5 Long-Shot Super Bowl Bets That Aren't Crazy

1. Cincinnati Bengals (+3000)

The Bengals at +3000 are long enough to pay, but still in the "credible if things break right" tier.

This is the classic "elite QB variance plus health plus defense bounce-back" profile, and the market is pricing them behind teams like the Bears (+2500) and tied with the Cowboys (+3000), which suggests you're not paying peak public enthusiasm.

Why Bengals +3000 isn't crazy:

• Elite QB (Joe Burrow when healthy)
• Long enough to matter (+3000 pays 30-to-1)
• Priced behind Bears (+2500), tied with Cowboys
• Not paying peak public enthusiasm

If Burrow stays healthy and the defense bounces back, +3000 is real value for a team that can compete with anyone.

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2. Dallas Cowboys (+3000)

Dallas is the archetypal "public team," so seeing them at +3000 actually implies the market has already baked in skepticism.

That's exactly when a Cowboys bet becomes less crazy than usual: when the number is long enough that you're not paying for their brand, but for their upside.

If their offseason stabilizes coaching and health, +3000 is a real payout for a roster that can plausibly be top-5 on paper.

Why Cowboys +3000 isn't crazy:

• Public team at +3000 (market baked in skepticism)
• Not paying for brand, paying for upside
• Roster can plausibly be top-5 on paper
• If offseason stabilizes coaching and health, real value

Dallas at +3000 is the rare "public team at a price that doesn't punish you for betting them."

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3. Indianapolis Colts (+4000)

At +4000, the Colts are in the range where one major leap (QB development, defensive step, or a couple of smart additions) can justify the probability bump.

This is a pure "if the quarterback is real" ticket. High variance, but that's what you're buying at +4000.

Why Colts +4000 isn't crazy:

• One major leap justifies probability bump
• QB development (if Richardson takes leap)
• Defensive step or smart additions
• High variance, but that's what +4000 buys

If the quarterback is real, +4000 is massive value. If not, you lose your bet. That's the variance you're buying.

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4. Tampa Bay Buccaneers (+4000)

Tampa at +4000 gives you a franchise that's proven it can build elite defenses and play big games, even if the roster version changes.

This bet isn't saying "they're already there." It's saying their path to contender status is plausible enough that +4000 isn't insulting.

Why Buccaneers +4000 isn't crazy:

• Franchise proven to build elite defenses
• Can play big games (championship experience)
• Path to contender status plausible
• +4000 isn't insulting for proven organization

Tampa knows how to build contenders. If they build another one, +4000 is a massive payout.

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5. Pittsburgh Steelers (+8000)

This is the true "long-shot that isn't crazy" archetype: a historic franchise with a defense-first identity, priced at +8000, where a single offseason quarterback solution could collapse the odds dramatically.

+8000 is not a prediction. It's an option on competence plus one key unlock.

Why Steelers +8000 isn't crazy:

• Historic franchise (championship DNA)
• Defense-first identity (foundation is there)
• Single offseason QB solution collapses odds
• +8000 is option on competence plus one unlock

If Pittsburgh solves the quarterback position, +8000 becomes +2000 by September. That's the bet.

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Two Honorable Mentions

New York Giants (+6600): VegasInsider notes they were unusually high in early liability (and 7th in money) despite being +6600, which suggests some bettors are trying to get ahead of a potential QB and roster swing.

Cleveland Browns (+15000): As a pure chaos bet, priced so long that any credible QB stability would move them multiple tiers.

Honorable mentions breakdown:

• Giants +6600: unusually high in early money (7th), QB and roster swing potential
• Browns +15000: pure chaos bet, any QB stability moves them multiple tiers

These are riskier than the top five, but the logic is the same: price is long enough that one major change creates value.

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The Bottom Line on Long-Shot Super Bowl Bets

Don't bet five long shots because it feels diversified. Bet them because each has a specific reason the market might be underestimating their upside. Track whether their prices shorten after major offseason events (free agency, draft, schedule). Long-shot futures are less about "who wins" and more about "who is mispriced today relative to what we'll know in August." VegasInsider explicitly notes the market tends to stay stable until spring events jolt it, which is why early tickets are really bets on future information flow.