NFL

NFL Betting: AFC Championship, New England Patriots at Denver Broncos Picks, Predictions, Best Bets, and Over Under Breakdown

Bo Nix fractured his ankle on the fourth-to-last play of overtime against the Bills. Now Jarrett Stidham, a 29-year-old career backup who didn't throw a single pass in 2025, has to face his former team in the AFC Championship. The line was Broncos -1.5 before the injury. Now it's Patriots -4.5. That's a 7-point swing because everyone knows Stidham can't play. Add in 6-14 inches of snow forecasted for Sunday, and this is going to be a bloodbath. The Patriots are going to the Super Bowl.

January 22, 2026

Quick Answer

Best bet: Patriots -4.5 (-115). Jarrett Stidham is 2-4 as starter with 8 TDs/8 INTs career. Patriots' defense held opponents to 19 combined points in 2 playoff games.

Best total play: Under 41.5 (-105). Opened 40.5, rose to 41.5. Stidham's limited passing ability forces run-heavy script. Weather forecast is 29°F high with 6-14 inches of snow.

Best player prop: Drake Maye Over 1.5 passing TDs (-140). Posted 3 TDs vs. Texans, 4 TDs vs. Bills. Broncos' secondary vulnerable without Nix's offense controlling clock.

Biggest mistake: Taking Broncos +4.5 based on home field. Bo Nix is OUT with fractured ankle. 7-point line swing from Broncos -1.5 to Patriots -5.5.

Pro tip: CBS SportsLine projects Patriots cover -5.5 in "nearly 60% of simulations." One of strongest edges of Championship weekend.

The Matchup

Here's what we're working with Sunday afternoon:

Who's Playing: No. 2 New England Patriots (14-3) @ No. 1 Denver Broncos (14-3)

When: Sunday, January 25, 2026, 3:00 PM ET

Where: Empower Field at Mile High, Denver, Colorado

Watch: CBS, Paramount+

Weather: High 29°F, low 13°F, 6-14 inches of snow forecasted

The Broncos last appeared in the AFC title game in January 2016, defeating the Patriots en route to a Super Bowl 50 victory with Peyton Manning. The Patriots last played for the conference crown in January 2019, beating Kansas City with Tom Brady leading the way.

But this year's version carries a devastating subplot. Bo Nix suffered a fractured ankle on the fourth-to-last play of overtime in Denver's 33-30 divisional win over Buffalo, ending his breakthrough playoff run. Backup Jarrett Stidham, a 29-year-old career backup with just 2 career starts for Denver, now faces his former team in the biggest game of his life.

Where the Lines Are

Here's what the books are offering:

Spread: Broncos +4.5 (-105) | Patriots -4.5 (-115)

Moneyline: Broncos +200 to +210 | Patriots -240 to -258

Total: 41.5 points (Over -115 / Under -105)

The line opened Patriots -4.5 immediately after Nix's injury, spiked to -6 overnight with heavy action on New England, then settled back to -4.5 to -5.5 depending on the book. The lookahead line before Nix's injury was Broncos -1.5. That's a stunning 7-point swing. The total opened 40.5, rose to 41.5 as some sharps anticipated scoring despite Stidham's limitations.

What the Smart Money Is Doing

Sharp money knows exactly what this means.

The lookahead line was Broncos -1.5. After Bo Nix broke his ankle, the line immediately flipped to Patriots -4.5. That's a 7-point swing in one injury. The market is telling you Nix was worth 7 points. Stidham is that bad.

Sharp money hammered the Patriots overnight and pushed the line to -6 at some books before it settled back to -4.5 to -5.5. The total opened 40.5 and rose to 41.5, but sharp money is still leaning under because Stidham can't throw.

Key trends:

Patriots 8-0 on road this season
Patriots 13-5-1 ATS (best in NFL)
CBS SportsLine: Patriots cover -5.5 in nearly 60% of simulations
Stidham is 2-4 as starter with 8 TDs/8 INTs career
Stidham did not attempt a single pass in 2025 season
Weather: 29°F high with 6-14 inches of snow
Patriots allowed 19 combined points in 2 playoff games

Breaking Down Both Teams

Let's look at what each team brings into this AFC Championship.

New England Patriots

Mike Vrabel's Patriots (14-3) have been the NFL's most dominant road team, going 8-0 away from home including playoff wins. New England survived a turnover-heavy 28-16 victory over Houston in the Divisional Round, forcing 5 turnovers while committing 3 of their own.

