adjustment.

Shurzy Tip: The simplest edge in UFC betting is betting Unders in heavyweight/light heavyweight/middleweight and betting Overs in bantamweight/flyweight/women's divisions. The market prices all divisions similarly, but the physics say otherwise.

Read more: The Impact of Weight Cutting on Divisions

Betting Applications by Division

Heavyweight, Light Heavyweight, Middleweight (Finish-Heavy Divisions)

Default assumptions:

• This fight finishes more often than not (60%+ stoppage rate)
• Knockouts are the primary finish method
• Unders and inside-the-distance offer systematic value
• Decisions are overpriced by markets that price all divisions similarly

Specific betting angles:

• Bet Under rounds unless you have strong evidence for distance
• Bet inside-the-distance versus goes-the-distance
• Bet KO/TKO as method-of-victory over decision
• Fade decision props unless both fighters are defensive specialists

Example: Heavyweight fight priced at Over 1.5 (-110) implies 52.4% probability of going past Round 1. True probability is approximately 35% because 65% finish in Round 1 or 2. This is 17% edge on Under that exists purely from weight class, before you even analyze the fighters.

Welterweight, Lightweight (Balanced Divisions)

Default assumptions:

• No strong lean either direction (approximately 50/50 finish versus decision)
• Matchup analysis matters more than divisional trend
• Style clash determines outcome more than weight class defaults

Specific betting angles:

• Don't rely on divisional defaults, analyze matchup
• Wrestling advantage tilts toward decision
• Striker versus striker tilts toward finish or decision based on power
• Volume striker versus power puncher tilts toward decision

Featherweight, Bantamweight, Flyweight, All Women's (Decision-Heavy Divisions)

Default assumptions:

• This fight goes to decision more often than not (60-75% decision rate)
• Finishes require specific stylistic mismatches or durability issues
• Overs and goes-the-distance offer systematic value
• Finishes are underpriced by markets expecting violence

Specific betting angles:

• Bet Over rounds unless you have strong evidence for early finish
• Bet goes-the-distance versus inside-the-distance
• Bet decision as method-of-victory
• Fade knockout props unless one fighter has glass chin or extreme power outlier

Example: Women's flyweight fight priced at Over 2.5 (-110) implies 52.4% probability of going past Round 2. True probability is approximately 75% because only 25% finish early. This is 22.6% edge on Over that exists purely from division characteristics.

Conclusion

Heavyweight leads all UFC divisions in finish rate at 66.6%, followed by light heavyweight at approximately 60% and middleweight at approximately 55-60%. These divisions should default to unders and inside-the-distance bets unless specific matchup factors override the baseline.

Featherweight, bantamweight, flyweight, and all women's divisions finish at rates between 25-45%, meaning decisions dominate 55-75% of outcomes. These divisions should default to overs and goes-the-distance bets unless specific matchup factors override the baseline.

Yet casual bettors bet all divisions the same way, chasing knockouts everywhere because knockouts are exciting and trend on social media. That systematic ignorance creates massive edges for disciplined bettors who understand that physics matters, power scales with weight, and cardio improves as weight drops.

Stop betting all divisions the same way. Start betting the structural finish rates that determine outcomes before fighters even enter the cage. Bet Unders in the big-boy divisions. Bet Overs in the lighter divisions. That's where the easiest money in UFC betting lives.

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