UFC

The Complete Guide to UFC Stats & Analytics

Professional UFC betting isn't gambling. It's structured analysis. Casual bettors watch highlights and bet on feelings. Professional bettors pull statistics, calculate differentials, and compare their estimates to market odds. The difference is process. When your analysis shows 65% win probability but the market implies 58%, you bet. When the market already prices the edge, you pass. Simple. This guide breaks down which stats actually predict outcomes, which are noise, and how to systematically apply data to find edges the market misses.

February 19, 2026

The Complete Guide to UFC Stats & Analytics

The difference is process. When your analysis shows 65% win probability but the market implies 58%, you bet. When the market already prices the edge, you pass. Simple.

This guide breaks down which stats actually predict outcomes, which are noise, and how to systematically apply data to find edges the market misses.

Understanding the UFC Stats Ecosystem

UFC statistics are maintained by FightMetric (now owned by the UFC) and tracked through UFCStats.com, the official statistical repository that records every significant action inside the Octagon. The data model breaks down each round into dozens of variables covering striking, grappling, control, and positional metrics.

But not all statistics are created equal for betting purposes. Some metrics have strong predictive power. Others are noise that look impressive but don't actually correlate with winning fights. Professional bettors focus on the high-signal statistics and ignore the rest.

Shurzy Tip: Before you analyze any fight, bookmark UFCStats.com and learn to navigate it quickly. Being able to pull core statistics in 2-3 minutes per fighter is the foundation of statistical handicapping.

Core Striking Metrics

Significant Strikes Landed per Minute (SLpM)

This measures offensive output and pressure. Significant strikes count all strikes at distance plus power strikes in the clinch and on the ground. It excludes only weak, pawing jabs and soft clinch taps that don't meaningfully advance winning the fight.

What the numbers mean:

5+ SLpM: high-volume attacker (Max Holloway, Valentina Shevchenko)
3-4 SLpM: average output for the division
Below 2.5: low-volume counter-puncher or grappler

Volume matters more than you think. A fighter landing 5.2 significant strikes per minute over 15 minutes lands roughly 78 strikes. A fighter landing 3.1 per minute lands 46 strikes. That 32-strike differential wins rounds on judges' scorecards even without knockdowns.

Striking Accuracy

Shows what percentage of attempted strikes actually land. The UFC average hovers around 40%, with heavyweights typically posting slightly higher accuracy due to slower pace and bigger targets.

While accuracy matters, it's far less predictive than volume and differential. A fighter landing 45% of 200 strikes per fight does more damage than one landing 60% of 80 strikes. Don't be fooled by impressive accuracy percentages attached to low volume.

Significant Strikes Absorbed per Minute (SApM)

This reveals defensive responsibility and durability risk. It's one of the most important statistics that casual bettors completely ignore.

What the numbers indicate:

4+ SApM: taking sustained damage, vulnerable to finishes
2.5-4.0 SApM: average defensive responsibility
Under 2.5 SApM: elite defense or controls fight at range/ground

High SApM correlates strongly with knockout losses and late-career decline. When you see a fighter over 33 years old with 4.5+ SApM and multiple knockout losses, you're looking at a chin that's already cracked. The market often prices these fighters on name value instead of current durability.

Striking Differential (SLpM minus SApM)

This is among the most predictive single statistics in MMA analytics. A positive differential means a fighter lands more than they absorb. Negative means they're being outlanded consistently.

Performance benchmarks:

+2.0 or better: rarely lose decisions, dominate minute-winning
0 to +2.0: competitive, wins depend on other factors
Negative: need finishes or grappling control to win rounds

Fighters with strong striking differentials win the majority of their fights because they're winning the minute-by-minute battle that judges score. This stat captures both offensive output and defensive responsibility in one clean number.

Shurzy Tip: Striking differential is more predictive than knockout power, reach advantage, or striking accuracy. Calculate it for both fighters before you bet on any striking-heavy matchup.

Grappling and Control Metrics

Takedowns Landed per 15 Minutes (TD Avg)

This quantifies wrestling volume and offensive grappling. It's the first number you check when analyzing wrestler versus striker matchups.

