Why "Takedowns Landed" Props Are Mispriced on Some Cards

"Takedowns landed" props get mispriced because books lean on crude averages and labels like "wrestler" instead of matchup-specific context: attempts, style, opponent TDD, and win condition. That leads to overs being too high on some cards and too low on others.

Most prop bettors ignore takedown props entirely. They're boring, they're niche, and they don't have the sexy appeal of knockout props. That's exactly why they're profitable. Books spend 90% of their effort on moneylines and maybe 5% on takedown props, which means the numbers are soft and exploitable if you know what to look for.

Let's break down how these props get mispriced and how to actually beat them.

Books Use Simple Averages, Not True Context

Prop menus often start from a fighter's career takedown average per 15 minutes, nudged up or down a bit for the opponent. That's it. No deep analysis, no matchup-specific adjustments, just historical averages plus maybe a point for the opponent's takedown defense.

Analytics sites point out that books "spend 90% of their effort" on main moneylines and far less on niche props like takedowns, often "copy-pasting from templates" and moving only on sharp action. Understanding how to use UFC analytics for predictions shows you how to dig deeper than books do.

Mispricing Happens When Context Gets Ignored

A fighter's historical average comes from very different matchups. Easy takedowns vs cans, or being forced to wrestle when losing on the feet. But this opponent pushes them into a completely different game. When you're analyzing wrestling matchups, opponent style matters as much as the wrestler's skill.

The line doesn't account for the opponent's TDD, scrambling, or clinch style, which massively changes how many takedowns can be landed. Understanding takedown rate and defense metrics helps you quantify these matchup dynamics.

Books price takedowns like this:

• Pull fighter's career average per 15 minutes
• Check opponent's TDD percentage
• Adjust the line 0.5 to 1.5 either way
• Post the prop and hope nobody does real homework

That's not handicapping. That's template betting. And it creates opportunity for bettors who actually watch tape and understand styles.

Shurzy Tip: If the takedown prop looks like it was set by someone who's never watched either fighter, it probably was. That's your edge.

Styles That Inflate or Suppress Takedown Counts

Takedowns landed props care about volume and persistence, not just "is he a wrestler?" Two fighters can both be labeled wrestlers but have completely different takedown volume profiles.

High-Attempt Chain Wrestlers

Guides call these "wrestle-heavy grapplers" who "shoot often and control from top," and describe their matchups as "gold for takedown and control time props." Think Merab Dvalishvili or Curtis Blaydes archetypes. When you're evaluating wrestling chains, these guys never stop shooting.

They'll blow through a low over number even against decent TDD because they just keep trying. Six failed attempts and four completed takedowns still means four takedowns landed. Books often underprice overs on these fighters because they look at success rate instead of sheer volume.

One-and-Done Shot Guys and Clinch Controllers

Some "wrestlers" shoot once per round, then hug the fence or ride top. Great for winning fights but often bad for overs on pure takedowns landed. Understanding how to evaluate grappling control shows you the difference between control wrestlers and takedown-volume wrestlers.

These fighters might average 2.5 takedowns per 15 minutes, but in specific matchups that number tanks to 1 or explodes to 5 depending on opponent style. Books miss this nuance entirely.

Opponents with Strong TDD and Instant Stand-Ups

Here's where it gets interesting. Fighters who pop up quickly can actually inflate takedown counts because the wrestler is forced to re-shoot and hit mat returns, which UFC Stats counts as multiple takedowns. When you're looking at how styles clash, quick scrambles create more takedown opportunities than sustained top control.

A wrestler might land one takedown and hold position for four minutes against a passive opponent. That's one takedown. But against a fighter who stands immediately, that same wrestler might land four takedowns in four minutes. Same time, different count. Books don't adjust for this properly.

Shurzy Tip: Fighters with high scramble rates and quick stand-ups often lead to over hits on takedown props. The wrestler keeps shooting because the opponent keeps getting up.

Matchups That Create Mispriced Lines

Common mispricing patterns show up repeatedly once you know what to look for.

Over Set Too High

Grappler vs elite defensive wrestler or pure sprawl-and-brawl striker: The favorite is a "wrestler" on paper, so books hang a high over/under, but in reality they may either abandon shots or spend the fight clinching instead of completing takedowns.

Smart prop guides explicitly warn: "Target unders on volume for fights expected to end early or feature clinch-heavy stalemates." When you're looking at control time and ground metrics, clinch time doesn't equal takedowns landed.

