Tips for Betting on the Long Shot in the NBA

Why NBA Long Shots Can Be Valuable in Basketball Betting

Favorites win often, but sportsbooks price them accordingly. Betting $200 to win $100 on a -200 favorite isn’t always worth the risk. Long shots, on the other hand, offer bigger payouts with smaller stakes.

Example: If the Orlando Magic are +300 underdogs against the Milwaukee Bucks, a $50 bet pays $150 profit if they win. If Giannis Antetokounmpo sits out late, that line becomes mispriced value. Bettors who took Orlando early score.

This is why NBA betting lines on long shots can be profitable for sharp players.

Spotting Value in NBA Betting Odds

The key to long shot betting is spotting where sportsbooks miss. Sports betting odds move fast, but not always perfectly. Look for factors like:

• Injuries or rest days: When stars sit, underdogs gain a real shot.
• Scheduling quirks: Back-to-backs or long road trips hurt favorites.
• Matchup styles: A strong three-point team can upset a favorite with one hot night.

Sports betting online rewards bettors who watch news and react before sportsbooks adjust.

NBA Best Bets: When Long Shots Hit

Long shots don’t have to be random guesses. They’re calculated risks. NBA best bets today often include:

• Underdogs at home: Teams play better with the crowd behind them.
• Division matchups: Rivalries often play closer than expected.
• Live betting swings: If a team falls behind early, live odds inflate. Bettors who expect a comeback can grab big value.

Example: Last season, the New York Knicks upset the Boston Celtics as +250 dogs. Bettors who tracked Boston’s injury report cashed while the public piled on the favorite.

Using Sports Betting Sites and Apps for Long Shots

Sports betting apps give bettors live access to changing numbers. Some sportsbooks react faster than others, which creates chances.

Example: If Luka Doncic is questionable and gets ruled out, one sportsbook might adjust Dallas odds instantly, while another lags. A bettor grabbing the opponent’s moneyline at stale prices secures an edge.

This is why comparing NBA betting sites is critical. Even a small difference in price makes long shots more profitable.

Futures and Long Shot NBA Betting

Futures markets are where long shots really shine. Sports betting sites post title, MVP, and Rookie of the Year odds before the season. Undervalued players and teams can cash big.

Example: If Shai Gilgeous-Alexander opens at +2500 for MVP and finishes top three, bettors who got in early lock in massive value.

This is why sports betting promos often highlight futures bets. They attract casual bettors, but sharp players use them to back real long shot opportunities.

Read more: NBA Betting: The Ultimate Guide for the 2025/2026 Basketball Season

Live Betting Long Shots During Games

Sports betting online allows in-game long shots. Odds swing with momentum, often overreacting to short runs.

Example: If the Warriors trail the Suns by 20 in the second quarter, live odds might list Golden State at +600. Bettors who trust Steph Curry to spark a comeback grab the number. If the Warriors rally, the payout is huge.

Sports betting picks like this require confidence and timing, but they often pay more than pregame bets.

Managing Risk on NBA Long Shots

Betting underdogs doesn’t mean betting blindly. Long shots should be part of a balanced strategy, not the entire bankroll.

Tips:

• Use smaller stakes on long shots compared to favorites.
• Look for plus-money value when odds don’t match team form.
• Avoid chasing every dog; focus on spots with real advantages.

NBA betting sites thrive on casual bettors overspending. Sharp players keep long shots calculated and disciplined.

Example: Mavericks vs Nuggets Long Shot Play

Imagine the Dallas Mavericks playing the Denver Nuggets. The Nuggets are -400 favorites, and the Mavericks are +320 dogs. If Nikola Jokic is questionable with an ankle injury, the Mavericks odds become more attractive. A $100 bet at +320 pays $320 profit if Dallas wins.

This example shows why long shots in NBA betting today are about context, not luck.

Wrapping It Up

Long shots make NBA betting exciting. They carry higher payouts, but with the right strategy, they’re not just gambles. From spotting injury news to leveraging futures and live odds, long shots are where sharp bettors find hidden value.

Basketball betting isn’t only about chasing favorites. Sometimes the smartest play is the riskier one. With discipline, timing, and the right sportsbook, long shots can turn small bets into big wins.

Check out our full betting toolset to start spotting profitable lines.

‍