UFC Betting Explained: The 10-Point Must System and Beyond

The UFC betting market presents one of the most accessible and rewarding opportunities in modern sports wagering. Unlike traditional sports with point spreads and season-long narratives, UFC betting centers on discrete, binary outcomes. A fighter wins or loses. Simple.

But here's what separates casual bettors from sharp bettors: understanding the 10-point must scoring system that determines approximately 40-50% of UFC outcomes. If you're betting UFC fights without knowing how judges score rounds, you're gambling on half the card completely blind. You'll bet a fighter who "clearly won" and watch them lose a decision, then complain about robberies instead of realizing you never understood what judges actually reward.

This guide explains how odds work, what markets exist, how the scoring system impacts betting strategy, and the professional approaches that experienced bettors employ to identify value.

Read more: The Complete Guide to UFC Judges, Scoring & Decisions

Understanding UFC Moneyline Odds

The moneyline represents the simplest and most popular UFC wager: picking which fighter wins the bout, regardless of method or timing. Sportsbooks display odds in American format, with minus signs indicating favorites and plus signs indicating underdogs.

Reading American Odds

Negative odds (favorites): For -130, you must risk $130 to win $100 in profit, receiving $230 total if correct.

Positive odds (underdogs): For +110, a $100 bet wins $110 in profit, totaling $210 if the wager hits.

Converting Odds to Implied Probability

Converting odds to implied probability reveals what the sportsbook's line suggests about each fighter's true chances.

For a -135 favorite: 135 divided by (135+100) = 57.4% implied probability

For a +110 underdog: 100 divided by (100+110) = 47.6% implied probability

Notice the two sides add to more than 100%. That's the "juice" or "vig," the sportsbook's commission, typically around 4-5% total across both sides at standard -110 pricing. This is how books make money regardless of who wins.

Line Movement and Value

Sportsbooks adjust lines constantly based on betting action, attempting to balance liability on both sides while capturing their commission. When large money flows toward a favorite, the book may shorten the favorite's odds (make them more negative, lowering the payout) and lengthen the underdog odds (increase the plus value, raising the payout) to attract contrarian bettors.

This line movement creates opportunities for sharp bettors who identify overvalued or undervalued fighters relative to the true market assessment. If you think a fighter has a 60% chance to win but the odds imply only 52%, that's value. Bet it.

Shurzy Tip: The relationship between odds and bet sizing proves critical for long-term profitability. When you identify positive expected value, bet bigger. High-confidence picks at minimal odds value warrant smaller bets. Don't bet the same amount on every fight.

The Full Range of UFC Betting Markets

Beyond simple moneyline wagers, sportsbooks offer specialized markets that reward bettors with detailed fight knowledge.

Over/Under Round Betting

Over/under betting allows wagering on fight duration. Most non-title UFC bouts are three rounds (15 minutes total), with common lines at 1.5 or 2.5 rounds.

How the .5 works: Betting over 2.5 rounds means the fight must last at least 2 minutes and 31 seconds into the third round. Betting under 2.5 means it must finish by 2 minutes and 29 seconds of the third round. Championship fights extending five rounds feature lines at 3.5 and 4.5.

Understanding styles matters: Aggressive strikers known for early finishes push lines toward the under. Wrestlers and defensive fighters who control tempo from position favor the over. A matchup between a knockout artist and a durable defender might see an under 1.5 line heavily favored, while two high-cardio strikers facing each other might generate an over 2.5 line.

Method of Victory Betting

Method of victory requires predicting both the winner and the finish mechanism: knockout/TKO/disqualification, submission, or judge's decision.

A fighter bet to win "by decision" must not only win the bout but also have it reach the judges' scorecards without stoppage. These bets pay significantly more than simple moneylines. A favorite might be -130 moneyline but +160 to win by decision, reflecting the increased specificity required.

Round Betting

Round betting targets the exact round in which a fight ends. This represents the highest-specificity, highest-payout market. A fighter might carry +600 odds to win in round one, +750 in round two, +900 in round three, and progressively higher odds in later rounds.

The payouts reflect genuine difficulty. Correctly predicting both the winner and exact round of finish requires substantial knowledge and moderate luck. Round betting shines when you identify stylistic mismatches likely to end quickly or when you're familiar with specific fighter finishing tendencies.

Prop Bets

Prop bets encompass any market beyond traditional categories: will the fight go the distance, will there be a knockdown, specific takedown totals, first fighter to attempt a submission, and countless others. These markets often feature the sharpest odds but also the highest variance.

Read more: UFC Betting Explained: How to Predict Fight Scoring Outcomes

How the 10-Point Must System Works

The 10-point must system creates the foundation upon which all decision betting rests. Understanding how judges score rounds, the rarity of certain scores, and judges' historical biases enables you to identify mispriced decision odds.

The Basic Structure

In the 10-point must system, the winner of each round receives 10 points while the loser receives 9 or fewer, depending on the round's dominance level.

10-9 round: The overwhelming majority of UFC rounds. Indicates one fighter won but only marginally. Both fighters could arguably claim to have competed evenly except for the judge's determination that the winner landed slightly cleaner striking, more effective grappling, or demonstrated superior octagon control.

