Sports Betting

NHL Hart Trophy Prediction 2026

The Hart Trophy race has a clear frontrunner, and the market has already moved to reflect it. MVP voting in the NHL has always leaned toward the best player on the best team. When those two things align — dominant individual performance plus team success — the winner is usually obvious by March. This year, that description fits one player almost perfectly. Here's the full Hart Trophy breakdown with betting value at every tier.

March 26, 2026

Who Is the Current Hart Trophy Favorite?

The market has swung decisively, and it's hard to argue with where it's landed.

Nathan MacKinnon is the clear favorite, sitting at odds-on or short chalk at most books. He carries the highest ticket and handle share at multiple sportsbooks, meaning both casual and sharp money has moved toward him. The case is straightforward: elite counting stats, team with the best goal differential in the league, and the narrative of "best player on the best team" is exactly what Hart voters respond to. MacKinnon has won this award before, voters know what they're getting, and there's no strong challenger with a cleaner case right now.

If you backed MacKinnon earlier in the season at longer odds, you're sitting well. At current chalk pricing the value is mostly gone, but there's no strong reason to fade him either.

Who Are the Main Hart Trophy Challengers?

These players are realistically in the conversation if MacKinnon's numbers slip or Colorado hits a prolonged rough stretch.

Connor McDavid: The default challenger in any MVP race. His counting stats are always elite, and if the Oilers make a strong push in the standings, his case gets stronger. Currently priced behind MacKinnon but not by a massive margin.
Nikita Kucherov: Tampa's offensive engine and a player voters have already rewarded with a Hart. If his point totals keep climbing and Tampa stays near the top of the East, he'll get real consideration.
Leon Draisaitl: Often overlooked because he plays alongside McDavid, but his individual production is Hart-caliber most seasons. A long shot at current prices but not an irrational one.
Kirill Kaprizov: Minnesota's star continues to put up big numbers on a competitive team. If Wild success continues and his totals climb, he's a legitimate late-season mover in this market.
Auston Matthews: Hasn't been the dominant offensive force of his 60-goal season, but elite goal-scoring always gets Hart attention if the pace picks up late.

Want more data-driven sports insights? Head over to the Shurzy Content Lab for rankings, predictions, and advanced analysis from our research team.

Which Hart Trophy Long Shots Have a Case?

These players are priced well back from the leaders but aren't completely without merit if the race tightens.

Connor Hellebuyck: Goalies win the Hart occasionally, and Hellebuyck is the best goalie in the league. If Winnipeg's success continues and his numbers stay elite, he's the most credible long-shot case in the field.
Cale Makar: The best defenseman in the league on the best team. Defensemen rarely win the Hart, but his combination of offensive production and defensive impact makes him the most interesting non-forward on the board.
Brayden Point: Quietly putting up big numbers for Tampa. If his production stays elite and Tampa keeps winning, he could sneak into the conversation as a value play at longer odds.
Brad Marchand / David Pastrnak: Both are capable of the kind of hot second-half stretch that moves Hart markets. Long shots, but not impossible ones if the counting stats pile up.

How to Bet the Hart Trophy Market Right Now

The Hart is one of the trickier individual award markets because voter sentiment can shift late in the season based on narrative as much as numbers.

MacKinnon at chalk is defensible but not exciting: If you need to be on the Hart, MacKinnon is the right pick. Just know you're paying for high probability with limited return.
McDavid as a hedge makes sense: If Edmonton goes on a dominant run and MacKinnon cools off at all, McDavid is the most likely beneficiary of any market shift. A small position on McDavid alongside MacKinnon covers the most realistic outcome change.
Kaprizov is the best long-shot value: His numbers are real, his team is competitive, and his price is long enough to make a small position worthwhile. If the Minnesota story gets bigger as the season closes, his odds will move.
Avoid the rest unless the price is extreme: Draisaitl, Kucherov, and the longer shots need too many things to go right simultaneously to justify more than a token bet at current prices.

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