UFC Betting Explained: How Method of Victory Betting Works

Method of Victory betting sits at the intersection of fighter analysis and market inefficiency. Instead of just picking who wins, you're predicting how they win: by knockout, submission, or decision. This slice of the market is consistently softer than moneylines because it demands a deeper understanding of fighter tendencies and matchup dynamics. Most casual bettors simply scroll to "Fighter X by KO" if they remember a highlight reel. Professional bettors take a more systematic approach, breaking down win conditions and pricing them more accurately than the book. This is where deep fight knowledge converts into tangible edges.

What Exactly Is Method of Victory Betting?

Method of Victory markets let you bet on the specific way a fight ends. It's one level deeper than just picking the winner, which is exactly why it offers more value.

The three primary outcomes per fighter:

KO/TKO/DQ: Fighter wins by knockout, technical knockout, or opponent disqualification

Submission: Fighter wins via tap, verbal submission, or referee stoppage due to a submission hold

Decision/Technical Decision: Fight goes the distance and fighter wins on the judges' scorecards

Some books also list "Inside the Distance" (any stoppage: KO/TKO or submission) and "By Any Method" (equivalent to the moneyline), but the core Method of Victory menu is KO, Sub, Decision for each fighter.

Example: Makhachev vs. Poirier, Method of Victory Market

• Makhachev by KO/TKO: +350
• Makhachev by Submission: +250
• Makhachev by Decision: +225
• Poirier by KO/TKO: +600
• Poirier by Submission: +1200
• Poirier by Decision: +500

Each option is a separate bet. If you take Makhachev by Submission and he wins by KO, your bet loses. If he wins a clear decision, your submission ticket still loses even though you were right about the winner.

Shurzy Tip: Most casual bettors just bet the method they saw last. Fighter knocked someone out last time? Everyone bets KO. That's exactly why other methods get underpriced.

Read more: The Complete Guide to UFC Betting Types & Markets

How Books Derive Method of Victory Odds

Understanding how sportsbooks price these markets reveals where the inefficiencies hide.

Sportsbooks start from the moneyline and then allocate that win probability into KO, submission, and decision buckets.

Example breakdown: Imagine the book's internal model says Makhachev wins this fight 70% of the time, Poirier wins 30% of the time.

The model then estimates how those 70% Makhachev wins break down:

• 30% of his wins by KO/TKO
• 40% of his wins by Submission
• 30% of his wins by Decision

So across all simulations:

• Makhachev KO/TKO: 0.70 × 0.30 = 21%
• Makhachev Submission: 0.70 × 0.40 = 28%
• Makhachev Decision: 0.70 × 0.30 = 21%

Then they convert each percentage into American odds, then add juice. That juice is where your edge either dies or survives.

Read more:UFC Betting for Beginners

Why Method of Victory Has More Juice

Method of Victory betting carries significantly more juice than moneylines, which is both a disadvantage and an opportunity.

Unlike a moneyline (two outcomes), Method of Victory splits one fighter's win probability across three outcomes, and both fighters have three. That's up to six outcomes instead of two.

When you add up the implied probabilities on a typical Method of Victory screen, you'll often get totals like 120-130%, compared to approximately 104-105% on a moneyline. That extra 15-25% is the additional juice the book extracts.

Example of summed probabilities from a Method board:

• Makhachev KO: 22%
• Makhachev Sub: 27%
• Makhachev Dec: 23%
• Poirier KO: 13%
• Poirier Sub: 5%
• Poirier Dec: 10%
• Total: approximately 100% + 30% overround

The book is paying you far less than "true" price unless you can outmodel their breakdown. That's the tradeoff: more juice but more mispricing opportunities. The key is finding where the book got the distribution wrong.

When Method of Victory Makes Sense vs. Moneyline

Choosing Method of Victory instead of moneyline comes down to one critical question: Do you have a specific edge on the way the fight ends, not just who wins?

Method of Victory makes sense when:

• The moneyline looks fair, but the distribution of win conditions is wrong
• You're confident a big favorite mostly wins by one method (e.g., dominant wrestler by decision)
• You want a plus-money angle on a favorite with a chalk moneyline

Example scenario: Makhachev moneyline at -300 (75% implied). Your model says 75-78% true win probability, so little to no value on the moneyline itself.

But you think most of his wins here are submissions, not KOs or decisions. The book posts:

• Makhachev by Sub: +250 (28.6% implied)
• Makhachev by Decision: +275 (26.7% implied)
• Makhachev by KO: +500 (16.7% implied)

If you reasonably estimate his submission win share around 40-45% of all outcomes, +250 is severely mispriced, even though -300 moneyline is fair. This is where Method of Victory creates value.

Read more:UFC Betting Explained: Method of Victory Odds Explained

Archetypes: How Different Fighter Styles Map to Methods

Understanding fighter archetypes helps you identify systematic mispricings in Method of Victory markets.

Pure KO Artists:

Traits: High KO rate, low submission game, aggressive stand-up, limited grappling

Market behavior: Books and public overprice KO, underprice Decision

Best angles: Value often on Decision when facing durable, defensively sound opponents. Everyone sees the KO threat.

Submission Specialists:

Traits: High submission rate, strong BJJ or wrestling, limited striking but excellent control

Market behavior: Sub is often undervalued versus moneyline when opponent has poor submission defense. Public still gravitates to KO tickets.

Best angles: Sub versus low-level grapplers regularly mispriced. In some matchups, Sub price is the cleanest positive EV angle on the card.

Decision Machines (Point Fighters):

Traits: High cardio, volume striking, safe distance control, limited finishing power

Market behavior: Decision often underpriced early in fighter's career. Public hates betting "boring" decisions.

Best angles: Decision versus durable opponents is often the true default outcome. When two decision-heavy fighters clash, both Decision props can be mispriced.

