The Ja Morant Redemption Tour: Buy Low or Stay Away?

The Inconsistency Problem Is Real

The deeper dive into his game log tells a more complicated story. Morant's production this season has been wildly inconsistent.

His peak games show the old Ja:

• 40 points against Philadelphia
• 35 against New Orleans
• 28 against Phoenix
• 24 against Orlando

These are elite point guard performances that remind you why he was a top-5 player in the league when fully dialed in. But the valley games tell a different story. 12 points vs the Lakers, 11 vs OKC, 12 vs Miami. Those sub-15-point outputs on high shot attempts reflect shooting inefficiency and decision-making lapses that didn't exist at his 2022-23 peak when he averaged 26.2 PPG with superior ball security.

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The Grizzlies Are a Disaster Right Now

The elephant in the room is that Memphis is 20-33, sitting 11th in the Western Conference. They're outside the play-in tournament as of late February 2026.

The Grizzlies were supposed to be a playoff team this year, and they're failing that bar by a significant margin. This context matters for Morant's redemption arc because his case has always been tied to team success. The 2022 Grizzlies won 56 games with him as the unambiguous engine, and that performance is what made him a franchise cornerstone.

Without a playoff run, Morant's redemption tour is incomplete:

• He can post 20+ PPG on a losing team
• But that doesn't answer if he's still the player who can carry a team through 82 games
• The Grizzlies' record suggests the current version of Ja isn't yet that player again

The supporting cast has eroded significantly. Brandon Clarke has been a shell of his former self health-wise. Desmond Bane's development hasn't fully replaced the team's lost postseason cohesion. Head coach Taylor Jenkins has a roster with legitimate holes that even peak Morant would struggle to paper over.

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The Buy-Low Argument Actually Makes Sense

The buy-low argument rests on three pillars that you can't ignore.

He's 26 years old, still squarely within the athletic prime of an elite guard. The physical tools are fully intact. His speed, body control, and finishing ability at the rim are as good as ever based on film. The suspension reset is over. This is the first full season where he's playing without the shadow of an active or impending disciplinary action.

If Memphis rebuilds around him intelligently in the 2026 offseason, Ja's career renaissance is entirely plausible:

• Adding another credible two-way wing
• Addressing the shooting deficiencies in the starting lineup
• Pairing him with a rim-running big who can finish lobs

His 8.1 APG proves the court vision and playmaking instincts are sharp. A healthy Ja on a 45-win team in 2026-27 would immediately re-enter the All-NBA conversation. That's the bet you're making if you buy low now.

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The Stay-Away Argument Is Equally Valid

The counter-argument is equally valid. The game-to-game variance in his production reflects a player who hasn't fully recaptured the relentless competitive intensity that made him special.

Ja was electric in 2022-23 because he was attacking every game with maximum effort. The defensive focus was inconsistent but the offensive engine never turned off. That version of Ja averaged 26.2 PPG on 48.1% shooting with more assists, fewer turnovers, and greater shot-creation efficiency.

The 2025-26 version is producing less and with more variance:

• On a team that is performing worse
• With shooting percentages that don't match his peak
• With decision-making that looks rushed or forced at times

The mental and behavioral components also represent a non-zero risk. He's never publicly addressed the gun incidents in depth. While the NBA's monitoring protocols provide some guardrails, the off-court risk profile for Morant is higher than most players of his caliber.

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How to Actually Bet Ja Morant Right Now

The betting angles on Morant are tricky because his team is bad and his production is inconsistent. But there are smart plays if you know where to look.

Morant assists props (over 7.5) are strong plays on nights he starts. His playmaking baseline is elite even when scoring is off. When he's on the floor, he's feeding teammates. The assist over is one of the safer Ja bets you can make.

Grizzlies lottery odds for 2026-27 are worth monitoring. If Memphis is this bad and Morant's relationship with the franchise deteriorates, a trade this summer becomes plausible. His "next team" odds would see explosive movement. Getting ahead of that with lottery odds now could pay off.

Stay away on Grizzlies team futures this year. They don't have the roster to compete in the West even if Morant returns to elite form. Betting Memphis to make the playoffs or win a series is lighting money on fire.

2027 Morant comeback prop narratives are where the real value sits. A fully rebuilt Grizzlies team with a refreshed Ja could make for an extraordinary "buy low before the market corrects" futures play in the summer. If Memphis adds talent and Ja looks like his old self in 2026-27, his MVP odds and All-NBA odds will shorten dramatically.

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The Verdict: Buy the Player, Fade the Team

The verdict is simple. Buy him as an individual, stay away from his team.

His talent is unquestioned. When Ja is locked in and healthy, he's one of the most explosive point guards in the league. The speed, the athleticism, the court vision are all still there. The playmaking numbers prove he hasn't lost his ability to run an offense.

But the Grizzlies infrastructure around him is broken enough that his individual star power won't manifest as a team outcome this season. Memphis is rebuilding whether they want to admit it or not. Ja is stuck on a bad team with no playoff hope and a roster that doesn't fit his strengths.

The smart play is betting on Ja's individual resurgence in 2026-27 when Memphis has had an offseason to rebuild around him. Getting his future MVP odds, All-NBA odds, or "next team" props now before the market corrects is where the value sits. This season? Fade the Grizzlies. But don't fade Ja Morant's career. He's 26. He's got time to fix this.

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