The Next Breakout Coach Who Could Flip a Franchise

Klint Kubiak to Las Vegas: Coherent Offensive Tree

One concrete example: Fox Sports' coaching tracker reported the Las Vegas Raiders hired Seahawks offensive coordinator Klint Kubiak as head coach, and also reported Las Vegas hiring Seahawks QBs coach Andrew Janocko as OC and Rob Leonard as DC.

That matters because it signals an organizational choice to import a coherent offensive tree and quarterback-development emphasis, rather than hiring a "CEO coach" and hoping the coordinators figure it out later.

Why Kubiak hire matters:

• Las Vegas hired Seahawks OC Klint Kubiak as head coach
• Also hired Seahawks QBs coach Andrew Janocko as OC
• Rob Leonard as DC
• Coherent offensive tree, QB development emphasis

The Raiders didn't just hire a head coach. They hired an offensive system and a quarterback development plan.

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Importing a Coherent Offensive Tree

The key phrase is "coherent offensive tree."

When a team hires a head coach and his coordinators from the same system, you get continuity. The offensive coordinator already knows what the head coach wants. The quarterbacks coach already knows how to teach it.

That's different from hiring a head coach and letting him piece together a staff from different backgrounds.

Coherent offensive tree advantages:

• OC already knows what HC wants
• QBs coach already knows how to teach it
• Continuity from day one
• Different from piecing together staff from different backgrounds

The Raiders are importing the Seahawks offensive system. That system has worked in Seattle. Now they're betting it works in Las Vegas.

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NFL.com's Young Coaching Candidates to Know

If you want a broader candidate pool for "next breakout," NFL.com's list of young coaching candidates to know includes names such as Joe Brady, Ejiro Evero, and Kelvin Sheppard, exactly the type of coordinators who become breakout head coaches if they land with the right QB and front office alignment.

The edge for bettors (and content) isn't pretending you can forecast every schematic detail in February. It's identifying where structure supports a leap.

Young coaching candidates:

• NFL.com list: Joe Brady, Ejiro Evero, Kelvin Sheppard
• Coordinators who become breakout HCs with right QB
• Edge is identifying structure that supports leap
• Not forecasting every schematic detail

Joe Brady is an offensive coordinator who's had success developing quarterbacks. Ejiro Evero is a defensive coordinator who's built elite defenses. Kelvin Sheppard is a rising defensive mind.

These are the types of coordinators who become breakout head coaches when they land in the right situation.

Read more: NFL Betting: The Ultimate Guide for the 2025/2026 Football Season

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Where Structure Supports a Leap

New coach plus upgraded QB situation (or clear QB development plan).

Staff continuity and role clarity (play-caller is defined, not TBD).

A roster that doesn't require a miracle to become average in the trenches.

Structure that supports coaching leap:

• New coach plus upgraded QB (or clear development plan)
• Staff continuity, role clarity (play-caller defined)
• Roster doesn't need miracle to be average in trenches

These are the three things that matter most when evaluating a coaching change.

If a team hires a great coach but has no quarterback, the coach can't flip the franchise. If a team hires a great coach but the staff is a mess, the coach can't flip the franchise. If a team hires a great coach but the roster is terrible, the coach can't flip the franchise.

You need all three.

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New Coach Plus Upgraded QB Situation

The first thing: new coach plus upgraded QB situation (or clear QB development plan).

If the Raiders hire Klint Kubiak and they also upgrade at quarterback, that's a double boost. If they hire Kubiak and stick with the same bad quarterback, the offense is still limited.

But if Kubiak has a clear plan to develop the quarterback they have, that can work too.

QB situation matters for coaching changes:

• New coach plus upgraded QB (double boost)
• Or new coach plus clear QB development plan
• Bad QB limits offense even with great coach
• Development plan can work if coach has track record

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Staff Continuity and Role Clarity

The second thing: staff continuity and role clarity (play-caller is defined, not TBD).

If the head coach is calling plays, you know who's calling plays. If the offensive coordinator is calling plays, you know who's calling plays.

But if the head coach says "we'll figure it out in training camp," that's a red flag. Role clarity matters.

The Raiders have role clarity. Kubiak is the head coach. Janocko is the OC and presumably calling plays. Leonard is the DC.

Staff continuity and role clarity:

• Play-caller defined, not TBD
• HC or OC calling plays (you know who)
• "Figure it out in training camp" is red flag
• Raiders have clarity: Kubiak HC, Janocko OC, Leonard DC

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A Roster That Doesn't Need a Miracle

The third thing: a roster that doesn't require a miracle to become average in the trenches.

If the offensive line is terrible and the defensive line is terrible, even the best coach can't flip the franchise in Year 1.

But if the roster has some pieces in place, the coach can build on that foundation.

The Raiders have some pieces. They're not starting from zero.

Roster foundation matters:

• Doesn't need miracle to be average in trenches
• Terrible O-line and D-line kills Year 1
• Some pieces in place = build on foundation
• Raiders have some pieces, not starting from zero

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How You Translate That Into Bets

Early-season spreads: be ready to back the breakout coach when the market is still pricing last year's incompetence into the number.

Win totals: the best "coach flip" overs usually come when the total is modest and the schedule isn't brutal early (so belief can compound).

Futures: rarely worth it unless the team is priced like a bottom feeder and you believe the coach raises the floor immediately.

How to bet coaching changes:

• Early spreads: back breakout coach when market prices last year
• Win totals: overs when total modest, schedule not brutal early
• Futures: rarely worth unless team priced bottom feeder

The best time to bet a coaching change is early in the season when the market hasn't fully adjusted yet.

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Early-Season Spreads: Market Prices Last Year

Be ready to back the breakout coach when the market is still pricing last year's incompetence into the number.

If the Raiders were terrible last year and the market is still treating them like they're terrible, but you believe Kubiak raises the floor, you can get value on Raiders spreads early in the season.

By Week 8, the market will have adjusted. But in Weeks 1 through 4, you might still be getting Raiders +7.5 when they should be +3.5.

Early-season spread value:

• Market prices last year's incompetence
• You believe coach raises floor
• Get Raiders +7.5 when should be +3.5
• By Week 8 market adjusts, value gone

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Win Totals: Modest Total, Not Brutal Schedule Early

The best "coach flip" overs usually come when the total is modest and the schedule isn't brutal early (so belief can compound).

If the Raiders win total is 6.5 and they have a soft first four games, they could start 3-1 or 4-0. Suddenly everyone believes in them. The team believes in itself.

That belief compounds. They win a couple close games because they believe. They cover spreads because the market hasn't caught up yet.

Win total over value:

• Total is modest (6.5 wins)
• Schedule not brutal early (soft first four games)
• Start 3-1 or 4-0, belief compounds
• Win close games, cover spreads

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The Bottom Line on Breakout Coaches

Breakout coach flips franchise by raising weekly floor. Las Vegas hired Klint Kubiak (Seahawks OC), imported coherent offensive tree and QB development. Bet early spreads when market prices last year, win totals when modest and schedule not brutal early.

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