NBA 2026 Season: Dallas Mavericks Defense Explained for Online Sports Betting

How the Mavericks Play Defense (Big Picture)

After trading Luka Dončić for Anthony Davis and drafting Cooper Flagg No. 1 overall, Dallas leaned hard into length and rim protection. On paper, a frontcourt of Flagg, Davis, and Dereck Lively II has elite defensive upside. Many preseason previews even argued the Mavericks could be an elite defense if healthy.

Reality so far:

• Defensive rating: 116-ish (middle tier)
• Offense: bottom-3 in efficiency
• Record: 3–9 with brutal stretches whenever Davis and Lively are both out

They defend with size at the rim (Lively, Davis, Moussa Cisse, Daniel Gafford), versatile forwards (Cooper Flagg, P.J. Washington, Caleb Martin, Naji Marshall), and veteran guards who can at least stay organized (D'Angelo Russell, Max Christie, Klay Thompson, Dante Exum when healthy).

For NBA sports, that means their defense can look top-10 when the full frontcourt plays, or very average when injuries hit. In sports betting today, you have to check injuries before you touch any over under or point spread betting involving Dallas.

Read more: How Betting Predictions Use Data Trends and Matchups

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Three Most Important Defensive Players (For Betting)

When you think about NBA sports betting for Dallas Mavericks, start with these three defenders. Two are currently dinged up, which is exactly why the lines look the way they do.

Anthony Davis – All-NBA anchor (currently out)

Davis is still one of the best defensive bigs in the world when he plays. He's the rim protector, switchable big, and vocal quarterback for this defense. Dallas acquired him to be the franchise cornerstone after the Luka trade.

Right now, he's out with a left calf strain, and ownership is being ultra conservative about his return after nine missed games.

Betting impact: Without Davis, the Mavs' interior defense drops and their defensive ceiling shrinks. Opponent bigs and drivers have a much easier time at the rim, which is good for overs on their points and sometimes full-game totals. When news finally breaks that he's in with no minutes limit, expect sports betting odds on totals and opponent props to move down fast.

Cooper Flagg – Rookie defensive terror

Flagg came out of Duke as an ACC All-Defensive player and a legit two-way monster, praised by veterans for his ability to guard stars like Kevin Durant and Jimmy Butler.

His defense is built on weak-side rim protection and verticality, smart rotations and anticipation, and real switch ability at 6-foot-9 with length.

From an online sports betting angle: When Flagg plays heavy minutes, he shrinks driving lanes and helps erase mistakes from guards. He can legitimately bother big wings, making opposing star forwards' overs a little less automatic. Blocks and stocks (steals plus blocks) props will be worth watching on the best sports betting apps once his minutes stabilize.

Dereck Lively II – Vertical rim protector

Lively is coming back from a sprained right knee after missing nine games. Dallas is 2–7 without him. He averages 8.6 points and 7.1 boards for his career, but his real value is as a lob threat and rim protector.

Betting impact: With Lively on the floor, you get more rim contests, more defensive rebounds, and fewer easy layups. When both Lively and Davis are out, this defense leans on smaller centers and gets exposed on the glass, which is great for opponent rebound props and overs.

Read more: Everything You Need to Know About NBA Prop Betting

Where the Mavericks Actually Get Stops (And Where They Don't)

Rim protection and size

When at least one of Davis or Lively is active, the Mavs look big and tough inside. Add Cooper Flagg and Gafford, and you've got a wall of length.

For basketball betting: Pure rim-runners and slashers have a tougher time scoring efficiently in those lineups. You can lean away from overs on paint-only bigs and toward jump shooters and pick-and-pop bigs.

When injuries hit, it's a different story. In the recent loss to Phoenix, they gave up 31 points off 21 turnovers and were shredded once P.J. Washington went out early, with limited help at the rim.

Perimeter defense and turnovers

Perimeter defense is okay, not elite. D'Angelo Russell, Max Christie, Klay Thompson and bench guards compete but aren't lockdown stoppers. Dallas can be forced into rotations, which open up corner threes.

On the flip side, they can create some chaos on the other end with long wings jumping passing lanes.

Betting angle: Against smart, three-heavy offenses, Mavs games lean to the over because of corner threes and breakdowns. Against sloppy teams, Dallas can force turnovers and run, which also can push totals up even if half-court defense holds.

Rebounding and second chances

Lineups with Lively, Flagg, Davis or Gafford usually hold up on the glass. Lineups without real size get crushed. In the loss to Phoenix, small lineups and injuries let the Suns tilt the possession battle and pull away.

For sports betting picks: If Dallas is undersized on a given night, opponent big-man rebounds and second-chance points overs jump out. Strong rebounding nights from Dallas support unders on the opponent team total and sometimes on the full game.

Read more: Predictions for Spreads, Totals, and Props Explained

How Mavericks Defense Shows Up In Sports Betting Lines

Right now, books see Dallas as a below-average team with average-ish defense (mid-teens in defensive rating) and a bad offense, missing key pieces: Anthony Davis, Kyrie Irving (likely out until early 2026), and sometimes Dereck Lively and P.J. Washington.

So in sports betting lines, you'll often see:

• Totals in a medium range, not ultra high, because their offense drags the pace down even when the defense is fine
• Spreads that shade against them because their offense can't close, even if the defense is doing its job

This is a perfect use case for a sports betting calculator or even basic AI models. Take the implied total from your sports betting sites or best apps, then compare it to how many points Dallas has actually been giving up lately with and without Davis/Lively.

Read more: Why Matchups Matter in Betting Predictions

Build smarter bets with confidence. Explore Shurzy's Content Lab for expert breakdowns on NBA, NFL, NHL, MLB, and beyond.

Simple Example: Using Mavs Defense In A Betting Angle

Let's say the Mavericks are at home versus a guard-heavy team. The board looks like this:

• Game total: 221.5
• Opponent team total: 112.5
• Opposing star guard points line: 27.5

Injury report says: Anthony Davis still out with the calf strain, Dereck Lively II probable after a nine-game absence, P.J. Washington questionable with a left shoulder strain.

How you might play it: With no Davis but Lively back, the rim is protected, but pick-and-roll cover might still be shaky. If the opponent star guard lives on pull-ups and threes, his points over can still be playable even if full-game overs are tricky.

You might build parlay bets like:

• Opponent star guard 25+ points
• Opponent team total over 109.5 alt line

You plug that into an app, use a sports betting calculator to check implied probability, and then layer in any sports betting promos or promotions to see if the price is worth it.

Read more: How to Use Predictions Without Blindly Following Them

Best Angles for NBA Sports Betting for Dallas Mavericks (Defense Edition)

Quick cheat sheet before you bet your next Mavs game:

Lean under (or cautious over) when:

• Lively is active and playing decent minutes
• Cooper Flagg is on the floor with another big, and the opponent relies on rim pressure
• Pace looks slow and Dallas is missing scorers like Kyrie

Be careful with unders and look to overs when:

• Anthony Davis and Lively are both out or limited
• The opponent has strong pull-up shooters and a big who crashes the glass
• Turnovers spike (like the 21-turnover loss to Phoenix), fueling easy points both ways

Prop angles:

• Opponent big-man rebounds and second-chance points overs in small Dallas lineups
• Opponent star wing unders versus a locked-in Cooper Flagg, but overs against weaker lineups
• Future blocks/steals overs for Flagg and Lively as books catch up to their defensive impact