UFC Betting Explained: Prop Bets Explained

Prop betting is where casual bettors go to gamble for entertainment and where professional bettors go to hunt systematic edges. Proposition bets (props) are wagers on specific outcomes within a fight that fall outside the core markets like moneyline, rounds, and method of victory. A fighter landing over 25 significant strikes, a specific fighter winning a round, a knockdown occurring in the first 60 seconds—these are all props. The prop betting universe is vast, fragmented, and intentionally designed to appeal to entertainment-first bettors.

What Exactly Are Prop Bets?

Prop bets are wagers on specific fight outcomes or events, typically Over/Under bets on fighter statistics or yes/no bets on whether specific events occur. They're fundamentally different from picking winners or predicting how long fights last.

Props focus on the details of how the fight unfolds, not just who wins or when it ends.

Common UFC Prop Categories:

Fighter Stat Props (Over/Under):

• Significant strikes landed (per fighter)
• Takedowns attempted
• Takedowns completed
• Control time (minutes)
• Knockdowns
• Submission attempts

Round-Specific Props:

• Fighter A wins Round 1
• First knockdown occurs in Round 2
• Fight ends in Round 3

Event Props (Yes/No):

• Will there be a knockdown?
• Will a submission be attempted?
• Will the fight go to a decision?
• Performance bonus awarded to either fighter

Cumulative Prop Combinations:

• Fighter A over 25 strikes AND Fighter B over 5 takedowns
• Fighter A wins Round 1 AND over 15 strikes total in Round 1

Props can be as simple or as granular as sportsbooks want to offer. Main event fights might have 30+ different props available. Prelim fights might have just 3-4 basic ones.

Shurzy Tip: Main event props are where casual money floods in. Prelim props are where books get lazy and misprice everything. Guess where the smart money goes?

Read more: The Complete Guide to UFC Betting Types & Markets

Why Props Exist and How Books Profit

Sportsbooks offer props for one fundamental reason: they attract casual bettors who would never bet moneylines or rounds. The entertainment factor is the hook.

A casual UFC fan might not have an opinion on whether Makhachev beats Poirier. But they will bet on "Will there be a knockdown?" or "Over 25 significant strikes" because these feel concrete, observable, and fun.

Books profit from props via:

• Higher juice: Props typically carry 6-10% juice versus 4.5% on moneylines
• Lower sharp money: Fewer professionals attack prop markets, so books can post wider margins
• Correlation profits: When casual bettors build parlays from props, juice compounds across legs
• Behavioral mispricings: Entertainment bettors overprice dramatic outcomes (knockdowns, submissions)

Understanding this dynamic reveals where the edges hide. Books design props to extract maximum juice from entertainment bettors, which creates systematic inefficiencies for analytical bettors to exploit.

Read more: How Round Betting Works

Types of Props and How They're Priced

Significant Strikes Props

What it is: Over/Under on how many "significant strikes" a fighter lands, typically measured per 15 minutes of fight time.

UFC definition of "significant strike": Any strike from a standing or clinch position that lands with some force (not light jabs/kicks). Shots from guard position don't count.

Example pricing: Makhachev over/under 25.5 significant strikes at -110/-110, Poirier over/under 18.5 significant strikes at -110/-110.

Book methodology: Historical data on each fighter's strike output against similar competition, adjusted for opponent's striking defense.

Where pros find edges: Fighters against vastly different defensive profiles (striker versus wrestler changes everything), recent performance bias (fighter had 30 strikes versus weak opponent, market prices 28+ for next fight versus elite opponent), and style matchup mispricings (grappler versus striker totals often way off).

Takedown Props

What it is: Over/Under on takedown attempts or completions.

Examples: Fighter A over/under 4.5 takedown attempts at -110/-110, Fighter B over/under 2.5 takedowns completed at -110/-110.

Book methodology: Fighter's wrestling volume against similar opponents, adjusted for opponent's takedown defense.

Where pros find edges: Elite wrestlers versus poor takedown defense opponents (massive edge), wrestlers versus other elite wrestlers (both strong at defense, totals drop), and strikers facing wrestlers (opponents control wrestling, striker gets low volume).

Control Time Props

What it is: Over/Under on minutes of dominant position control, typically from bottom position threats.

Critical detail: "Control time" in UFC stats equals time spent in dominant position (mostly from top control after takedowns). Striking exchanges don't count as control.

Where pros find edges: Public confuses "winning" with "control time" (striking-based victory doesn't equal grappling control), elite wrestlers versus weak defensive wrestlers (massive control time edge), and championship fights (more rounds equals more time to accumulate control).

Shurzy Tip: Control time only counts from top position after takedowns. A striker who dominates on the feet accumulates zero control time. Market constantly forgets this.

Read more: How Method of Victory Betting Works

The Juice Problem in Props

Props consistently carry more juice than moneylines, which means you need bigger edges to profit.

Typical juice by market:

• Moneyline (main event): 4.5%
• Round totals (main event): 5-6%
• Fighter stat props: 6-10%
• Exotic props (round-specific): 15-20%+

Higher juice means you need higher probability edges to achieve positive expected value. A stat prop needs 8%+ edge versus fair price to overcome the juice differential.

Juice breakdown example: Makhachev over 25.5 strikes at -110 means implied 52.4%. To break even, you need to win exactly 52.4% of these bets. You're paying an extra 2.4% just for the privilege of playing (versus 50/50 fair).

Over a year of 500 prop bets at -110, you'd pay roughly $6,000 in juice (at $1,000 average per bet). Profitable prop betting requires beating the field by enough to absorb that juice and still profit.

