MLB Cy Young Award Predictions 2026

AL Cy Young: Can Skubal Three-Peat?

Tarik Skubal is attempting to win the AL Cy Young three consecutive years, which has only been done a handful of times in baseball history. He opens at +300 on BetMGM, +240 on FanDuel, and +350 on DraftKings, implying around a 25% win probability.

The case for Skubal is straightforward:

• Elite stuff, elite command, elite efficiency
• Strong team defense behind him
• Voter familiarity from back-to-back wins that creates narrative momentum
• No major health red flags heading into the season

At +300, he's not chalk — you're getting real return on the most likely winner, which is a good starting point for any futures bet. The question is whether the historical difficulty of a three-peat creates enough uncertainty to look elsewhere.

Read more: MLB Predictions Explained: Pitching Matchups and Trends

Who Are the AL Cy Young Challengers?

• Garrett Crochet, +400 to +425: CBS Sports specifically identifies him as a best-bet type. Improved stuff, a full workload projection for the first time, and genuine swing-and-miss ability that produces the kind of strikeout totals voters notice. If he pitches 170-plus innings at his current stuff level, he's in the conversation regardless of what Skubal does. +400 on the primary challenger with this kind of endorsement is a strong value play.
• Jacob deGrom, +1300: The CBS expert's specific AL best bet. Logic: deGrom surprised with 170-plus innings in 2025, his expected ERA was around 3.30, and his slider and changeup returned to near-elite whiff rates. One more healthy step forward puts him squarely in contention. Getting 13/1 on a former back-to-back Cy Young winner who's trending in the right direction is one of the more defensible long shots in any award market.
• Hunter Brown, +900 to +1500: Mid-tier priced pitcher with a realistic path if volume and efficiency hold throughout the season. Worth a small position at the right price.
• Cole Ragans, +1100 to +1500: Similar profile to Brown. Elite stuff with the workload questions that keep him in the mid-tier rather than the top of the board.
• Framber Valdez, +1000 to +2200: The wide price range across books tells you there's market inefficiency here. If you can find him at the longer end of that range, the value is real.
• Bryan Woo, +1600 to +1700: Mariners pitcher with strong underlying numbers and a team context that could push him toward a 180-plus inning season if everything goes right.

Practical AL bet: Skubal at +300 is the most likely winner but less appealing than Crochet at +400 given the historical difficulty of a three-peat and the workload questions that come with it. Back Crochet as your primary value play and add a small deGrom position at +1300 as a high-upside lottery ticket.

NL Cy Young: Paul Skenes Defending His Title

Skenes opens at +225 on BetMGM and +200 on DraftKings to defend his 2025 NL Cy Young title, implying around a 30 to 31% win probability. He enters 2026 with full innings expectations for the first time as a true frontline ace rather than a carefully managed prospect.

The case is simple: elite raw stuff, full workload ahead, and a roster behind him that scores runs and plays defense. If he pitches 180-plus innings at the level he showed in 2025, he wins this award.

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Who Are the NL Cy Young Challengers?

• Yoshinobu Yamamoto, +500 to +550: The most credible NL alternative. A full-season workhorse for the Dodgers means massive run support, strong defense behind him, and a team context that amplifies his individual numbers in every direction. His 2025 was interrupted but the talent is undeniable. A clean 2026 makes him a very real threat to flip the vote.
• Chris Sale, +1400 to +1600: Worth considering if you believe the Braves' offense and defense keep his numbers clean in an age-defying follow-up to his 2024 Cy Young. Voters have shown they'll reward veteran pitchers with great stories, and Sale's comeback narrative is one of the best in recent memory. +1400 is a legitimate lottery ticket rather than pure speculation.
• Hunter Greene, +1200 to +1500: Power arm with elite strikeout potential. The Reds ballpark can be volatile, but his stuff is good enough to dominate even in a hitter-friendly environment on most nights. Worth a small position at the right price.

Practical NL bet: Skenes is the chalk and the safest single pick. Yamamoto at +500 is the most credible value play. Sale at +1400 is the fun long shot for anyone who loves a veteran pitching comeback story.

How to Build Your Cy Young Portfolio

The same principle that applies to MVP betting applies here — don't commit everything to one pitcher.

AL portfolio: Crochet at +400 as your primary value play, deGrom at +1300 as the high-upside lottery, and a small Skubal position at +300 if you want the most likely winner covered.

NL portfolio: Skenes as your anchor, Yamamoto at +500 as the value play, and a small Sale or Greene position as the long-shot coverage.

The Cy Young markets move faster than any other award market because pitcher health news in March and April immediately shifts prices. Getting your positions in before spring training ends is the most important timing decision in these markets.

Read more: How Sportsbooks Set MLB Opening Lines

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