UFC Biggest Upset Predictions 2026

Which Upsets Have Already Happened in 2026?

MMA Junkie tracks all 2026 upsets at plus-150 or more in real time, and Tapology's fan-voted biggest upset list is already populated through mid-March with some genuinely spectacular results.

Jordan Leavitt at plus-330 defeating Yadier del Valle at minus-420 at UFC Fight Night 267 is the biggest odds upset of the year so far. Leavitt at more than 4-to-1 beating a heavy favorite by decision. If you were on Leavitt at that price, that single ticket covered a lot of losing bets.

King Green at plus-315 defeating Daniel Zellhuber at minus-400 at UFC Fight Night 268 in Mexico City via TKO in round two. A massive upset on Zellhuber's home soil that the crowd did not see coming and that the betting market clearly did not price correctly.

Sean Strickland at plus-205 defeating Anthony Hernandez at UFC Fight Night 267 is the most significant upset of the year so far in terms of title implications. Strickland won as a plus-money underdog and now fights Khamzat Chimaev at UFC 328 for the middleweight belt. His path from underdog to title challenger in a single fight is one of the best UFC betting stories of the year.

Justin Gaethje at plus-185 defeating Paddy Pimblett at UFC 324 is the biggest mainstream upset of the year. Pimblett was a heavy favorite in an interim lightweight title fight and Gaethje knocked him off with the veteran experience and pressure fighting that has defined his career.

Lone'er Kavanagh at plus-165 defeating Brandon Moreno at UFC Fight Night 268 is Tapology's number one fan-voted upset of the year. Beating a former champion and title contender at plus money is the exact kind of result that makes UFC betting genuinely exciting on every card.

Rizvan Kuniev at plus-155 defeating Jailton Almeida at UFC Fight Night 266 is Tapology's number four fan vote. Almeida was building momentum toward a title shot and Kuniev's win stopped that trajectory immediately.

Read more: The Complete Guide to UFC Underdog Betting

Which Upsets Are Most Likely Still to Come in 2026?

These are the predicted upsets that analysts and prediction outlets are specifically flagging for the rest of the year. All three carry genuine probability rather than pure lottery ticket status.

Sean Strickland beats Khamzat Chimaev at UFC 328 is the most credible predicted upset remaining on the calendar. Strickland just beat Anthony Hernandez as a plus-205 underdog. He will likely enter the Chimaev fight at plus-300 or beyond. His grinding volume, elite chin, and the specific stylistic problems that high-output pressure fighters create for grapplers make this a genuine betting opportunity rather than a pure long shot. The market will price Chimaev as a heavy favorite based on wrestling dominance, but Strickland's output rate creates real problems before that wrestling can consistently control the fight.

Jiri Prochazka beats Alex Pereira is Bleacher Report's boldest prediction for 2026. Two losses to Pereira on his record and yet every analyst acknowledges that Prochazka's finishing power keeps him live in every exchange until the final bell. His KO/TKO method of victory prop at plus money in a third fight against Pereira is the specific bet worth building a position around before the fight is formally announced.

Shavkat Rakhmonov returns healthy and upsets Islam Makhachev is the long-shot predicted upset with the highest potential odds. If booked, Rakhmonov would enter as an underdog against a two-division champion despite being undefeated himself. Stylistically he is the most dangerous welterweight in the world when healthy. Getting his title shot odds now before the fight is announced is the most forward-looking futures bet in this conversation.

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How to Bet UFC Upsets Before They Happen

The practical framework for finding plus-money value before the market fully closes.

Strickland at plus-300 or beyond against Chimaev is the single most actionable predicted upset bet available right now. His recent result as a plus-205 underdog and his stylistic advantages against grappling-heavy opponents make the price genuinely too long for his actual win probability. Getting his moneyline before the public money pushes it slightly shorter is the timing play.

For the longer shots, small positions on Prochazka title shot odds and Rakhmonov title shot odds before either fight is announced costs very little and pays significantly if either scenario plays out. The window to get ahead of those prices closes the moment booking is confirmed.

Read more: The Most Dangerous Underdogs in the UFC Ranked for 2026

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