Is This the Year Anthony Edwards Becomes "That Guy"?

What "That Guy" Actually Means in the NBA

The "that guy" designation in NBA culture carries specific weight. It means the player who single-handedly changes a playoff series, who opponents build their game plan around, who casual fans want to watch when they flip on an NBA game.

By that definition, Edwards is already there. His 2024 Olympic run with Team USA, where he became the breakout star of the gold medal squad, showing off his personality and dominance on an international stage, was essentially a coming-out party that confirmed the general public was ready to receive him.

What separates this season from his previous ones is the combination of maturity and explosiveness:

• Edwards in years 1-3 was clearly gifted but occasionally undisciplined (shot selection issues, defensive lapses born of coasting on athleticism)
• The 2025-26 version shows a player who understands when to be patient and when to detonate
• He reads the game faster
• His defensive engagement has followed suit

His improved pull-up jumper mechanics and three-point confidence have turned him from a great athlete who can score into an unstoppable offensive force. The league is starting to realize you can't game-plan around Edwards anymore. You just have to survive him.

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The Timberwolves Context and Why Winning Matters

Minnesota's success matters enormously to this narrative because MVP voters and casual fans alike place a premium on winning.

The Wolves are built around Edwards as the unambiguous lead option. The supporting cast provides legitimate playoff infrastructure:

• Rudy Gobert as the defensive anchor
• Julius Randle adding size and playmaking
• Naz Reid off the bench providing scoring punch

The question for the Wolves in 2025-26 is whether they can get back to the level they showed in the 2023-24 run to the Western Conference Finals. Edwards' individual ceiling in a playoff run is terrifying for opposing teams. His combination of burst, contact-finishing ability, perimeter shooting, and emotional intensity make him the type of player who can go for 40+ on any given night when the stakes are highest.

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The MVP Conversation and Where the Value Sits

The MVP race this season is heavily SGA-dominated, with Jokic lurking as always. Edwards' path to MVP recognition this year runs directly through the Wolves' seeding.

If Minnesota finishes 2nd or 3rd in the West with Ant as the clear catalyst, his candidacy becomes real. But with SGA currently at -210 on most books, the probability-adjusted value bet is less about this season's MVP and more about the 2027 and 2028 futures.

Here's where smart money should be looking:

2027 and 2028 MVP futures are where the real value lives. Edwards is 24. He's still improving. By 2027, he'll be 26 and entering his absolute prime. If the Wolves build around him properly and become a top-three seed in the West, his MVP odds will crater from long shots to favorites. Getting him at +1200 or +1500 now for future seasons is smart.

This season's MVP? Probably not, unless SGA or Jokic fall off dramatically. But Edwards is building his case for the next three to five years. The market is still pricing him as a young star with potential. The reality is he's already there.

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How to Actually Bet Anthony Edwards Right Now

The betting angles on Edwards are straightforward. His production is consistent enough that you can hammer certain props with confidence.

ANT PPG props (over/under 29.5) are excellent game-to-game plays given his consistency. He's hit that threshold frequently this season. When the Wolves need him to score, he delivers. Monitor the opponent's defense closely. Against weak perimeter defenses, the over is money.

ANT Finals MVP futures in any year the Wolves make a deep run represent lottery-level value with legitimate hit probability. If Minnesota gets to the Finals and Edwards is averaging 30+ PPG in the playoffs, he's winning Finals MVP. The narrative writes itself.

Wolves Western Conference odds are the macro bet. If Edwards is this version of himself, Minnesota is a threat to any team in the West. Their conference title odds may be undervalued relative to the ceiling Edwards represents. Getting the Wolves at +800 or +1000 to win the West when they have the best young scoring wing in the conference is value.

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The All-Star Game MVP and What It Signals

ANT already won All-Star Game MVP this season, confirming his standing as the must-watch player when the cameras are on.

This matters more than people think. All-Star Game MVP is a popularity and performance signal. It tells you who the league, the media, and the fans view as the next face of the NBA. Edwards winning it at 24 years old says the league is ready to hand him the keys.

The betting market is still partially priced on his younger, less efficient prior seasons. That's the gap. Books are pricing him like he's still developing. The stats say he's already developed. That disconnect is where the value sits for bettors.

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Edwards Is Already "That Guy"

At 24, Edwards is not becoming "that guy." He already is. The question isn't whether he'll get there. It's whether the betting market will catch up to reality before his odds shorten.

His combination of athleticism, improved shooting, and playoff intensity makes him one of the five most dangerous offensive players in the league when the stakes are highest. The Wolves just need to stay healthy and get him to the playoffs. Once he's there, opposing teams are in trouble.

The broader betting lesson here is simple. When you see a 24-year-old averaging 29+ PPG on elite efficiency with playoff pedigree and Olympic gold, you don't fade him. You bet on him before the market corrects. Edwards' odds for MVP, Finals MVP, and individual scoring props are still priced like he's a rising star. The reality is he's already risen.

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