What If the NHL Shortened the Regular Season?

The NHL Won't Shorten the Season Anytime Soon

The league has historically fought hard to preserve an 82-game season. NHL proposals in labor negotiations explicitly center on "playing a full 82-game regular season and full playoffs."

Why? Revenue. More games equals more gate revenue, more TV revenue, more betting handle. The NHL isn't giving that up voluntarily.

Why the NHL protects 82 games:

• Gate revenue (more games equals more ticket sales)
• TV revenue (more games equals more national broadcasts)
• Betting handle (more games equals more betting action)
• Player salaries tied to revenue (fewer games means lower salaries)

The only way the season gets shorter is if the players force it in CBA negotiations. Don't expect that anytime soon.

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Fewer Games Means Higher Variance in Win Totals

From a betting standpoint, fewer games means less sample size. Win totals, division futures, and award markets get higher variance.

If the NHL cut to 65 games, a hot team going 15-5 in their first 20 games would be 23% into the season. In an 82-game season, that same 15-5 start is only 24.4% of the season.

Why fewer games increases variance:

• Hot starts matter more (less time for regression to mean)
• Injury luck matters more (one injury costs 7.7% of season vs. 6.1%)
• PDO heaters last longer (less time for shooting percentage and save percentage to regress)
• Win totals become harder to predict (smaller sample size)

Books would widen win total spreads. What's 47.5 wins in 82 games becomes 37.5 wins in 65 games. The juice increases because variance increases.

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Hot Goalie Plus PDO Heater Teams Become More Dangerous

In a shorter season, "hot goalie plus PDO heater" teams become more dangerous because there's less time for regression to wash out.

A goalie posting .930 save percentage over 20 games in an 82-game season will regress. A goalie posting .930 over 20 games in a 65-game season might sustain it.

Why hot goalies are more dangerous in shorter seasons:

• Less time for regression (smaller sample size)
• Variance can carry a team to playoffs (hot streaks matter more)
• Books can't price regression as aggressively (not enough time for mean reversion)

If the NHL shortened the season, betting against hot-start teams would be less profitable. They might actually sustain it through a shorter season.

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Books Would Widen Prices and Increase Juice

The books would adjust by widening prices (more juice, larger uncertainty bands).

Win totals would have bigger spreads. Division futures would have more juice. Award markets would be harder to price.

How books would adjust to shorter seasons:

• Win totals: wider spreads (47.5 becomes 45.5 to 49.5)
• Division futures: more juice (-110/-110 becomes -120/-120)
• Award markets: higher variance (MVP odds spread out more)

Books would protect themselves by increasing uncertainty bands. You'd pay more juice to bet the same markets.

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The First 1 to 2 Seasons Would Be Gold

The first 1 to 2 seasons after any schedule shock are typically where bettors find the most exploitable mispricings.

Books wouldn't know how to price a 65-game season. Their models are built on 82-game data. Sharp bettors who understand variance compression would clean up.

The inefficiencies after schedule shock:

• Win totals mispriced (books use 82-game baselines)
• Division futures mispriced (books don't adjust for smaller sample variance)
• Award markets mispriced (hot starts carry more weight)
• First month overs and unders mispriced (books don't adjust pace)

If the NHL ever shortens the season, hammer the markets in Year 1 before books adjust. The inefficiencies would be massive.

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The Bottom Line on Shorter NHL Seasons

The NHL won't shorten the season anytime soon. 82 games generates too much revenue. The league protects it in CBA negotiations.

But if they did shorten it, betting markets would explode with inefficiencies. Fewer games means higher variance. Win totals get harder to predict. Hot goalies and PDO heaters become more dangerous.

Books would widen prices and increase juice. You'd pay more to bet the same markets.

The first 1 to 2 seasons after the change would be gold for sharp bettors. Books wouldn't know how to price a shorter season. Sharp bettors who understand variance would profit.

Don't expect a shorter season. But if it happens, be ready to exploit the chaos.

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