NBA Most Improved Player Prediction 2026

Who Is the Current MIP Favorite?

Jalen Duren sits at -155 on BetMGM and -140 on ESPN's futures board, making him the consensus chalk heading into the final stretch of the season. The case for him is clean: massive jump in usage, efficiency, and overall team impact for a Detroit Pistons team projected near 58 wins and positioned as one of the elite teams in the East. That combination of individual statistical leap on a winning team is exactly what MIP voters reward, and Duren checks both boxes more clearly than anyone else in the field right now.

What makes his current position more impressive is where he started. Duren opened the season at +8000, a huge long shot behind names like Amen Thompson at +800, Matas Buzelis at +1400, Deni Avdija at +1600, and Josh Giddey at +2000. Jalen Johnson was at +5000. The market barely noticed Duren as a preseason candidate. His move from +8000 to -155 is one of the most dramatic award-market shifts of the season across any sport, and it happened because of real, sustained production rather than a hot week.

How Volatile Has This Market Been?

Six different players have held the MIP favorite position at various points this season: Jalen Johnson, Deni Avdija, Amen Thompson, Matas Buzelis, Josh Giddey, and now Duren. That rotation of favorites is not unusual for this award historically. MIP is the one individual award where the preseason favorite almost never wins, because "most improved" by definition requires seeing the improvement happen in real time rather than projecting it from a draft position or previous reputation.

This volatility is why MIP is genuinely fun to bet early in the season when the market is still pricing candidates based on projections rather than demonstrated production. By mid-March, the field has narrowed to the point where most of the value has been claimed by bettors who got in when the current frontrunner was still a long shot. Duren at +8000 was the bet to make. Duren at -155 is a bet to evaluate carefully.

Read more: NBA Betting Predictions Strategy

Who Are the Other Realistic Candidates?

Two players remain in genuine contention behind Duren, though neither has closed the gap enough to flip the race at this stage.

Jalen Johnson sits at +300 on BetMGM and +330 on ESPN. His production has been real and his role has expanded significantly, but the Atlanta Hawks' overall trajectory and team success haven't matched the narrative that MIP voters typically want alongside individual improvement. The award almost always goes to a player on a winning team, and Johnson's situation doesn't fully clear that bar right now.

Deni Avdija is priced at +400 on BetMGM and +350 on ESPN. His improvement is genuine and his advanced metrics show real development, but he falls into the same category as Johnson — right idea, genuinely improved, wrong season to flip the vote away from a player on a 58-win team. Avdija's case is more interesting for next season than for this one.

Everyone else in the field is sitting at +1600 or longer:

• Nickeil Alexander-Walker at +1600
• Ryan Rollins at +2500
• Everyone else at fringe prices

None of these players have a realistic path to winning unless Duren's production collapses in the final weeks of the season and a replacement narrative forms around someone else. At this stage, that's a very low probability outcome.

Is There Any Value Left in This Market?

The honest answer is: not much, and only in very specific situations.

Duren at -155 is technically the correct bet in terms of who is most likely to win. But -155 on an individual award is never the most efficient use of betting capital. You're paying for a probability that's real but not overwhelming — the implied probability at -155 is about 61%, which means four out of ten times this bet loses. That's meaningful variance for a chalk price.

The most defensible position at current market prices is a small Duren bet as part of a larger futures ticket, combined with a speculative position on either Johnson or Avdija as a hedge. Here's the specific logic:

• Duren as the primary position covers the most likely outcome
• Johnson at +300 as a hedge covers the scenario where Duren cools off and Atlanta's team narrative improves
• Avdija at +400 covers the scenario where advanced metrics and defensive improvement get more attention from voters than raw box-score numbers

A split position across all three at appropriate sizes gives you coverage of the three realistic outcomes without overexposing yourself to any single award result.

What Does the MIP Market Teach You About Future Award Betting?

The broader lesson here is worth more than any single bet in this specific market.

MIP is the award with the highest long-shot win rate in basketball. Looking back over recent history, the player who wins this award was almost never the preseason favorite. They were typically sitting at +1000 or longer in October, with their candidacy based on a genuine statistical leap that the market hadn't fully priced because the leap hadn't happened yet.

The optimal strategy for MIP every season is identifying two or three players in the +1000 to +5000 range in October and November who are in positions where expanded roles and team success are likely to happen simultaneously. Duren was exactly that player this year. The question for next season is finding the equivalent before the market closes.

Want more data-driven sports insights? Head over to the Shurzy Content Lab for rankings, predictions, and advanced analysis from our research team.

The Bottom Line on MIP Betting Right Now

Duren is the right pick. The price has most of its value already extracted. Johnson and Avdija are the only hedges worth considering. Everything else in this market is too long to justify a serious position.

If you have early Duren exposure from his long-shot price, hold it. If you're coming in now, keep the position size small relative to the odds and treat it as a portfolio piece rather than a primary investment.

Before placing your next wager, take a look at the Live Odds on Shurzy. Compare current lines, futures markets, and betting trends across the NHL, NBA, MLB, UFC and more.

Read more: Live NBA Odds: How They Move in Real Time