Volume benchmarks:

3.5+ per 15 minutes: elite wrestler (Khabib, Islam, Merab)
2.0-3.5 per 15 minutes: solid wrestling threat
Under 1.0: primarily striker or submission grappler

High takedown volume creates constant defensive pressure that wears opponents down even when attempts get stuffed. A wrestler shooting 5-6 times per fight forces the striker to defend wrestling instead of setting up striking offense.

Takedown Accuracy (TD Acc)

Shows what percentage of attempted takedowns succeed. This separates good wrestlers from great wrestlers.

Accuracy tiers:

55%+ accuracy: elite (high-percentage wrestler)
45-54% accuracy: solid wrestling fundamentals
Below 35%: struggles to finish shots, telegraphed attempts

Context matters here. High accuracy with moderate volume (2-3 attempts per 15 minutes at 50%+ success) often indicates a patient, high-percentage wrestler. Low accuracy with high volume might indicate a chain wrestler who eventually breaks through with persistence.

Takedown Defense (TD Def)

This reveals how effectively a fighter stuffs opponents' shots. It's arguably the single most important stat for striker versus grappler matchups.

Defense thresholds:

80%+ TD defense: can reliably keep fights standing against wrestlers
70-79% TD defense: solid but will get taken down 1-2 times per fight
Below 60% TD defense: vulnerable to grapple-heavy game plans

Strikers need 70%+ takedown defense to reliably keep fights standing against competent wrestlers. Below 60% makes them sitting ducks. When you see a striker with 55% takedown defense facing a wrestler with 3.5+ takedowns per 15 minutes, the striker's path to victory collapses.

Control Time

Measures cumulative minutes spent in dominant positions: mount, back control, side control on the ground, or holding an opponent against the cage in the clinch. The UFC's stat combines both clinch control and ground control into one number.

What control time reveals:

8-12 minutes per 3-round fight: grinding, position-heavy wrestler
4-7 minutes: solid control wrestling or hybrid style
Under 3 minutes: striker or scramble-heavy grappler

High control time per takedown (120+ seconds) signals a grinding, position-heavy style that wins rounds without finishing. Low control time per takedown suggests explosive scrambles or quick submission finishes. When projecting decisions versus finishes, control time patterns matter.

Shurzy Tip: Always calculate control time per takedown, not just total control time. A fighter with 5 takedowns and 2 minutes control isn't dominating. They're getting takedowns but can't hold position.

Advanced Analytics and Composite Scores

Raw counting stats tell part of the story, but advanced analytics provide deeper insight by contextualizing performance relative to weight class, opponent quality, and expectations.

Grappling Composite Score

Data-driven fight prediction models aggregate takedown volume, accuracy, defense, and submission attempts into a single grappling composite score. This allows apples-to-apples comparison across weight classes and styles, identifying fighters whose grappling game is systematically undervalued by betting markets.

You can build your own simplified version:

Takedowns per 15 minutes Ã— 15 points
Takedown accuracy Ã— 80 points
Takedown defense Ã— 100 points
Submission attempts Ã— 10 points

Combine these into a 0-100 scale composite. Fighters with 20+ point advantages in grappling composite rarely lose to strikers unless the striker has elite takedown defense to neutralize it.

Striking Efficiency vs Expected

One of the most sophisticated statistical approaches calculates expected significant strikes based on division-average accuracy multiplied by a fighter's attempts, then compares actual strikes landed.

Fighters who consistently exceed expected strikes (landing 10-15% more than average given their shot volume) demonstrate elite efficiency independent of raw output. Anderson Silva, Israel Adesanya, and Max Holloway historically dominate this metric, consistently outperforming positional and target-adjusted expectations.

Machine Learning Prediction Models

Academic and professional handicappers have built machine learning models (Random Forest, Gradient Boosting, BiLSTM neural networks) that achieve 60-75% predictive accuracy on unseen UFC fights. The most successful models treat fighting as a multi-factor problem:

Factor 1: Stand-up striking efficiency and differential Factor 2: Wrestling and jiu-jitsu metrics Factor 3: Physical attributes (age, reach, weight class) Factor 4: Recent form and cardio patterns

The best-performing Bayesian regression and BiLSTM models reached 70-75% accuracy, comparable to or better than aggregate sportsbook lines. The models consistently identify striking differential, takedown defense, control time, and age as the highest-weight variables.

How to Use Stats for Betting: Step-by-Step Framework

Knowing the stats is one thing. Applying them systematically to find betting edges is another. Here's the workflow sharp bettors use.

