UFC Fighters Most Likely to Become Champion in 2026

Which Fighters Have the Clearest Paths to a Title?

These contenders are either already booked for title fights, are mandatory challengers, or are one win away from a guaranteed shot. Their paths are the most actionable for futures betting.

Arman Tsarukyan at lightweight is the number one contender and the mandatory challenger for Ilia Topuria's belt. If Topuria pursues a welterweight superfight against Makhachev, Tsarukyan could win the vacant title without even fighting him. If Topuria defends, Tsarukyan's wrestling and grappling give him the specific tools that create genuine matchup problems for a boxing-based champion. His title shot odds at any plus-money price before the fight is formally announced represent the clearest futures value in the lightweight division.

Sean Strickland at middleweight is already booked against Khamzat Chimaev at UFC 328. He won the title once before as an underdog, just beat Anthony Hernandez as a plus-205 dog, and will likely enter the Chimaev fight at plus-300 or beyond. His grinding volume and elite chin are specifically designed to create problems for pressure wrestlers who struggle when opponents refuse to get overwhelmed early. Back him at whatever plus-money price the market offers before public betting on Chimaev compresses the line.

Alexandre Pantoja at flyweight is the clearest retention reversal bet in the sport. He was winning his title defense against Joshua Van when his elbow dislocated seconds into the fight and forced a stoppage. ESPN and theScore both predict he reclaims the belt before year's end. The Independent gives Van only a 3/10 chance of surviving 2026 as champion. Pantoja to be flyweight champion at year's end is the most obvious futures bet available at any reasonable price.

Merab Dvalishvili at bantamweight lost the belt to Petr Yan at UFC 323 but remains arguably the best 135-pound fighter on the planet by most metrics. TheScore predicts he wins the belt back, and the trilogy fight is almost certain to happen. His title to be bantamweight champion by year's end carries value at any plus-money price given how clearly the prediction consensus leans his direction.

Read more: The Complete Guide to UFC Futures Betting

Which Contenders Are One Win Away From a Shot?

These fighters need one more performance to lock up their title opportunity, creating pre-fight futures value before that win happens and the market adjusts.

Movsar Evloev at featherweight fights Lerone Murphy on March 21, 2026 in what is effectively a number one contender fight. His unbeaten UFC record of 12-0 and his top contender status mean a win immediately positions him as the most logical challenger for Volkanovski. Getting his title shot futures or year-end champion futures before the Murphy fight result is confirmed is the specific timing play.

Lerone Murphy at featherweight has the same stakes and the same timing window. His 17-0-1 unbeaten professional record and the quality of his recent competition make him equally deserving of the title shot. Whichever fighter wins this bout becomes an immediate and clear challenger.

Umar Nurmagomedov at bantamweight is specifically picked by ESPN to factor into the title picture. Younger, faster, and technically cleaner than most contenders at 135 pounds, his combination of wrestling and striking creates problems for both Yan and Dvalishvili in different ways. His title shot odds before that specific fight is booked represent the best value in the bantamweight futures market right now.

Zhang Weili at strawweight is widely expected to return from flyweight and reclaim the 115-pound belt from Mackenzie Dern. The Independent gave Dern only a 3/10 chance of surviving a Weili return. Zhang to be strawweight champion at year's end is the most predictable divisional outcome in the women's divisions, and her title shot or year-end championship odds should reflect clear favoritism.

Which Long Shots Are Worth a Small Position?

These predicted champions are longer shots with genuine probability attached, making small speculative positions worth considering.

Jiri Prochazka at light heavyweight is Bleacher Report's boldest 2026 prediction. Two losses to Pereira on his record, but his finishing power keeps him live in every exchange until the final bell. His title shot odds at plus money before the fight is formally announced is the highest upside legitimate long shot in any division futures market.

Carlos Ulberg at light heavyweight has all but guaranteed his shot at gold according to RNZ, with a steady rise through the division and New Zealand national attention amplifying his profile. His year-end champion odds at long prices represent a reasonable small position given the volatility at 205 pounds.

Shavkat Rakhmonov at welterweight would enter a Makhachev title fight as an underdog despite being undefeated. His stylistic profile creates more problems for Makhachev than any other welterweight currently available. His title shot odds before booking is confirmed is the most forward-looking futures position in the entire welterweight division.

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How to Build a Futures Portfolio Around New Champions

The practical framework for positioning yourself before the market moves.

Lead with the clearest paths: Pantoja to reclaim flyweight, Tsarukyan at lightweight before the fight announcement, and Strickland at whatever plus-money price the Chimaev fight opens at. These three positions cover the most likely new champions at prices that still offer meaningful returns.

Add one speculative position: Prochazka at light heavyweight or Rakhmonov at welterweight as a small long-shot add that costs little and pays significantly if either scenario plays out before year's end.

The window on all of these closes fast. UFC futures prices tighten dramatically once fights are formally announced and public money flows in. Getting ahead of the booking confirmation is the most consistent edge in UFC futures betting.

Read more: The Next Superfight the UFC Has to Make

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