Are We Entering the Era of 70-Win Parity?

The 70-Win Threshold Is Historically Rare

Only two teams in NBA history have won 70+ games in a single season. The 1995-96 Chicago Bulls went 72-10. The 2015-16 Golden State Warriors went 73-9.

Both teams had historic combinations of talent, health, and chemistry that are nearly impossible to replicate. The Bulls had Jordan, Pippen, and Rodman all in their primes with zero major injuries. The Warriors had Steph, Klay, and Draymond all healthy plus a revolutionary offensive system that opponents couldn't solve.

OKC's 24-1 start suggested they might join that club, but their 18-13 slide since proves the obvious:

• Sustaining 70-win pace requires zero injuries to key players
• The regular season grind wears down even the best teams
• Opponents study your system and adjust after 20-30 games
• Load management and rest games eat into win totals

The Thunder are still the best team in basketball, but they're trending toward 62-65 wins, not 70+. That's elite, but it's not historically dominant.

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Parity Is Higher Than It's Been in Decades

The most striking thing about the 2025-26 season isn't OKC's dominance. It's how many teams are legitimately good.

In the West, OKC, Denver, Houston, the Lakers, Minnesota, and even San Antonio are all legitimate contenders. In the East, Detroit, Cleveland, Boston (when healthy), and New York are all capable of making deep runs.

The gap between the 1-seed and the 8-seed is smaller than it's been in years:

• The 1-seed might finish with 62 wins
• The 8-seed might finish with 45 wins
• That's only a 17-game gap (historically it's been 20-25 games)

This is parity. No team is running away with the league. No team is going 73-9. The best teams are winning 60-65 games, and the worst playoff teams are winning 43-47 games. The distribution is compressed.

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Why 70-Win Teams Are Dead (For Now)

The structural reasons 70-win teams are unlikely in the current NBA come down to three factors: load management, CBA restrictions, and defensive evolution.

Load management means stars sit 10-15 games per season for rest. The Warriors in 2015-16 played Steph, Klay, and Draymond basically every game. That doesn't happen anymore. OKC rests SGA strategically. The Lakers rest LeBron on back-to-backs. Every contender load-manages their stars, which caps win totals at 60-65 even for great teams.

CBA restrictions make it harder to stack talent. The 2015-16 Warriors had four All-Stars (Steph, Klay, Draymond, and later KD). The new luxury tax penalties make assembling that level of talent financially prohibitive. OKC is great, but they don't have four All-Stars. Neither does anyone else.

Defensive evolution means opponents adjust faster:

• The Warriors in 2015-16 had a revolutionary offense that teams couldn't stop for months
• Modern teams study film obsessively and adjust within weeks
• OKC's 24-1 start happened partly because teams didn't know how to defend them yet
• Once opponents figured out their system, wins became harder

The combination of these three factors makes 70-win seasons nearly impossible under current NBA conditions.

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What This Means for Championship Futures

If 70-win dominance is dead and parity is higher, championship futures should be more distributed across multiple teams rather than concentrated in one or two favorites.

And that's exactly what we're seeing. OKC is the favorite at -150, but that's not overwhelming. Denver is at +400. Houston is at +700. The Lakers are at +600. Detroit is at +1400. Multiple teams have legitimate paths to the title.

Compare this to the Warriors' dynasty era when they opened at +150 or better every year and were prohibitive favorites. The market knew they were winning 70+ games and cruising to the Finals. That certainty doesn't exist anymore.

For bettors, this creates opportunity:

• Don't overload on the favorite (OKC at -150 isn't a lock)
• Spread bets across multiple contenders (Denver, Houston, Lakers all have value)
• Look for long shots with infrastructure (Detroit at +1400 is interesting)

Parity means the chalk is less reliable. The favorite wins less often. Upsets happen more frequently. That's good for bettors who understand variance and build portfolios rather than going all-in on one team.

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The Counter-Argument: OKC Could Still Do It

The optimistic case for a 70-win OKC season is that they're legitimately the best team since the 2015-16 Warriors.

SGA is an MVP-level player. Jalen Williams and Chet Holmgren are All-Star caliber. Their depth is absurd. Their defense is elite. If they get healthy in March and April, they could rattle off 15-20 wins in a row and finish with 68-70 wins.

But even the optimists admit the odds are low:

• They'd need zero major injuries to SGA, Williams, or Holmgren
• They'd need to stop load-managing stars on back-to-backs
• They'd need opponents to not figure out their defensive schemes

All three of those things are unlikely. The smart bet is OKC finishes with 62-65 wins, wins the 1-seed comfortably, and enters the playoffs as the favorite. That's elite, but it's not 70-win dominance.

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The Bottom Line on 70-Win Parity

We're not entering the era of 70-win parity because 70-win seasons don't exist anymore. Load management, CBA restrictions, and defensive evolution make it nearly impossible to sustain that level of dominance for 82 games.

Instead, we're entering the era of 60-65 win parity, where the best teams win 60-65 games, the playoff teams win 43-50 games, and the gap between 1-seed and 8-seed is compressed.

For bettors, this means championship futures are more distributed. The favorite isn't as reliable. Upsets happen more often. Spreading bets across multiple contenders makes more sense than going all-in on one team.

OKC is the best team in basketball, but they're not the 2015-16 Warriors. They'll win 62-65 games, enter the playoffs as the favorite, and probably win the title. But they're not going 73-9. That era is over.

Bet accordingly. Back multiple contenders. Don't overload on chalk. Embrace parity.

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