Offensive balance

Drake Maye threw for 3,381 yards, 27 TDs, and 9 INTs with 72.0% completion (NFL's 6th-best all-time). He's having an MVP-caliber regular season in just his 2nd year as starter. He posted 3 TDs vs. the Texans and 4 TDs vs. the Bills in the divisional round.

But he also has 6 fumbles in just 2 playoff games (tied 13th all-time). He threw for only 179 yards vs. the Texans in snow/rain conditions, which shows efficiency over volume. Fumble concerns are real: 4 fumbles vs. Texans (lost 2) with struggles in pocket awareness.

Defensive dominance

The Patriots allowed just 19 combined points in 2 playoff games (16 vs. Texans, 3 vs. Chargers in Wild Card). They forced 5 turnovers vs. the Texans (4 INTs from C.J. Stroud, 1 fumble). Their ATS record is 13-5-1 (72.2%), best in the NFL. The defense ranks top-5 in third-down stops and red-zone TD percentage.

Injuries

OUT: CB Carlton Davis (concussion in Divisional Round, did not return). Davis had 2 INTs vs. the Texans before exiting, which is a major loss in the secondary.

Questionable: WR Mack Hollins (IR, could be activated), DT Josh Farmer (IR, could return)

Will play: LB Robert Spillane (thumb), RB TreVeyon Henderson (eye poke, wore visor vs. Texans)

All other injuries from the Divisional Round were minor. The team is relatively healthy.

Road warriors

The Patriots are 8-0 on the road this season, unbeaten away from home since December 22, 2024. They have the best ATS record in the NFL (13-5-1).

Denver Broncos

Sean Payton's Broncos (14-3) survived a dramatic 33-30 overtime thriller against Buffalo, with Bo Nix throwing a rainbow touchdown to Marvin Mims Jr. with 59 seconds left in regulation before the devastating injury. Now Denver must lean entirely on its #1-ranked defense and hope Jarrett Stidham can manage the game.

Jarrett Stidham: The Reluctant Savior

Career stats are brutal. 59.4% completion, 1,422 yards, 8 TDs, 8 INTs in 6 NFL seasons. He's 2-4 as a career starter (2 starts with Raiders in 2022, 2 with Broncos in 2023).

With the Broncos: 60.6% completion, 496 yards, 2 TDs, 1 INT, 87.7 passer rating in 3 seasons. In the 2025 season, he appeared in only 1 game (garbage time vs. Cowboys Week 8) and did not attempt a pass. His last start was December 31, 2023 vs. the Chargers when he completed 62.5% with 1 TD and 0 INTs in a win.

He has the fewest starts by any AFC Championship QB ever (4 career starts).

The Stidham blueprint

He's a former Patriots 4th-round pick (2019) who spent 2 seasons in New England behind Tom Brady and Cam Newton. He struggled to earn playing time with 3 games as a rookie and 5 games in 2020 (never started).

He signed with the Raiders in 2022 and started the final 2 games after Derek Carr was benched. He went 1-1. In Week 17 vs. the 49ers, he threw 2 INTs but showed "flashes of brilliance."

Auburn pedigree: 5,952 yards, 36 TDs, 11 INTs in 2 seasons (2017-18).

Shurzy's take: The Broncos have a great defense and home-field advantage at altitude. But none of that matters when your starting QB is Jarrett Stidham, a guy who didn't throw a single pass all season. The Patriots spent two years with him and know exactly what he can't do. This is a massacre waiting to happen.

Broncos' path to victory

ESPN's Seth Walder says it's a "simple but difficult path." They need to rely on their elite OL and defense. The run game must control the clock with Javonte Williams and potentially J.K. Dobbins (eligible off IR).

The defense must dominate and force turnovers from Maye (6 fumbles in 2 playoff games). They need to protect the football because Stidham's 8 TDs and 8 INTs career means zero margin for error.

Defensive strength

Patrick Surtain II leads a top-tier secondary. Nik Bonitto and Zach Allen form an elite pass rush and can exploit the Patriots' OL struggles. The defense posted a 5-1 turnover advantage vs. the Bills (4 Allen turnovers). They have a +17 turnover differential this season (best in AFC).

Injuries

OUT: QB Bo Nix (fractured ankle, season-ending)

Questionable: RB J.K. Dobbins (IR, expected to return), WR Pat Bryant (concussion), WR Troy Franklin (hamstring), C Luke Wattenberg (shoulder)

Home record

The Broncos are 9-1 at Mile High including playoffs.