Step 1: Pull and Compare Core Stats

Start by gathering both fighters' stats from UFCStats.com, Tapology, or aggregated analytics platforms.

Focus on:

SLpM, SApM, Striking Differential, Striking Accuracy, Striking Defense
TD Avg, TD Acc, TD Def, Submission Attempts
Recent form: last 3-5 fights, finishes, decision patterns

Compare head-to-head advantages across each metric. If Fighter A has +1.5 SLpM, +8% accuracy, and +15% TD defense over Fighter B, Fighter A has clear statistical edges in both phases.

Step 2: Identify Stylistic Mismatches

Stats gain meaning when filtered through style. Ask these questions:

Striker vs Striker: Who has better striking differential, defensive metrics, and cardio for late rounds?

Striker vs Grappler: Does the striker have 70%+ TD defense? Does the grappler have 45%+ TD accuracy and control time to win rounds on the mat?

Grappler vs Grappler: Who has better TD accuracy, positional control time, and submission threat? High-level grappling matchups often produce low finish rates and decision grinds.

Stylistic edges often override raw stat advantages. A fighter with lower SLpM but 80% TD defense facing a grappler-heavy opponent might be badly mismatched despite decent striking numbers.

Step 3: Weight Recent Performance and Context

Career-average stats can mislead. Use recency filters to get accurate reads:

Last 3-5 fights reflect current form, evolution, and improvements better than 10-year career averages. A fighter's stats from 2019 are often irrelevant in 2025 due to age, injuries, or stylistic evolution.

Opponent quality matters massively. Beating ranked contenders versus crushing unranked prelim fighters produces vastly different stat inflation. Check who fighters have actually faced, not just their numbers.

Age and mileage create decline. Fighters 33+ with high SApM and knockout losses show accelerated decline. Their historical stats overstate current ability.

Layoffs and injuries add uncertainty. Multi-year breaks, surgeries, or repeated cancellations mean timing, cardio, and durability are unknowns that stats don't capture.

Step 4: Quantify Edges and Compare to Odds

Once you've mapped stat advantages and stylistic fit, translate that into a rough win probability estimate:

Clear stat edges across striking and grappling plus favorable style matchup: 65-70% win probability
Mixed stats but strong stylistic advantage: 55-60%
Even stats, coin-flip stylistic fit: 50%

Compare your probability to the implied probability from betting odds. If you estimate 65% and the line implies 58% (roughly -140), you have positive expected value and should consider betting. If the line already implies 70% (-230), you're paying a premium and should pass.

Step 5: Monitor Line Movement and Late Information

Odds shift for reasons. Sharp money, injury rumors, weigh-in struggles, or public betting bias all move lines.

Track line movement from open to fight night:

Sharp money often moves lines against public betting
Weigh-in reactions can swing odds 10-20% when fighters look drained
Late scratches or opponent changes inject chaos where stats no longer apply

Ignoring late information while relying on stale statistical models is a common leak. Always check why lines moved before you bet.

Shurzy Tip: If a line moves 30+ cents in the final 48 hours, something happened. Check weigh-ins, social media, and injury reports before firing. That movement often signals information you don't have yet.

Common Statistical Mistakes and Traps

Even with access to comprehensive stats, bettors routinely make preventable errors that destroy ROI.

Over-Relying on Single Statistics

Betting a fighter solely because they have 65% striking accuracy or 5.0 SLpM without considering defense, grappling, or opponent style is a recipe for losses. MMA is multi-dimensional. No single stat decides fights consistently.

A fighter with great striking accuracy might have terrible takedown defense. A fighter with high striking output might absorb just as much damage (poor differential). Look at the complete statistical profile, not one impressive number.

Misinterpreting Stats Without Context

A high knockout rate against weak opposition inflates finish percentages. A long reach advantage means nothing if the fighter has poor footwork and backs to the cage. Always contextualize stats with opponent quality, division depth, and tactical execution.

Check who fighters have actually beaten. A 10-2 record built on regional journeymen is not the same as a 7-3 record built fighting ranked UFC opponents. The numbers look similar but the meaning is completely different.

Ignoring Defensive Metrics

Casual bettors fixate on offensive output (SLpM, TD Avg) and overlook defensive responsibility (SApM, TD Def, Striking Defense).

