MLB Rookie of the Year Predictions 2026

NL ROY: Is Konnor Griffin the Pick?

Pirates shortstop Konnor Griffin is the NL ROY frontrunner at +200 to +285 across all books. He's 19 years old, was named Minor League Player of the Year in 2025, and projects as the starting shortstop for Pittsburgh with 500-plus plate appearances expected.

The case for Griffin is talent-driven rather than narrative-driven:

• Best pure prospect in the NL by most evaluations
• Guaranteed starting role with full at-bat exposure
• Young enough that his development curve projects significant in-season improvement
• Pittsburgh giving him every opportunity to accumulate the counting stats voters respond to

At +200 to +285, you're paying a meaningful price for someone who hasn't played an MLB game yet, which is the primary risk. Rookie of the Year requires sustained MLB production, not just minor league dominance. That gap between prospect talent and major league performance is real and creates uncertainty that the price should reflect.

Read more: MLB Player Props Explained

Who Are the NL ROY Challengers?

• JJ Wetherholt, Cardinals, +425 to +500: Projected as the starting second baseman and a middle-of-the-order contributor for St. Louis. Full-time role with a team that needs his production gives him the counting stats path that ROY voters reward. +425 on a player with a guaranteed starting role is the most defensible value play in the NL market.
• Nolan McLean, Mets, +450 to +500: Starting pitcher projected as the Mets' number two starter — a massive role on a team with genuine playoff aspirations. His path is more volatile because starting pitchers accumulate stats more slowly than position players, but the team context is excellent and voters notice when a rookie pitcher helps a contender win big games.
• Sal Stewart, Reds, +800 to +1100: Bigger-name prospect getting regular at-bats in Cincinnati. His price reflects some uncertainty about role and performance level, but the opportunity is real. Worth a small position at the longer end of his price range.
• Bubba Chandler, Pirates, +1300 to +1600: Could split ballot votes with Griffin as another Pirates piece getting regular opportunities. The Pirates giving two rookies significant roles simultaneously is unusual and creates some vote-splitting risk for both players.

Practical NL bet: Griffin at +200 to +285 is the most credible chalk given talent and role. Wetherholt and McLean are the value plays at plus money — McLean specifically is the high-upside dart if his role as a rotation anchor holds throughout the season.

AL ROY: Trey Yesavage Leading a Crowded Field

Blue Jays right-hander Trey Yesavage opens as the AL ROY favorite at +370 on Covers and DraftKings, +450 on BetMGM. At 22 years old, he climbed rapidly through the Blue Jays system in 2025 and is described as coming off a remarkable playoff run as a key contributor. His implied probability at the shortest price is around 21%.

What makes the AL market genuinely interesting is how clustered the field is behind him. Five or six players are priced within +150 of each other, which means the actual race is far more open than any single frontrunner suggests.

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Who Are the AL ROY Challengers?

• Kevin McGonigle, Tigers, +500 to +600: Detroit's young core is producing real results and McGonigle has a guaranteed role on a team projected for 85-plus wins. Winning team context is a major ROY factor and Detroit provides it.
• Kazuma Okamoto, Blue Jays, +500 to +600: On the same team as Yesavage, which creates vote-splitting risk for both players. But he's a legitimate run producer with a full-time role and the Blue Jays' lineup gives him RBI opportunities that inflate counting stats for voters.
• Carter Jensen, Royals, +600: Kansas City's young core creates a real opportunity for Jensen to accumulate stats in a lineup that gives him regular at-bats. The Royals' improving trajectory helps his case with voters who pay attention to winning.
• Munetaka Murakami, White Sox, +600 to +800: The high-profile Japanese star making his MLB debut. If he posts a 30-homer season, he'll have enormous ticket action and voter enthusiasm regardless of his raw WAR. Voters historically gravitate toward popular narratives and big power numbers from international stars. His price is potentially too long given the voter enthusiasm factor.
• Tatsuya Imai, Astros, +850 to +1200: Solid role on a winning team with the Houston context amplifying his individual contributions. Worth a small position at the longer end of his price range.
• Samuel Basallo, Orioles, +1000 to +1100: Baltimore's young core and playoff aspirations give him a winning team context that voters respond to. Longer price but real opportunity.

How to Bet the ROY Markets

Both races have one thing in common: the frontrunners are worth backing but the fields behind them are genuinely open enough to justify coverage on multiple alternatives.

NL approach: Griffin as your primary position, Wetherholt or McLean as value coverage, one small lottery position on Stewart or Chandler at longer prices.

AL approach: Yesavage as your primary position, Murakami as the high-upside narrative play at +600 to +800, one small position on Okamoto or McGonigle as team-context coverage.

The most important timing note for both markets: ROY prices move faster than any other award market once the season starts because results are immediate and visible. A hot April from a non-frontrunner can shift prices dramatically within weeks. Getting your positions in before opening day is the single most important tactical decision in these markets.

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Read more: Reading MLB Betting Boards Like a Pro