UFC Fighters Most Likely to Lose Their Belt in 2026

Which Champions Are Almost Certain to Lose Their Belt?

These title holders are under the most pressure from contenders, circumstance, or age. Betting against their retention at any reasonable price carries genuine value.

Mackenzie Dern at women's strawweight received only a 3/10 retention likelihood from The Independent, the lowest score given to any current champion. Zhang Weili is expected to return to strawweight after her flyweight title loss to Shevchenko, and Dern secured the vacant belt over Jandiroba rather than a convincing string of top-level performances. The belt is essentially on loan until Weili's return fight is made.

Betting angle: Zhang Weili to be strawweight champion at year's end is one of the safest futures bets available. Her striking pace and physical tools create problems for Dern's grappling approach that previous strawweight opponents have not fully solved.

Joshua Van at flyweight received only a 5/10 retention likelihood and won the belt in 26 seconds because Alexandre Pantoja dislocated his elbow. Every major outlet predicts a Pantoja rematch and every outlet expects Pantoja to win it back. The YouTube breakdown of "how every champion loses their belt" specifically marks this as Van's fluke title run being exposed.

Betting angle: Pantoja to be flyweight champion at year's end is the most obvious futures bet in the entire sport right now. His title shot futures at any reasonable price represent clear value given the universal prediction consensus.

Alexander Volkanovski at featherweight turns 38 in September. Uncrowned's panel had zero panelists picking him to hold the belt at year's end. TheScore predicts Lerone Murphy ends his reign. ESPN notes there is no pressure on him because his legacy is already secured, which reads as a soft admission that a loss is genuinely expected.

Betting angle: New featherweight champion futures before the Evloev vs. Murphy result narrows the market is the timing play. Whichever of those two wins on March 21 becomes the most logical next challenger, and their championship odds before that fight result is confirmed are worth positioning on now.

Read more: The Complete Guide to UFC Futures Betting

Which Champions Are Under Real Pressure but Likely to Survive?

These champions face legitimate title threats but have enough skill advantages to make retention the correct primary bet while still justifying small hedge positions on challengers.

Petr Yan at bantamweight holds a belt that has changed hands more than any other in the UFC over the past two years. Yan, O'Malley, Dvalishvili, back to Yan, all within a short window. TheScore predicts Dvalishvili takes it back, and MMA Junkie notes the belt simply does not stay put at 135.

Betting angle: Dvalishvili to reclaim the bantamweight title at plus money before the fight is formally announced is the specific position worth building. His retention odds as a futures bet carry value given the track record of this division.

Khamzat Chimaev at middleweight faces Sean Strickland at UFC 328. MMA Junkie named him a lock to retain, and the talent gap between them is significant. But Strickland's habit of winning when no one expects it and his specific volume output that creates problems for grappling-heavy champions keeps the upset scenario alive enough to deserve a small position.

Betting angle: Chimaev retention as the primary position with Strickland at plus-300 or beyond as a small hedge. Over rounds is worth layering in because Strickland's chin makes early finishes unlikely.

Tom Aspinall at heavyweight is sidelined with eye surgery rather than threatened by a superior opponent. MMA Junkie named him a lock with the predicted scenario being Gane winning an interim title while Aspinall recovers before Aspinall returns to unify. The threat to his reign is health, not challenger quality.

Betting angle: Aspinall to unify and end 2026 as undisputed champion. His year-end championship retention at any available price is worth backing given the scenario almost every analyst predicts.

Which Champions Are the Safest Retention Bets?

Islam Makhachev at welterweight is universally projected to retain despite having the most dangerous contender class around him. Rakhmonov, Morales, and Garry all create legitimate matchup questions, but Makhachev's complete skill set gives him advantages in every area that matters at the championship level.

Valentina Shevchenko at women's flyweight has no truly dominant challenger in sight. Her retention odds on futures boards carry value as the year progresses without a clear number one contender emerging.

Kayla Harrison at women's bantamweight defends against Amanda Nunes in the biggest women's fight of the year. Harrison won convincingly in the first fight, and while Nunes is the GOAT, age and ring rust narrow the gap without reversing it. Harrison's retention at moderate favorite prices is justified.

How to Build a Portfolio Around Belt Changes

The clearest approach is concentrating positions on the three most obvious belt changes: Pantoja reclaiming flyweight, a new featherweight champion from the Evloev or Murphy contender fight, and Zhang Weili reclaiming strawweight.

All three are near-consensus predictions across multiple outlets. All three are available at prices that still offer meaningful return rather than prohibitive chalk. Spreading across all three gives you coverage of the most likely outcomes without concentrating risk on any single fight result.

Add a small Dvalishvili bantamweight reclaim position for upside, and hedge the Chimaev fight with a small Strickland position to cover the upset scenario that his track record makes genuinely possible.

Before placing your next wager, take a look at the Live Odds on Shurzy. Compare current lines, futures markets, and betting trends across the NHL, NBA, MLB, UFC and more.

Read more: The Most Dangerous Underdogs in the UFC Ranked for 2026

Want more data-driven sports insights? Head over to the Shurzy Content Lab for rankings, predictions, and advanced analysis from our research team.