How to Spot Trends in Online Betting in the NFL

What Are NFL Betting Trends and Why Do They Matter?

NFL betting trends track how teams perform against the spread, on totals, or in specific spots—like as underdogs, in primetime, or coming off a loss. These patterns help you see which bets are just noise and which ones are backed by real receipts.

You’ll see trends like:

• "The Giants are 10-2 ATS as road dogs in their last 12."
  
  
• "The Chiefs have hit the over in 6 of their last 7 at home."
  
  

Translation? This is real info you can use before the line moves.

Trends don’t predict the future, but they show you what direction the wind’s blowing. And if you combine them with NFL odds and predictions, you're already one step ahead.

How to Read NFL Betting Odds and Spreads

Before you spot trends, you gotta understand the playground. NFL betting odds in Vegas set the tone. The point spread shows how much a team is expected to win (or lose) by. The over under sets the total score line.

Say the Bills are -6.5 against the Jets. If you take the Bills, they need to win by 7 or more to cover the spread. Taking the Jets means you’re hoping they lose by less than 6—or win straight up.

Now toss in the over/under at 43.5. If both teams combine for 44+, the over cashes. Otherwise, it’s an under day.

Knowing how NFL betting spreads work makes trends actually useful. You’re not just betting on who wins—you’re betting on how they win.

Spotting Trends Like a Pro (Without Being One)

Here’s where it gets good. Want to start spotting real NFL betting trends? Start tracking:

1. Team ATS Records

Against-the-spread records matter more than straight-up wins. A team can be 5–10 and still be a spread darling. That’s money.

2. Totals Trends

Some teams just live for shootouts. Others bring the defense. Spot the teams that are cashing overs or locking down unders every week.

3. Public Betting Percentages

NFL betting public data shows which side everyone’s piling onto. If 80% of the public loves one team, oddsmakers know—and often shade the line. Going the other way can be sneaky sharp.

4. Situational Angles

Teams play differently on short rest, off a bye, or in the cold. Don’t overthink it, just notice patterns. Are West Coast teams trash in 1pm East games? Usually.

Use these angles and stack them with NFL betting advice from people who actually bet. (Hi, that’s us.)

Real Example: When Trends Called It

Week 9, 2024: Falcons vs. Saints
The Saints were 3-point favorites. Public was heavy on New Orleans. But the Falcons?

• 4–0 ATS as underdogs that season
  
  
• Saints had hit the under in 5 straight
  
  
• Falcons coming off a bye
  
  

We bet Atlanta +3 and the under 41. Final score? Falcons 20, Saints 17.
Trends didn’t predict the game—they framed the bet.

Best Places to Find NFL Betting Trends

We’ll save you 37 open tabs. If you want smart trends without turning into a stat zombie:

• Look at nfl betting odds by week (Shurzy has that)
  
  
• Track NFL teams ranked ATS over the season
  
  
• Use tools that show NFL betting public splits in real-time
  
  
• Follow NFL betting today updates so you’re not betting on stale info
  
  

And yeah—check out Shurzy’s own dashboard. It’s built for everyday fans, not Wall Street interns.

What About NFL Betting Props?

Glad you asked. Player props are where trends really pop. Is a QB throwing for 250+ every game? Is a WR consistently crushing his longest reception line?

These are your soft spots. If you know a TE eats against Cover 2 defenses, that’s not just a fun fact—that’s a bet. Combine nfl betting player props with team trends, and you’re building a same-game parlay your group chat will hate you for (because it cashed).

Futures, Lines, and Trends: The Long Game

If you’re betting NFL odds Vegas Super Bowl style, trends still help. Futures bets—like picking division winners or MVPs—should factor in past season trends. Some coaches start hot, others finish strong. Some teams dominate in December. Others? Dumpster fires.

Use nfl odds and lines from early in the season to find value before the public jumps in. Spotting a future trend early = juicy payout later.

Football Betting Tips You Can Actually Use

Let’s bring it home. Here’s your no-fluff checklist for spotting NFL betting trends:

• Start with the spread. Understand what it actually means.
  
  
• Track ATS and totals. Not just wins, but how teams cover.
  
  
• Fade the public when it’s too loud. Sneaky wins live here.
  
  
• Layer in the context. Bye weeks, weather, home/away.
  
  
• Use tools, not spreadsheets. Seriously, f*ck spreadsheets.
  
  
• Don’t chase. Betting trends help you pick your spots, not bet every game.
  
  

NFL betting online doesn’t have to be complicated. You don’t need to be a spreadsheet wizard or watch every presser. You just need a sharp eye for patterns, a decent toolset, and a little guts.

Check out our full betting toolset to start spotting profitable lines.