Spread Predictions: Handicapping the Margin

What spread predictions forecast: Which team will cover the point spread, the margin by which one team must win (or lose by less) for the bet to cash.

How they're built:

• Models calculate each team's strength via power ratings (offensive/defensive efficiency, adjusted for opponent quality)
• Predict the expected margin of victory: e.g., Team A is 7 points better than Team B
• Add home-field advantage (typically 2-3 points in NFL, 3-4 in NBA, varies by venue)
• Compare the model's "fair spread" to the market spread

Example spread prediction:

• Eagles vs. Cowboys, market line: Eagles -3.5
• Model projects: Eagles -6 (fair line)
• Prediction: "Bet Eagles -3.5" because you're getting 2.5 points of value

Key factors in spread predictions:

• Matchup edges: Offense vs. defense strengths and weaknesses
• Injuries: Missing key players significantly affect point spreads
• Motivation and context: Revenge games, division rivals, playoff implications
• Home/away splits: Some teams dominate at home but struggle on the road

Reading spread predictions: Check if the reasoning explains why the team will not just win, but cover by a specific margin. A prediction that says "Team A wins" doesn't help if they're -10 favorites. You need to know if they win by 11+.

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Total Predictions: Forecasting Combined Scoring

What total predictions forecast: Whether the combined score of both teams will go over or under a posted number.

How they're built:

• Project each team's expected points separately based on offensive efficiency, pace, and opponent defensive strength
• Sum the projections for a predicted total (e.g., Team A 110, Team B 105 = 215 total)
• Compare to the market total

Example total prediction:

• Nuggets vs. Magic, market total: 218.5
• Model projects: 223 points
• Prediction: "Bet Over 218.5" because there's 4.5 points of value

Key factors in total predictions:

• Pace: Possessions per game. Faster pace equals more scoring opportunities
• Offensive/defensive efficiency: Points per possession for each team
• Weather (outdoor sports): Wind, rain, cold suppress NFL totals
• Injuries: Missing star offensive players lower totals. Missing defensive anchors raise them
• Game script expectations: Blowouts can suppress totals if starters sit. Close games maximize possessions

Reading total predictions: Look for reasoning around why scoring will be higher or lower than expected, not just "both offenses are good." Predictions should cite pace, efficiency mismatches, or situational factors.

Read More: Predictions for Spreads, Totals, and Props Explained

Prop Predictions: Isolated Player/Team Outcomes

What prop predictions forecast: Specific player performances (points, yards, touchdowns) or team milestones independent of game result.

Types of prop predictions:

• Player props: "LeBron James Over 28.5 points," "Patrick Mahomes Over 275.5 passing yards"
• Team props: "Lakers team total Over 112.5 points"
• Game props: "Will there be a safety? Yes/No," "First team to score"

How player prop predictions are built:

• Project player usage: minutes, targets, carries, shot attempts
• Apply efficiency metrics: points per shot, yards per carry, completion percentage
• Adjust for opponent strength and matchup (e.g., WR facing weak CB)
• Compare projection to posted prop line

Example prop prediction:

• Tyreek Hill receiving yards, market line: 85.5
• Model projects: 92 yards based on target share, opponent pass defense ranking, and game script (likely trailing = more passing)
• Prediction: "Bet Over 85.5" at -110 or better

Key factors in prop predictions:

• Usage trends: Recent target/carry share, role changes due to injuries
• Matchup: Player's stat line vs. specific opponents or defensive archetypes
• Game script: Will the team be ahead (run more) or behind (pass more)?
• Props are less efficient: Books can't price every prop perfectly, creating more exploitable edges than main markets

Reading prop predictions: Verify the predictor is tracking usage data and matchups, not just season averages. A prop prediction that says "Player X averages 80 yards so bet the over at 75" ignores critical context like whether his target share just dropped or he's facing an elite defender.

Looking for smarter picks without the guesswork? Check out Shurzy's Predictions tool for data-driven insights across NFL, NBA, NHL, MLB, and more.

Using Predictions Across All Three Markets

Smart bettors don't limit themselves to one market. A single game might offer:

• No spread value: Line is efficient, no edge
• Total value: Model projects higher scoring than market
• Prop value: Specific player matchup the market underpriced

Predictions help you scan for edges across all markets rather than forcing bets where none exist. The best prediction services provide forecasts for spreads, totals, AND props, letting you cherry-pick the strongest opportunities.

The Bottom Line

Understanding how predictions work for spreads, totals, and props helps you evaluate picks intelligently and identify which market offers the best value for each game.

Don't force spreads just because that's what you're comfortable with. The edge might be on the total or a player prop. Let predictions guide you to where the value actually is, not where you want it to be.

FAQ

Which market has the most value: spreads, totals, or props?

It varies by game. Generally, props are softest because books can't price everything perfectly. But the best value is wherever your edge is strongest.

Should I bet multiple markets on the same game?

Only if each bet has independent value. Don't bet Lakers -5, Over 220, and LeBron Over 28.5 just because you like the Lakers. Correlation kills you if you're wrong.

Are total predictions easier than spreads?

Not easier, just different. Totals require understanding pace and efficiency. Spreads require understanding margin of victory. Both need skill.

Do prop predictions work better for beginners?

No. Props have higher variance and require deeper player-level knowledge. Beginners should start with spreads or totals.

How do I know which market to prioritize?

Follow predictions across all three. Bet whichever shows the largest edge. Don't have loyalty to one market type.