Best Picks for Week 6 of the 2025-26 NFL Season

Best Moneyline Pick: Buffalo Bills (+120) vs. Kansas City Chiefs

Buffalo heads into Kansas City as an underdog at +120 on most online sports betting apps. That translates to about a 45% implied win probability. But the Bills have won three of their last four against the Chiefs, including a road victory in 2024.

Josh Allen is averaging 285 passing yards per game this season, while Kansas City’s defense is allowing nearly 250 passing yards per game. Stefon Diggs has also been dominant, posting four straight 100-yard outings. The Bills’ defensive front has held opponents to just 3.7 yards per rush, which could limit Kansas City’s ground game.

For bettors exploring online sports betting how to strategies, this is a clear example of when to play a live dog with matchup advantages.

Best Spread Pick: Detroit Lions (-3.5) vs. Minnesota Vikings

The Lions are laying -3.5 against Minnesota in Week 6, and this looks like a strong spread play. Detroit has covered in 13 of their last 18 NFL football games, one of the best marks in the league. Their offensive line has allowed the fewest sacks in the NFL, giving Jared Goff plenty of time to find Amon-Ra St. Brown.

Minnesota has struggled on defense, ranking bottom five in yards allowed per play. They’re also just 2-8 against the spread in their last 10 divisional matchups. Detroit’s balanced attack — averaging 130 rushing yards and 260 passing yards per game — puts them in position to control tempo.

For NFL betting fans checking NFL lines this week, the Lions -3.5 is a sharp way to attack.

Best Totals: Miami Dolphins at New York Jets – Over 48.5

Miami’s offense continues to put up big numbers, averaging 31 points per game through the first five weeks. Tua Tagovailoa is spreading the ball around, while Tyreek Hill leads the league in explosive plays. On the other side, the Jets’ defense has slipped, allowing 26 points per game and struggling against vertical passing attacks.

Last season, these teams combined for 61 points in their Week 5 matchup. Weather looks clear in New Jersey, removing one of the only potential obstacles for a shootout. The over under at 48.5 feels like value given both teams’ current trends.

For bettors looking at online sports betting USA markets, the over is one of the best totals plays in Week 6.

Our Parlay Picks

Safer Parlay: Bills +3, Lions -3.5, Dolphins-Jets Over 48.5

This three-leg parlay mixes a spread, a total, and a small underdog. Buffalo +3 gives cushion in case the Chiefs squeak out a win. Detroit -3.5 relies on one of the most consistent cover teams in the league. Adding Miami-New York over 48.5 ties in an offensive matchup with proven scoring history. Together, this ticket pays around +600 odds on most online sports betting websites.

Riskier Parlay: Bills Moneyline, Bears Moneyline, Jets Moneyline

If you’re chasing bigger value, this bold parlay offers just that. Buffalo outright over Kansas City anchors the card. Chicago is a live dog against the Commanders, with their defense forcing turnovers at a top-five rate. The Jets, while risky, could surprise Miami at home if they control time of possession.

This three-leg underdog parlay pays closer to +1400 odds, depending on the book. It’s a swing-for-the-fences play, but that’s what makes NFL parlay bets exciting in online sports betting legal markets.

Final Whistle

NFL Week 6 is loaded with games that matter for playoff positioning, and the board is showing clear value spots. Buffalo’s moneyline, Detroit’s ability to cover, and a high-scoring AFC East matchup all headline our picks. As always, shop betting odds across multiple online sports betting apps to find the best number.

NFL scores can swing fast, so stay sharp with live NFL updates and always bet within your means. The best strategy is balancing safer plays with a few bold swings when the matchup justifies it.

Check out our full betting toolset to start spotting profitable lines.