Books see "wrestler" and set the line at 3.5 or 4.5. But if the wrestler typically clinches and controls rather than shooting, or if the opponent stuffs everything and the wrestler gives up, the actual number might be 1 or 2.

Over Set Too Low

Volume wrestler vs opponent with bad TDD and weak scrambling: Books shade the number up a bit, but not enough for a Merab-type who can land 6-10+ takedowns because every failed stand-up becomes another score.

When a chain wrestler faces someone with 50% TDD who also scrambles poorly, the takedown volume explodes. Books might set the line at 4.5 when the real number should be 6.5 or 7.5. That's massive value on the over.

Lines Ignoring Win Condition

If a wrestler's clearest path is 15 minutes of takedowns and top control, their incentive is to rack up shot attempts. If their easiest path is one big KO or quick submission, takedown volume may be far lower than the average suggests.

Books don't adjust for game plan. They just look at historical averages and opponent TDD. Understanding predictive metrics that matter shows you how win condition affects fight strategy.

Shurzy Tip: Check the matchup win condition. If the wrestler needs to wrestle to win, they're shooting constantly. If they can win on the feet, they might not wrestle at all.

How to Actually Beat Takedown Props

Key checks before you bet any takedown prop. Run this systematically every time.

Takedown Attempts Trend, Not Just Landed

Does the wrestler keep shooting when stuffed, or do they mentally fold and start striking? Watching approach by matchup is crucial. Prop guides highlight "do they chase takedowns relentlessly or abandon them after one stuffed shot?" as a core question.

Pull up their last five fights and check not just takedowns landed, but attempts. If they average 8 attempts per fight regardless of success rate, they're persistent. If attempts drop from 6 to 2 when the first one gets stuffed, they're fragile. Understanding evaluating wrestling chains helps you separate persistent shooters from one-and-done wrestlers.

Opponent TDD, Scrambling, and Stance

Southpaw vs orthodox matchups, cage awareness, and willingness to concede clinch change how many clean entries you'll see. Southpaws vs orthodox create different angles and often lower takedown success rates initially.

Check their defensive grappling history. Do they stuff shots cleanly or give up takedowns but scramble up fast? The second type creates way more takedown volume than the first. When you're looking at spotting hidden weaknesses, poor scrambling is gold for takedown overs.

Game Plan Likely for This Opponent

If the opponent is a submission ace off their back, some wrestlers will wrestle less, not more. If the opponent can't punch, the wrestler may wrestle constantly. If they're dangerous on the feet but have awful TDD, wrestling all night becomes a must.

Books don't adjust for these strategic considerations. They just plug in averages. You need to think about what the wrestler will actually do in this specific fight, not what they averaged across their last ten fights against completely different opponents.

Fight Length and Finish Equity

Overs die easily in quick KOs or submissions. Unders are weaker in durable, grindy matchups. Books note that context factors like short notice, altitude, and small cage skew grappling exchanges and finish rates, affecting how long you even get to land takedowns.

If you're betting takedown overs and the fight ends in 90 seconds, you lose regardless of how good your read was. Make sure you're accounting for finish probability when betting volume props like this.

Shurzy Tip: If the fight has high knockout probability, fade takedown overs entirely. You need time on the clock to rack up volume.

Simple Filter So You Only Bet the Best Spots

Takedown props are most mispriced when the wrestler is a known high-attempt guy or a fake one (wrestler label, low attempts), the opponent's TDD and scrambling creates a very clear "way over" or "way under" scenario, and the line looks like a generic average and hasn't been hammered yet.

The Three Questions

Do I know this fighter's attempt pattern by matchup? Not just averages, but actual patterns. Do they keep shooting or give up?

Does this specific opponent strongly raise or lower takedown opportunities? Bad TDD plus quick scrambles equals over. Elite TDD equals under.

Do the odds imply a takedown count that clashes with those realities? If the line is 3.5 and you think the real number is 6, that's massive edge.

Then the "takedowns landed" market is exactly the kind of niche prop where the book is still using broad strokes and you're using real context. One of the few places on a UFC card where mispricing is both common and exploitable.

Shurzy Tip: If you can confidently answer all three questions and the line looks wrong, fire with conviction. These are some of the softest props available.

Final Thoughts

Takedowns landed props get mispriced because books use templates and crude averages instead of matchup-specific analysis. Volume wrestlers vs bad scramblers create over value. One-shot wrestlers vs elite TDD create under value. Check attempt patterns, opponent scrambling, game plan incentives, and fight finish probability before betting. When the line clashes with matchup reality, you've got edge.

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