What Happens If You Only Bet Unders All Season?

Covers 2025-26 Trends: Overs 51.6%

There's also a team-level problem: totals are not one-size-fits-all. BetIQ's over and under trends since the 2025 season show wide differences by team (some teams skew heavily to overs, others heavily to unders), which means a blanket under strategy is constantly fighting team context and pricing.

Why "all unders" doesn't work:

• Covers 2025-26: overs 51.6% (147 overs vs 138 unders)
• "Bet all unders" would have lost before vig
• BetIQ: wide differences by team (not one-size-fits-all)
• Blanket strategy fights team context and pricing

Before you bet all unders, you need to understand that the market is efficient. Books aren't consistently overestimating scoring. They're pricing totals based on the best information available.

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The Math: You Would Have Lost in 2025-26

If you bet all unders in the 2025-26 season, you would have lost.

Overs hit 51.6%. Unders hit 48.4%.

That's a 3.2% edge for the overs. And that's before vig.

With standard -110 vig, you need to hit 52.4% to break even. Unders hit 48.4%.

You're not close.

Betting all unders math:

• Overs 51.6%, unders 48.4%
• 3.2% edge for overs before vig
• Need 52.4% to break even at -110 vig
• Unders at 48.4% (not close)

This is why blanket strategies don't work. The market is too efficient.

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BetIQ: Wide Differences by Team

BetIQ's over and under trends since the 2025 season show wide differences by team.

Some teams skew heavily to overs. Some teams skew heavily to unders.

If you bet all unders, you're betting unders on teams that go over 70% of the time. That's just donating money.

Team-level total trends:

• Some teams skew heavily to overs (70%+)
• Some teams skew heavily to unders (70%+)
• Betting all unders = betting unders on over teams
• Donating money on teams that go over consistently

This is the team-level problem with blanket strategies. Not all teams are the same.

Read more: NFL Betting: The Ultimate Guide for the 2025/2026 Football Season

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Totals Are Not One-Size-Fits-All

Totals are not one-size-fits-all. Each game is different.

One game has two fast-paced offenses in a dome. That's going over.

Another game has two slow-paced offenses in 20 mph wind. That's going under.

If you bet all unders, you're betting under on the dome game with two fast-paced offenses. You're going to lose.

Why totals not one-size-fits-all:

• Two fast-paced offenses in dome (going over)
• Two slow-paced offenses in wind (going under)
• Betting all unders = betting under on dome game
• Going to lose

The edge is in selectivity, not in blanket strategies.

If you're confident in your takes, run them through Gridzy.

What Works Better Than "All Unders"

What does work better than "all unders" is a rules-based under approach that respects why unders win:

Wind-driven unders (when passing efficiency and deep shots get squeezed).

Short-rest unders (when timing and explosive plays can degrade).

Matchup unders (two slow-paced teams, elite pass rush vs weak OL, red-zone inefficiency).

Rules-based under approach:

• Wind-driven unders (passing efficiency squeezed)
• Short-rest unders (timing, explosive plays degrade)
• Matchup unders (slow pace, elite rush vs weak OL, red-zone inefficiency)

These are the unders that work. Not all unders. Just the ones where you have a specific reason.

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Wind-Driven Unders: Passing Efficiency Squeezed

Wind-driven unders work when passing efficiency and deep shots get squeezed.

If there's 20 mph sustained wind, the passing game struggles. Deep shots don't work. Timing routes get disrupted.

The total might be 47.5 in normal weather. But with 20 mph wind, it should be 42.5.

If the market hasn't fully adjusted, you can bet the under at 45.5 and get value.

Wind-driven unders:

• 20 mph sustained wind (passing game struggles)
• Deep shots don't work, timing routes disrupted
• Total should be 42.5, market at 45.5
• Bet under, get value

This is a specific reason to bet the under. Not just "unders are good."

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Short-Rest Unders: Timing and Explosive Plays Degrade

Short-rest unders work when timing and explosive plays can degrade.

Thursday Night Football is the classic example. Teams have three days to prepare instead of seven.

Timing routes aren't as crisp. Explosive plays degrade. The game gets sloppy.

Sloppy games tend to go under.

Short-rest unders:

• Thursday Night Football (three days to prepare)
• Timing routes not crisp, explosive plays degrade
• Game gets sloppy
• Sloppy games tend to go under

But again, this only works if the market hasn't fully priced it in. If the Thursday total has already been hammered down from 47.5 to 42.5, you're late.

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Matchup Unders: Slow Pace, Elite Rush vs Weak OL

Matchup unders work when you have two slow-paced teams, elite pass rush vs weak OL, or red-zone inefficiency.

If both teams run the ball 60% of the time, the clock keeps running. Fewer possessions means fewer points.

If one team has an elite pass rush and the other team has a weak offensive line, the quarterback is under constant pressure. That kills scoring.

If both teams struggle in the red zone, they're settling for field goals instead of touchdowns.

Matchup unders:

• Two slow-paced teams (clock keeps running)
• Elite pass rush vs weak O-line (QB under pressure)
• Red-zone inefficiency (field goals, not touchdowns)

These are all specific reasons to bet the under. Not just "unders are good."

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Pace Plus Injury Example

Pace plus injury: two slow teams plus key skill player out.

Both teams run the ball 60% of the time. That's one reason to bet the under.

One team just lost their best receiver to injury. Now they're even more run-heavy. That's a second reason.

Two independent reasons the game is going under.

Pace plus injury:

• Two slow teams (run ball 60% of time)
• Best receiver out (even more run-heavy)
• Two independent reasons game going under
• Bet with confidence

This is the discipline. Wait for two independent reasons. Don't bet all unders.

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The Bottom Line on Betting Unders All Season

Betting all unders would have lost in 2025-26 (Covers: overs 51.6%, 147 overs vs 138 unders). What works better: rules-based approach with wind-driven unders, short-rest unders, matchup unders. Simple improvement: bet selective unders with two independent reasons (weather plus matchup, pace plus injury), pass when only one reason.

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