Basketball Betting October 20–26: NBA Best Bets to Make This Week

Early Spreads That Matter

The NBA is all about timing. A spread opening at –4 can close at –6.5 by tipoff. That’s a huge swing in basketball betting, especially in tight matchups.

This week, look at early underdog lines where public bias inflates favorites. Big-market teams like the Lakers, Knicks, and Celtics always draw heavy action, no matter how they’re actually playing. If you can grab the other side before the line shifts, you’re sitting on value.

Sharp play: Underdogs catching +5 or more against name-brand teams. In the first two weeks of the season, those spots have cashed more than favorites covering double-digit spreads.

Totals: Overs and Unders in Play

Over/unders are where NBA betting really separates sharps from casuals. The public loves overs—points, highlights, threes raining down. But books know that, and they set totals accordingly.

For October 20–26, the schedule is loaded with pace-versus-defense clashes.

• Overs worth hitting: When high-tempo teams like the Kings or Pacers face each other, totals in the 235–240 range are justified. If the number is under 235, grab it quick before the public drives it higher.
• Unders worth playing: Defensive-minded teams like the Heat or Timberwolves slow games down. Totals posted above 220 in those matchups are fade material.

Basketball betting this week is all about picking your spots on totals. Don’t blindly follow the public to the over.

Player Props: The Hidden Value

NBA player props are where sharp bettors feast. Points, rebounds, assists, and threes are markets that don’t get as much attention as spreads, which means sportsbooks are more likely to misprice them.

For example:

• Points props: Look for second options stepping up when a star is resting on a back-to-back. Books often inflate the star’s prop but underprice the role player’s line.
• Rebounds props: Target big men facing teams that shoot a ton of threes. Longer rebounds boost numbers for guards and wings.
• Assists props: Against defenses that collapse into the paint, ball-dominant guards can rack up dimes.

This week, schedule density matters. Teams with four games in six nights will rest players, creating unexpected prop value. If you’re paying attention, you’ll be ahead of the public.

Back-to-Backs and Travel Spots

One of the biggest edges in NBA betting this early in the season is schedule analysis. Back-to-backs, long road trips, and three-games-in-four-nights stretches all drain teams.

October 20–26 features a handful of teams in those exact spots. Fade them against fresher opponents, especially on the second night of a back-to-back. Totals often drop too—tired legs mean fewer threes and more unders cashing.

Sharp move: Bet against road teams on the second night of a back-to-back, especially if the spread is within five points. The market rarely adjusts enough for fatigue.

Parlay Bets for the Week

NBA parlays are pure flex, but they’re fun when you stack the right angles. For October 20–26, here’s a three-leg parlay worth a look:

• Underdog +5 against a big-market favorite
• Over 234.5 in a Kings vs Pacers style matchup
• Role player points prop over in a back-to-back rest spot

That’s a spread, a total, and a prop all in one. It’s not bankroll-safe, but it’s a ticket worth screenshotting if it hits.

Computer Picks vs. Market Lines

Model-based NBA computer picks are gaining steam, and they’re a great tool for spotting edges. When computer models project a game at –2.5 but the market is posting –5, you’ve got a potential play.

Don’t follow the models blindly—books know about them too. But if you see alignment between computer projections and sharp early money, you’re onto something.

Use these predictions as a starting point, then factor in injuries, rest, and line movement. That’s how you turn data into profit.

Line Shopping = Free Money

Basketball betting without line shopping is like driving with one eye closed. Every half-point matters. Totals especially—betting an over at 219.5 vs 221.5 is the difference between winning and pushing.

With online sports betting legal in so many states, you’ve got no excuse. Have two or three apps open, grab the best number, and lock it in before it moves.

Sharp bettors win over time because they get the best line. Public bettors lose over time because they take the first number they see.

Fading the NBA Public

The NBA betting public is predictable: they hammer overs, big names, and favorites. That’s your edge.

This week, expect the Lakers, Celtics, and Warriors to get hammered at the window. Totals for flashy teams will rise two or three points. That’s when you step in on the other side—fade the favorite, play the under, and ride the prop markets.

Betting isn’t about being right 100% of the time. It’s about being right where it matters: when the line is off because the public overreacted.

Final Thoughts: NBA Best Bets October 20–26

Basketball betting this week is all about timing, props, and fading the crowd. Grab underdog spreads before they shrink, pick your totals based on pace and defense, and lean into player props when the market misses. Watch for back-to-backs, shop your lines, and don’t be afraid to parlay for bragging rights.

The public will chase overs and favorites. Sharps will take the value on the other side. Which side do you want to be on?

Check out our full betting toolset to start spotting profitable lines.