Real-World Prop Edge Examples

Example 1: Striker vs. Wrestling Specialist – Strikes Over/Under

Fighter A: Elite striker, 32 significant strikes per 15 minutes against elite strikers
Fighter B: Elite wrestler, forces takedowns, limits striking exchanges

Market pricing: Fighter A over/under 23.5 significant strikes at -110/-110 (52.4% implied on over)

Your analysis: Fighter A's 32 strikes/15 min is against other strikers in upright exchanges. Against elite wrestling, Fighter A will be taken down repeatedly. Takedowns mean less upright striking time. You estimate Fighter A lands 18-20 strikes (under 23.5 true probability approximately 65%).

Edge identification: Market says 52.4% under 23.5, you estimate 65% under 23.5 = +12.6% edge on under

Action: Bet under 23.5 at -110

Why value exists: Market uses Fighter A's general striking rate without adjusting for the fundamental shift in pace when facing elite wrestling. Strikes drop dramatically when you're being taken down repeatedly.

Example 2: Championship Fight – Control Time for Grappler

Fighter C: Elite wrestler, 7.8 minutes average control time in regular fights
Fighter D: Striker with poor takedown defense

Market pricing: Fighter C over/under 8.5 minutes control time at -110/-110 (52.4% implied on over)

Your analysis: Fighter C's 7.8 minute average is across 3-round fights. This is a 5-round championship (67% more time available). Fighter D has notoriously poor TDD (gives up 5.2 takedowns per 15 min). You estimate 11-12 minutes control time (over 8.5 true probability approximately 70%).

Edge identification: Market says 52.4% over 8.5, you estimate 70% over 8.5 = +17.6% edge on over

Action: Aggressively bet over 8.5 at -110

Why value exists: Market prices championship control time like a regular fight, simply scaling up the regular fighter average. Doesn't account for 5-round pacing creating systematically more control opportunities, or the specific opponent's poor TDD making control much easier to accumulate.

Read more: Best UFC Betting Sites

Common Prop Betting Mistakes

Understanding what not to do saves more money than knowing what to do.

Overvaluing entertainment outcomes: Knockdowns and submissions feel exciting, so casual bettors overprice them. Reality: most elite fights don't have knockdowns.

Using general statistics without matchup adjustment: A fighter's average strike count against all competition doesn't apply to this specific matchup with a wrestling specialist.

Ignoring position requirements: Control time only counts from top position. A striking victory doesn't contribute to control time.

Overweighting recent performance: Fighter just had 35 strikes against a weak opponent, so they're priced for 32+ next fight. Market fails to adjust for opponent strength.

Not accounting for fight pacing changes: Championship fights have different pace. Pressing strikers tire. Grapplers accumulate advantages over 25 minutes.

Chasing multilegged parlays without independent edges: Combining three props when only one has real edge means you're diluting your edge with negative EV legs.

Shurzy Tip: If you're betting a prop because "it sounds fun," you're not betting. You're donating to the sportsbook's Christmas bonus fund.

Read more: Common UFC Betting Mistakes

Line Shopping Props

Props show massive variance across books, making line shopping even more critical than on moneylines.

Example variance: FanDuel offers -105 on Over strikes (better odds) but -115 on Under. Different books emphasize different sides based on their customer betting patterns.

Professional bettors:

• Identify which side has edge first
• Then shop that specific side across books
• Always get the best available juice for their preferred outcome

On props especially, line shopping can save 5-10 cents per bet, which compounds significantly over a year. The difference between -105 and -115 on 500 bets is thousands of dollars.

Building a Simple Prop Analysis Framework

You don't need complex models to find prop edges. A systematic approach works perfectly.

Step 1: Identify the specific prop (Example: Fighter A over/under 26.5 significant strikes)

Step 2: Gather relevant statistics (Fighter A's strike average across last 5 fights, strikes against elite opponents specifically)

Step 3: Research the matchup context (Opponent's defensive profile: elite wrestling, forces takedowns, limits exchanges)

Step 4: Estimate true probability (Fighter A against elite wrestling will have fewer upright exchanges. Estimate: 20-22 strikes, meaning under 26.5 is approximately 65% likely)

Step 5: Compare to market (Market: 52.4% over 26.5, You: 65% under 26.5, Edge: +12.6%)

Step 6: Check line shopping opportunities (Get best available odds for your side)

Step 7: Execute and track (Record the prop, the odds, the outcome. Calculate actual CLV)

Read more: UFC Betting for Beginners

When to Avoid Props Entirely

Sometimes the smartest prop bet is not betting at all.

Skip props when:

• Prop totals are far from your estimate but not overwhelmingly so (less than 5% edge after juice)
• Variance is too high (first-round specific events are unpredictable even with research)
• Juice is egregious (15%+ overround with no clear misprice)
• Sample size is too small (fighter has only 3 fights, statistics unreliable)
• Short-notice replacements (unknown fighters, zero history to analyze)

In these situations, you're better off skipping the bet than making marginal plays that will grind your bankroll down through juice accumulation.

Conclusion

Prop betting offers substantial edges because the market is less efficient than moneylines or round totals. Higher juice (6-10% versus 4.5%) creates wider margins, but lower sharp money presence creates more mispricings. The key is understanding that props require matchup-specific analysis, not general fighter statistics.

Most valuable prop edges:

• Strike totals when facing wrestlers (systematic underpricing of wrestling's impact)
• Control time in championship fights (market doesn't adjust for 5-round accumulation)
• Takedown totals versus poor TDD opponents (massive edges on elite wrestlers)
• Event props that entertainment bettors overprice (knockdowns, submissions)

Prop betting isn't for casual bettors betting every available option. It requires fighter statistics analysis, matchup understanding, and the discipline to skip bets when edge doesn't exist. But that complexity means less sharp money competition and more opportunities for those who do the analytical work. Find the edges, line shop relentlessly, and profit.

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