Sports Betting

UFC Submission of the Year Prediction 2026

Submissions end fights in a way that knockouts never quite match. The moment a fighter taps, the entire crowd processes what just happened simultaneously. The best ones in any given year become permanent references in grappling conversations for years afterward. Tapology's fan-voted best submissions of 2026 are already active and populated through mid-March. Here is every early candidate worth knowing and every predicted late-year submission that could take the award.

March 26, 2026

Which Submissions Are Already in the Running?

The early months of 2026 have already produced several finishes that are generating genuine award buzz among fans and analysts.

Mario Bautista is one of the first names on Tapology's early fan-vote list. His rear-naked choke finish is the kind of clean, technically polished submission that voters respond to because it shows positional control rather than just scramble hunting. Bautista chooses his finish positions carefully, which makes his submissions look effortless in ways that generate repeat viewing.

Jacobe Smith at welterweight submitted Niko Price at UFC 317, entering his second UFC year at 11-0 with two Octagon finishes across two different methods. Price is a veteran the community respects, which elevates the perceived quality of the submission in voting. When fans recognize the person being submitted, the finish carries more weight.

Joseph Morales at flyweight extended a five-fight win streak with a first-round submission over veteran Matt Schnell, a finish UFC.com specifically highlighted. A smooth, clean finish over a recognizable name near the flyweight rankings puts him in early contention.

Alexia Thainara at strawweight earned a debut submission over Molly McCann in London in March 2026. A debut finish over a fan-favorite veteran in a packed UK venue is exactly the kind of story that generates voter enthusiasm beyond the technical quality of the finish itself.

Quillan Salkilld is primarily known for his KO debut, but UFC.com noted his submission finishing ability adds variety to his game. If he picks up a submission finish in 2026 alongside his KO credentials, he becomes one of the most complete finishing prospects in the division.

Which Late-Year Submissions Could Win the Award?

The fighters most likely to produce the Submission of the Year before December all share one thing: their grappling creates finishing threats that no one in their division has fully solved.

Charles Oliveira: Holds the all-time UFC submission record at 17 and every fight he takes is a live SOTY candidate. If Tsarukyan or another elite lightweight scrambles with him, the result could be historic given the context and the names involved.
Islam Makhachev: His rear-naked choke and d'arce choke library is the most efficient in the sport. A statement submission over a welterweight contender like Ian Garry, Michael Morales, or Rakhmonov would be automatic SOTY conversation given the division's talent level.
Khamzat Chimaev: If he wins the Strickland title defense by submission, it becomes the year's biggest submission given the stakes and the setting. His face-crank finish of Robert Whittaker showed creativity that voters specifically respond to.
Anthony Hernandez: Five UFC submission wins across diverse techniques with a consistent habit of hunting positions others would not attempt. His appearance on the UFC breakout list and the YouTube top-10 submission list simultaneously tells you analysts are watching him closely.

How to Bet Around Submission of the Year Candidates

The award itself is not directly bettable, but the fighters most likely to produce it create specific prop value in every fight they take.

Submission method of victory props on Oliveira and Makhachev are the most reliable in the sport. Their submission rates against opponents who have not shown elite scrambling ability justify the position at any plus-money price. When either fighter is matched against a grappling-limited opponent, the submission prop is almost always better expected value than the KO/TKO prop.

Chimaev submission props against Strickland specifically deserve attention. Strickland's wrestling defense is not elite, and a submission finish in a title fight would be the kind of spectacular result that generates award buzz immediately. The over on submission attempts in that fight is worth exploring before the card.

Hernandez as a live underdog with submission method of victory at plus money is the specific combination that creates the highest expected value in his fights. His hunting instinct from positions that most fighters give up on creates finishes that the market does not price into his straight moneyline.

Before placing your next wager, take a look at the Live Odds on Shurzy. Compare current lines, futures markets, and betting trends across the NHL, NBA, MLB, UFC and more.

The Single Best Submission of the Year Bet

If you are building one position specifically around the SOTY conversation, it is Chimaev submission method of victory against Strickland at UFC 328.

The stakes make it the most impactful submission of the year if it happens. A championship submission finish generates more voter enthusiasm than the same technical finish in a non-title fight. Strickland's chin makes it unlikely but not impossible, and the specific grappling gap between them creates enough ground opportunity that the submission prop at plus money is worth a small position before the fight.

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