Rookie of the Year Dark Horses Nobody's Talking About

The Cooper Flagg Stranglehold Is Real

The ROY market this season is effectively a single-player market at the top. Flagg has dominated from day one and never let up.

Understanding the dark horses requires understanding exactly what scenario dethrones Flagg. A significant injury that keeps him below the games-played threshold, a catastrophic second-half collapse in efficiency, or another rookie posting an unprecedented statistical explosion. None of those are particularly likely, but each is non-zero.

The only realistic path for a dark horse:

• Flagg gets injured and misses 20+ games
• Another rookie goes nuclear in the second half (averaging 25+ PPG on elite efficiency)
• Voter fatigue sets in (unlikely given how dominant Flagg has been)

If none of those happen, Flagg wins ROY by a landslide. But that doesn't mean there's no value in the dark horse market. If you're building a lottery ticket portfolio, here's where to look.

Before tip-off, jump into Gridzy and test your NBA IQ.

Kon Knueppel Is the Only Real Challenger

Kon Knueppel (Charlotte Hornets) is the lone player with legitimate ROY odds, sitting at +400 at BetMGM and +650 elsewhere.

His preseason line was +2,000, meaning anyone who took a position on Knueppel before the year started has already seen enormous implied gains even before cashing. The transformation in his candidacy is the biggest odds movement story of the rookie class.

The numbers explain the surge:

• Knueppel leads all rookies in scoring with 19+ points through 41 games
• Adding 4.3 rebounds and 3.6 assists per game
• Playing 32+ minutes per game with elite usage rate

At 6-foot-6 with legitimate shot-creation ability and a feel for the game that recalls veterans three years his senior, he's been the Hornets' most consistent offensive option. That's remarkable given he was the 4th overall pick on a team that has struggled to develop talent consistently.

The +400 line offers almost no value at this point given Flagg's dominance, but it correctly prices Knueppel as the only candidate with a realistic (if remote) path to the award.

Want smarter picks without diving into spreadsheets? Hit the Content Lab for NBA betting angles, trends, and quick reads built for real fans.

VJ Edgecombe Has the Most Interesting Upside

VJ Edgecombe (Philadelphia 76ers, +8,000) is the dark horse with the most interesting underlying story.

His preseason line was +1,000, meaning the market has actually moved significantly against him, driven primarily by injuries that cost him multiple games in the first half. When healthy and active, Edgecombe showed flashes of top-5-rookie production.

His athleticism, defensive intensity, and transition scoring are legitimately elite-grade, not just "promising for a rookie":

• Injury setbacks are the sole reason his odds drifted from four figures to five
• If he returns healthy for the second half and posts 20+ points in consecutive games, watch for a line correction back toward +3,000
• The Sixers need scoring desperately, which could force them to give Edgecombe more minutes

The betting play here is speculative, but at +8,000, you're getting massive upside if he stays healthy and the Sixers lean on him down the stretch.

If NBA's off tonight, Piggy Arcade keeps the action rolling.

Derik Queen and the Sportsbook Arbitrage Opportunity

Derik Queen (New Orleans Pelicans, +5,000 to +50,000) represents the widest disparity between sportsbooks of any ROY candidate.

On BetMGM he sits at +50,000, while other books have him as low as +5,000. That's a massive spread that itself signals market uncertainty. Queen is averaging solid numbers for a Pelicans team in full rebuilding mode, and his flashes of interior dominance and playmaking instinct from the center position have drawn legitimate comparisons to early-career Domantas Sabonis.

The variance in his line means there's a genuine arbitrage opportunity:

• Find him at the lower end of that spread (+5,000)
• BetMGM and other shops haven't corrected yet (+50,000)
• If he has a monster second half, the line will compress dramatically

This is pure lottery ticket territory, but the fact that books disagree this much on his value tells you the market hasn't figured him out yet.

If you're calling upsets in this article, go run it back in Gridzy.

Cedric Coward Is the True Lottery Play

Cedric Coward (Memphis Grizzlies, +10,000 to +50,000) is the true lottery-play dark horse.

He's barely played enough minutes to appear in the conversation, but his per-36 production numbers are elite among rookies. The problem is raw games played, not talent ceiling.

If the Grizzlies' season fully collapses (they're 20-33 and tanking) and Coward absorbs rotation minutes in a developmental role through March-April, his statistical accumulation could force him into the periphery of the conversation at a massive implied payout:

• The Grizzlies have no reason to play veterans over rookies at this point
• Coward could see 25-30 minutes per game down the stretch
• If he averages 15+ PPG over the final 25 games, he enters the dark horse conversation

This is the definition of a longshot, but at +50,000, you're getting 500-to-1 odds on a player with legitimate talent who just needs opportunity.

No games on the slate? Switch lanes and check Piggy Arcade's top picks.

The Structural Betting Truth About ROY

The ROY market's most consistent inefficiency is that second-place finishers are radically overpriced throughout the season.

Voters essentially choose a winner and a runner-up, and the runner-up rarely affects how books price the #2 candidate. The value play is identifying whoever will finish second before the season ends and betting them as a future at long odds.

Knueppel at +2,000 preseason is the textbook example of how to execute this:

• He was clearly the #2 option in the class
• The market underpriced him because Flagg was so dominant
• Anyone who bet him at +2,000 has already won even if he doesn't take the award

Looking ahead to 2026-27, this season's late-emerging rookies (Queen, Coward, Edgecombe) will open at compressed odds based on partial-year exposure, making them prime preseason targets for the same play.

If you're betting this series, don't guess. The Content Lab has the matchup breakdowns ready.