10-8 round: Signals a substantially larger margin of victory, awarded when one fighter demonstrates clear dominance through devastating striking, effective takedowns with sustained control, or submission attempts. Updated judging criteria explicitly state judges must award 10-8 rounds when they determine a fighter achieved two or more of three key elements: impact, dominance, and duration.

Here's the problem: despite these clear guidelines, judges award 10-8 rounds conservatively, perhaps in only 5-10% of rounds deserving them by rule. This creates a betting edge. Sportsbooks may underprice decision odds for dominant fighters if they haven't accounted for the low frequency of 10-8 awards.

10-7 round: Represents a mythical occurrence. Four instances across thousands of UFC fights. You can virtually ignore its possibility when evaluating decision odds.

Judge Biases and Betting Implications

Judge biases directly influence decision odds and represent a critical factor in identifying value.

Common judge biases:

• Some judges favor striking over grappling, potentially undervaluing effective grappling performances
• Others consistently reward aggression and forward movement even when ineffective, favoring aggressive strikers over patient counter-strikers who land cleaner but less frequent strikes
• Some over-value cage control despite it being the lowest-priority scoring criterion

Understanding which judges are assigned to specific fights and their historical scoring tendencies can identify scenarios where decision odds misprice certain matchups.

Recent judging trends emphasize effective striking and grappling over cage control, but the shift occurred gradually and incompletely across all state commissions. A fighter known for tactical grappling might find improved decision odds in California (consistently applying the new criteria) versus Nevada (slower to implement changes).

Read more: UFC Betting Explained: 10-Point Must System Explained

Betting Strategy: Finding Value and Building an Edge

Professional UFC bettors don't attempt to predict winners on every bout. Instead, they focus on identifying positive expected value, situations where the sportsbook has mispriced odds relative to actual probable outcomes.

Calculate Implied Probability, Then Compare

The first step involves calculating implied probability from odds and then comparing it to independent analysis. If your assessment consistently shows higher probability than odds imply, you've identified a value bet.

A fighter given 41.7% implied probability on +140 odds might objectively have a 55% chance to win based on detailed analysis. Over many bets at that price, you'll profit despite losing some individual wagers.

Analyze Style Matchups

Fighter style matchups determine how fights will likely unfold and directly impact decision/stoppage odds.

Examples:

• Strikers without takedown defense facing elite grapplers = high finish probability (favor under bets and submission props)
• Defensive wrestlers with excellent TDD facing strikers = extended decision probability (favor over bets and decision props)
• High-cardio strikers facing patient, tactical fighters = different pace expectations affecting round betting

Context Matters for Recent Performance

Recent performance indicates current form, but context matters enormously. A fighter who lost their last three bouts might be significantly undervalued if those losses came to stronger opponents, came by close decision, or resulted from injuries now healed.

A fighter with five consecutive victories might be overvalued if those wins came against weaker opponents, suggesting the sportsbook is extrapolating too aggressively.

Bankroll Management

Recommended bet sizes range from 1-3% of total bankroll per individual wager. Strict avoidance of revenge bets, double-sized parlays following losses, or emotional over-commitment to any single fight.

The unpredictability of MMA (where flash knockouts and injury stoppages end fights regardless of demonstrated skill differences) demands emotional discipline and long-term thinking.

Read more: UFC Betting Explained: What Judges Look For

Combining Knowledge: Scoring System and Decision Odds

Sophisticated bettors synthesize scoring system knowledge with fighter analysis to identify decision odds value.

If you believe a fighter will dominate two rounds decisively and win the third narrowly, you're projecting 29-28 or better scorecards. Decision odds should offer value if judges have consistently shown bias against crediting that fighter's style.

If you believe the fight will be extremely close, barely favoring one fighter, the high variance and judge-dependent nature of the outcome should push you away from decision betting regardless of odds. Instead, target method-specific props that don't require accuracy about which fighter wins.

The 10-8 reality: If a fighter you've analyzed is likely to win via clear dominance in at least two rounds, judges' conservative 10-9 scoring of those rounds doesn't change the probable outcome. The fighter still wins on points. However, if you're analyzing a close fight where victory depends on perfectly splitting rounds at 10-9 boundaries, understanding that one fighter's style might receive different scoring treatment becomes critical.

Shurzy Tip: The scoring system's inherent biases (sometimes unintentional, sometimes reflecting judge education gaps) create opportunities for informed bettors. Most bettors don't understand judging. You do. That's your edge.

Conclusion

UFC betting rewards preparation, discipline, and genuine market edge. The 10-point must system forms the foundation determining approximately 40-50% of UFC outcomes, making scoring knowledge essential for decision and method-of-victory betting.

The bettors who thrive recognize that consistent small edges across many wagers outperform sporadic large wins, and that emotional discipline and long-term thinking separate sustainable profits from eventual losses. Most bettors chase every fight. Winners pick their spots based on identified edge. Know the scoring system, understand what judges actually reward, and bet accordingly.

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