Defensive stats predict:

Durability and chin reliability
Late-fight fades when damage accumulates
Upset vulnerability against precision strikers
Career longevity and decline patterns

A fighter landing 5.5 SLpM while absorbing 5.0 SApM isn't dominating. They're in wars. Against a precision striker who lands 4.2 while absorbing 2.8, the high-volume brawler often gets picked apart.

Building Your Own UFC Analytics System

For serious bettors, manually pulling stats for every fight is inefficient. Here's how to systematize your process.

Data Sources and Organization

UFCStats.com is the official source. Create a simple spreadsheet template with columns for:

SLpM, SApM, Striking Differential
Striking Accuracy, Striking Defense
TD Avg, TD Acc, TD Def
Control Time, Submission Attempts
Recent form (last 5 fights)

Fill this out for both fighters in under 10 minutes total. Having a consistent template speeds up analysis and ensures you don't skip important metrics.

Creating Custom Metrics

Once you have raw data, calculate derived metrics that provide deeper insight:

Striking Differential (SLpM minus SApM)
Control Time per Takedown
Recent form trends (improving or declining in key stats)
Grappling Composite Score

Store these in your spreadsheet. Over time you'll build a database of fighters you've already analyzed, making future matchups faster.

Backtesting Your Approach

Track every bet you place based on statistical analysis:

Date, fighters, your probability estimate
Market odds when you bet, closing odds
Actual result
Profit/loss

After 50-100 bets, patterns emerge. Are you consistently beating closing lines? Are certain statistical edges more predictive than others? Backtesting reveals where your process works and where it doesn't.

Shurzy Tip: If you're not tracking your bets with dates, odds, reasoning, and results, you're flying blind. You can't improve what you don't measure. Start a simple spreadsheet today.

Context Beyond the Numbers

While statistics form the foundation, profitable UFC betting requires layering in qualitative intelligence that raw numbers miss.

Camp Quality and Preparation

Fighters training at elite camps (American Top Team, Jackson-Wink, City Kickboxing, AKA) with deep training partner rosters and specialized coaching often outperform stat-matched opponents from smaller gyms.

Camp disruptions add risk not reflected in historical stats:

Coaching changes during fight camp
Injury replacements forcing last-minute adjustments
Public turmoil or gym closures
Short-notice fights with inadequate preparation

Mental State and Motivation

Pre-fight interviews, embedded footage, and social media can reveal motivation gaps, weight cut struggles, or personal distractions.

Fighters on career-defining winning streaks or redemption arcs often perform above statistical expectations. Those fulfilling contracts or facing repeated setbacks may underperform despite good stats.

Fight Location and Logistics

Altitude (Mexico City, Denver), international travel across multiple time zones, and cage size all affect performance:

Altitude impacts cardio dramatically for fighters not acclimated
Time zone changes disrupt sleep and recovery
The 25-foot cage used at the Apex produces 10-12% more finishes than the standard 30-foot cage

These factors don't show up in stats but impact performance significantly.

Putting It All Together: Real-World Betting Process

Here's how a sharp UFC bettor uses stats and analytics for a single fight:

Pull stats for both fighters from UFCStats.com, focusing on last 5 fights and career averages
Calculate differentials (striking, grappling) and flag statistical edges
Map the style matchup: striker/striker, striker/grappler, grappler/grappler
Layer in context: age, layoff, camp, weight cut intel, opponent quality
Estimate win probability based on combined statistical and stylistic analysis
Compare to market odds: if your estimate exceeds implied probability by 5-10%, you have an edge
Monitor line movement from Tuesday through fight day
Bet selectively: pass on marginal edges, focus on clear mismatches

Repeat this process across the card, but bet only 2-4 fights where you have the clearest statistical and stylistic advantages, not every bout.

Final Thoughts

The stats are free. UFCStats.com is public. Anyone can pull the numbers. The edge comes from actually using them while everyone else bets on feelings.

Start simple. Pull striking differential, takedown defense, and control time for both fighters. Calculate the edges. Compared to market odds. Bet when you have 5%+ advantage. Pass when you don't.

Track everything. Every bet, every result, every closing line. After 50 bets you'll see patterns. Your process gets sharper. Your edge gets clearer.

Statistics don't guarantee wins. They give you probability advantages that compound over hundreds of bets. That's the difference between gambling and investing in UFC.

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