Balanced Finishers:

Traits: Can win by KO, Sub, or Dec depending on matchup. 30-40% by each method historically.

Market behavior: Books tend to mirror historical split too literally. Public piles onto the last method they saw (recency bias).

Best angles: Fade recency bias. If last win was a KO, KO gets overpriced. Look at opponent's defensive profile to decide which paths are actually live this time.

Shurzy Tip: Elite grapplers facing strikers with poor takedown defense? Bet submission at +400 and higher. Market consistently underprices this because casual bettors don't understand grappling dynamics.

Matchup Context: The Real Driver of Method Edges

True edges almost never come from one fighter in isolation. They come from the clash of styles, which is what makes Method of Victory betting so profitable for analytical bettors.

Critical matchup considerations:

• KO striker versus granite-chin wrestler: KO percentage drops, Decision percentage rises
• Submission artist versus anti-grappler: Sub percentage drops, Decision or KO percentage rises
• Gas tank issues versus cardio monster: Late-round finish/Decision split changes

Method of Victory bets must account for:

• Opponent's chin/durability
• Opponent's takedown defense and grappling IQ
• Weight class (heavyweight versus lightweight finish profiles)
• Championship versus 3-round pacing
• Southpaw/orthodox dynamics for striking matchups

Fighter-level stats are just the starting point. The matchup reshapes the whole probability tree. This is where sharp bettors separate themselves from casual money.

Read more:Best UFC Betting Sites

Building a Simple Method of Victory Model

You don't need complex spreadsheets to find edges in Method of Victory betting. A practical approach works just fine.

Step 1: Start from your moneyline view. Example: You think Fighter A wins 65% of the time.

Step 2: Break Fighter A's wins into method buckets based on style and matchup. Rough example versus a durable striker:

• 25% of wins by KO
• 10% by Sub
• 65% by Decision

Step 3: Calculate across all outcomes:

• KO: 0.65 × 0.25 = 16.25%
• Sub: 0.65 × 0.10 = 6.5%
• Dec: 0.65 × 0.65 = 42.25%

Step 4: Convert to "fair" odds and compare to book:

• KO fair approximately +515
• Sub fair approximately +1,440
• Dec fair approximately +137

Step 5: Look at actual board prices:

• KO at +400: Underpriced (book giving worse odds than fair)
• Sub at +800: Close but still not enough
• Dec at +200: You're being paid more than fair for the likeliest method

Step 6: Act only where there is clear edge. Here, Decision is the only serious candidate.

Combining Moneyline and Method of Victory Bets

Smart bettors use Method of Victory to shape their portfolio on a fight rather than replacing moneyline bets entirely.

Portfolio structure example:

You like Makhachev -200 (66.7% implied, you estimate 72%). You also believe most of his additional edge is via submission. Market posts Sub at +250 (28.6% implied, you estimate 35-38%).

Structure:

• 2 units on moneyline
• 0.5-1 unit on Sub at +250

If he wins by anything but Sub, you still cash the main bet. If he wins by Sub, you maximize edge. This layered approach captures value without overexposing yourself to one specific outcome.

Read more: UFC Betting Explained: UFC Moneyline Odds Explained

When to Avoid Method of Victory Markets

Even though the edges can be large, there are times to skip Method of Victory entirely and stick with moneylines or other markets.

Skip Method of Victory when:

• Finish profile is genuinely balanced and the book's odds roughly match your splits
• Wild-card fights (short-notice replacements, unknown competition level)
• High-variance brawls where anything can happen and prediction of method is closer to roulette
• Juice is egregious (sum of implied probabilities 130%+, no obvious misprice)

In these spots, you are usually better off sticking with the moneyline or round totals where the juice is lower and the market is more efficient.

Common Mistakes in Method of Victory Betting

Understanding what not to do is as important as knowing what to do.

Chasing narrative KOs: "He has to make a statement" is not analysis. It's emotion.

Ignoring opponent durability: Iron-chinned veterans rarely get sparked early. Market forgets this constantly.

Overreacting to last fight: One KO doesn't redefine a fighter's career profile. Recency bias kills bankrolls.

Forgetting that "win by decision" still requires winning rounds: Not just surviving. The fighter needs to actually win on scorecards.

Firing at longshots with no quantified edge: "+1200 looks tasty" is not a betting strategy. A long price isn't automatically good. It must be better than what your probability estimate justifies.

Read more: Common UFC Betting Mistakes

Line Shopping Matters Even More Here

Method of Victory prices vary more across books than moneylines, making line shopping absolutely critical.

Example variance: One book posts Fighter A by KO at +300. Another posts Fighter A by KO at +360.

On a $500 bet, that's the difference between $1,500 profit and $1,800 profit. Across a year of serious betting, that gap compounds into thousands of dollars.

For Method of Victory markets, always:

• Check multiple books before placing a bet
• Prioritize books that regularly hang softer prop numbers
• Track where you typically get the best Method of Victory prices and bias volume there

Conclusion

Method of Victory betting starts from the moneyline, splits a fighter's win probability into KO, Sub, and Decision buckets, adds heavy juice because there are more outcomes to price, and offers bigger mispricings than moneyline because fewer sharp bettors model it correctly.

To use it intelligently: Build a rough view of how often each fighter wins. Break those wins into KO/Sub/Dec based on style and matchup. Convert your percentages into rough "fair" odds. Compare those to the book's board. Only fire where there's clear edge and you understand why the book is wrong. Line shop relentlessly across multiple books.

Method of Victory isn't about being clever or calling a spectacular KO on social media. It's about understanding how a fighter's skills and their opponent's weaknesses create specific win pathways, then exploiting when the market misprices those pathways. Do the work, find the edges, and profit.

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