NBA Defensive Player of the Year Prediction 2026

Who Is the Defensive Player of the Year?

Victor Wembanyama is the 2026 Defensive Player of the Year in everything but the formal announcement.

BetMGM has him at -2500 in mid-March. FoxSports had him as a massive favorite earlier at around -599, a number that has only gotten more extreme as the season progressed and his defensive numbers continued to separate him from the rest of the league. SportsBettingDime's DPOY tracker shows he opened around -160 in the summer, before his impact fully registered with the market, and quickly shortened again after a brief calf injury setback to regain and extend his lead.

The numbers behind the price are real. His rim protection numbers lead the league, his block rate is historically elite, and his on/off impact on San Antonio's defensive rating is enormous. When Wembanyama is on the floor, the Spurs are a top-three defensive team. When he's off, they're ordinary. That kind of measurable individual defensive impact is exactly what DPOY voters respond to, and no other player in the league comes close to replicating it this season.

At -2500, this is completely unbettable as a standalone wager. You're risking $2,500 to win $100. That's not investing — that's just locking money up for no meaningful return. The only scenario where this bet makes financial sense is as a parlay leg anchoring a larger multi-bet ticket.

Read more: NBA Betting Predictions Strategy

Is Chet Holmgren a Real Challenger?

Holmgren is the only name in the field worth discussing, sitting at +1000 on most books. That implies roughly a 9% win probability, which is about where a credible challenger to a prohibitive favorite should sit.

His defensive profile is legitimately impressive. Size, length, rim protection ability, and basketball IQ make him one of the better defensive bigs in the league. On any other team in any other season, he's a top-three DPOY candidate and possibly the winner. The problem is that Wembanyama exists, is healthy, and is putting up numbers that make Holmgren's strong season look ordinary by comparison.

The +1000 on Holmgren only makes sense in one scenario: Wembanyama gets injured for an extended stretch in the final weeks of the season and misses enough games that voters start questioning his candidacy. Even then, the voter inertia behind Wembanyama is strong enough that a short absence might not flip the result. It's a low-probability outcome at a price that technically implies value, but the path to winning is narrow enough that a serious position is hard to justify.

Who Else Is Listed in the DPOY Market?

Everyone outside of Wembanyama and Holmgren is sitting at 80/1 or longer, which tells you exactly how lopsided this market is.

The longer-shot names include defensive-minded players from elite defensive teams — think players from OKC, Boston, and Detroit whose team-level defensive success has given them some individual recognition. None of them have the individual impact metrics or the voter name recognition to realistically challenge for the award at this stage of the season.

These are dartboard entries, not serious bets. The DPOY market this year is a two-man race in theory and a one-man race in practice.

What Does Wembanyama's Defense Mean for Betting Spurs Games?

This is where the DPOY race becomes actually useful for your betting strategy beyond the award market itself.

Wembanyama's defensive dominance has specific implications for how you should approach San Antonio games throughout the rest of the season and in the playoffs.

• Totals betting: When Wembanyama is healthy and starting, Spurs games trend toward the under because his rim protection changes the shot selection of every opponent who drives toward the paint. Opponents take more perimeter shots, shoot lower percentages at the rim, and generate fewer easy transition opportunities. That suppresses scoring in ways the total sometimes doesn't account for.
• Opponent prop bets: Any center or power forward playing against San Antonio with a points prop deserves a meaningful discount when Wembanyama is confirmed as the starter. His individual matchup impact on opposing big men is one of the most consistent prop-betting signals in the league right now.
• Live betting: If the Spurs fall behind early in a game, Wembanyama's defensive presence means the opponent's lead is less sustainable than it would be against a typical team. Live spread value on San Antonio after a rough first quarter has shown consistent patterns because their defense tightens over time rather than deteriorating.
• Playoff series betting: In a playoff context, Wembanyama's ability to protect the rim and change opponent shot selection game-by-game makes San Antonio significantly more dangerous than their offensive metrics alone would suggest. Series prices on the Spurs that underweight their defensive identity are worth targeting.

Before placing your next wager, take a look at the Live Odds on Shurzy. Compare current lines, futures markets, and betting trends across the NHL, NBA, MLB, UFC and more.

How to Think About Unbettable Award Markets

The DPOY situation this year is actually a useful lesson in how to approach award markets where one candidate has separated completely.

When a market hits -2500 or beyond, the award itself is no longer a betting opportunity. What it becomes is a signal for related betting markets. Wembanyama's DPOY lock tells you to bet Spurs team totals toward the under, fade opposing big men on prop bets, and factor defensive dominance into any series price involving San Antonio.

The award market's job at this point is to confirm what you should already be doing with your Spurs-related bets. Use it that way rather than trying to find value in a market where the result is already decided.

Read more: What Happens If You Only Bet Underdogs for an Entire NBA Season

Looking for deeper analysis and original research? Visit the Shurzy Content Lab, where our team breaks down stats, trends, and betting insights across the biggest sports leagues.