The Wemby MVP Timeline: How Soon Is Too Soon to Bet It?

Why Wemby's MVP Odds Are So Long Right Now

The stats say MVP. The standings say not yet. That's the whole story in one sentence.

The Spurs aren't in title contention yet, and MVP voting historically rewards winning. Wemby's putting up generational numbers, but the Spurs are stuck in the middle of the West. MVP voters don't give the award to guys on play-in teams. They give it to guys leading top-three seeds. Until the Spurs break .500 and start climbing the standings, Wemby's odds will stay long no matter how dominant his individual numbers are.

His odds did spike from +1400 preseason to +500 after opening night last season, showing the market reacts fast to his performance. The bottleneck isn't talent. It's the Spurs' record. If San Antonio goes on a 15-game win streak and climbs into the top four in the West, Wemby's odds will collapse overnight. That's the bet you're making if you take +2500 now.

Key factors keeping his odds long:

• Spurs currently not a top-four seed in the West
• MVP voters historically favor winning teams (top three seeds get the award 90% of the time)
• Narrative still centers around Shai, Jokic, and established stars
• Wemby's assist numbers (2.8 APG) lag behind traditional point-forward MVPs

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The Trajectory Says MVP Is Coming Soon

Let's talk about where Wemby is headed, because the numbers tell a pretty clear story about when he'll actually win MVP.

His trajectory so far: 21.4 PPG as a rookie, 24.3 PPG in Year 2, 24.2 PPG this year with dramatically improved efficiency. He's not just scoring more. He's doing it smarter. His field goal percentage jumped from 46.5% as a rookie to 51.0% this season. That's real development, not just volume inflation.

Defensively, he's already the best rim protector in the league. His 10.2% block percentage is literally off the charts. He's altering shots, anchoring the defense, and doing things on that end that no one his age has ever done before.

The missing piece is team success. Any season the Spurs break .500 and start competing for home-court advantage, Wemby's MVP odds will crater toward the top of the board instantly. That could happen as soon as next year if the Spurs add one more scoring option or if their young core takes a leap.

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Where the Real Value Sits: Future MVP Futures

Here's where sharp money should be looking. The 2027 and 2028 MVP futures are where the real value lives right now.

At +2500 this year, you're essentially betting the Spurs become competitive overnight. That's possible, but it's not likely. The Spurs are still building. They're not flipping a switch mid-season and jumping to a top-three seed.

But if you look at 2027 or 2028 MVP futures, you're betting on a more realistic timeline. By then, Wemby will be 23 or 24 years old, the Spurs will have had two offseasons to add talent around him, and his stats will likely be even better than they are now. If you can get him at +800 or +1000 for future seasons, that's a smarter bet than chasing +2500 this year.

Why future MVP bets on Wemby make sense:

• Spurs will have more time to build a competitive roster
• Wemby's efficiency and all-around game will continue improving
• MVP narrative will shift toward him as he enters his prime
• Odds will be longer now than they will be in two years when the Spurs are winning 50+ games

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What Would Have to Happen for Wemby to Win MVP This Year

Let's model the scenario where Wemby actually wins MVP in 2025-26. It's not impossible, but it requires a perfect storm.

The Spurs would need to:

• Win 50+ games and finish as a top-three seed in the West
• Go on a historic winning streak (15-20 games) in the second half of the season
• Have Wemby average 26+ PPG, 12+ RPG, and 3+ BPG down the stretch
• See other MVP candidates (Shai, Jokic) miss significant time or have their teams fall off

Wemby would need to:

• Maintain his current defensive dominance (already there)
• Increase his scoring to 26-28 PPG without sacrificing efficiency
• Add 1-2 more assists per game to pad the all-around stat line
• Win the narrative by carrying the Spurs to an improbable playoff seed

Is this possible? Yes. Is it likely? No. The Spurs aren't built to jump from play-in to top-three seed in one season. That's why +2500 odds exist.

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How to Actually Bet Wemby MVP Right Now

If you're dead set on betting Wemby MVP, here's how to do it without lighting money on fire.

Small hedge on this year (+2500):

Throw a small amount on Wemby at +2500 for this season as a lottery ticket. If the Spurs go on a historic run and he starts dominating the MVP conversation in March, you'll be glad you got the long odds. But don't bet heavy. The Spurs' record makes this a long shot.

Heavier investment in 2027 or 2028 futures:

This is where the smart money goes. Look for books offering 2027 or 2028 MVP futures and bet Wemby at +800 to +1200. By then, the Spurs will be competitive, Wemby will be in his prime, and the narrative will have shifted in his favor. That's the bet with real value.

Monitor Spurs roster moves this offseason:

If the Spurs land a major free agent or make a big trade to pair with Wemby, his 2027 MVP odds will shorten immediately. Get ahead of that by betting before the offseason action happens.

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Final Tips for Betting Wemby MVP

Here's what you need to monitor if you're betting Wemby MVP futures or waiting for the right entry point.

• Watch the Spurs' record closely. If they start stringing together wins and climb into playoff position, Wemby's odds will shorten fast. Get in early if you see momentum building.
• Track MVP voter sentiment. Follow NBA media, podcasts, and MVP ladder rankings. If Wemby starts appearing in top-five MVP conversations regularly, that's a signal the narrative is shifting.
• Monitor the Spurs' offseason moves. If they add a legitimate second scorer or upgrade their supporting cast, Wemby's path to MVP becomes much clearer.
• Use your tools. Whether you're tracking MVP odds across multiple books or following Wemby's game-by-game stats, tie it back to team success and narrative momentum.

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