Over/Under Breakdown: Why Under 41.5 Makes Sense

The total tells you everything you need to know about Stidham.

The total opened 40.5 after Nix's injury (down from 45.5 lookahead), then rose to 41.5 as some bettors anticipated the Patriots' offense exploiting Stidham's inability to sustain drives. The under has value.

Stidham's limited passing ability

Career efficiency is replacement level. 59.4% completion with 8 TDs and 8 INTs in 6 seasons. He did not attempt a single pass in the 2025 regular season. His last meaningful action was December 2023, over 13 months ago.

The Patriots know him well. He spent 2019-2021 in the New England system. Vrabel has all the film.

Game script implications mean the Broncos must run 60%+ of plays to protect Stidham and control the clock. The Patriots will stack the box and dare Stidham to beat them through the air. Fewer possessions equals lower scoring.

Weather catastrophe

The forecast is brutal. High 29°F, low 13°F. That's brutal cold for a passing game. 6-14 inches of snow is forecasted for Sunday. Wind and precipitation make the ball slippery and reduce grip strength.

Maye's cold-weather struggles showed up vs. the Texans when he threw for only 179 yards in snow/rain. He had 4 fumbles in cold conditions (lost 2). Altitude plus cold equals increased fumble risk.

Defensive dominance

The Patriots allowed 19 combined points in 2 playoff games. The Broncos have a top-5 defense in third-down stops and red-zone TD percentage. Both teams will lean on the run game in snow, and the clock burns fast.

Projection models

CBS SportsLine projects 40 combined points, which is UNDER 41.5. Covers says "Patriots averaged only 4.0 yards/play vs. Texans, Broncos will run clock." Sporting News implies Patriots 23, Broncos 18.5 (41.5 total), exactly on the number.

Shurzy's take: When a backup QB who didn't throw a pass all season has to play in 6-14 inches of snow against a defense that allowed 19 points in two playoff games, you hammer the under. This isn't complicated.

What the Experts Are Saying

Everyone with a brain is backing the Patriots.

USA Today's Bill Speros and Jeremy Cluff both back the Patriots. CBS SportsLine says the Patriots cover -5.5 in "nearly 60% of simulations," which is one of the strongest edges of Championship weekend. Simulation models give the Patriots a 69-73% win probability per multiple sites.

Multiple experts favor Patriots -4.5 to -5.5, citing Stidham's inexperience and the Patriots' elite defense. The 7-point line swing from Broncos -1.5 to Patriots -4.5 tells you everything.

Best Bets & Picks

Spread Pick: Patriots -4.5 (-115) ⭐⭐⭐⭐⭐

CBS SportsLine says the Patriots cover -5.5 in "nearly 60% of simulations." That's one of the strongest edges of the weekend. Stidham's incompetence is documented: 8 TDs, 8 INTs career, 2-4 as starter, did not attempt a pass in 2025.

The 7-point line swing from Broncos -1.5 to Patriots -4.5 shows the market correctly adjusted. The Patriots' road dominance is real with 8-0 on the road and 13-5-1 ATS (best in NFL).

The defensive mismatch is massive. The Patriots allowed 19 combined points in the playoffs vs. Stidham's limited arsenal. Weather favors experience: Maye has 2 playoff starts, Stidham has 0. Advantage Patriots.

Expert consensus backs the Patriots. Simulation models give them a 69-73% win probability. Look, the Broncos have home field and altitude, but when your QB is Jarrett Stidham and there's 6-14 inches of snow coming, none of that matters. The Patriots are going to roll.

Recommended Bet: 4-unit MAX play at -4.5 or better, 3-unit at -5.5

Total Pick: Under 41.5 (-105) ⭐⭐⭐⭐⭐

CBS SportsLine projects 40 combined points, which is under 41.5. Stidham forces a run-heavy script with fewer possessions and clock management. Weather disaster: 29°F high with 6-14 inches of snow means the passing game is limited.

The Patriots averaged 4.0 yards/play vs. the Texans, so the offense struggled in elements. The Broncos must protect Stidham with conservative play-calling and run 60%+ of snaps. Both defenses are elite: Patriots allowed 19 combined points in playoffs, Broncos are top-5 in red-zone D.

The total opened 40.5 and rose to 41.5, but sharp money is still leaning under. Both teams are going to pound the rock in a snowstorm. Cash the under.

Recommended Bet: 3-unit MAX play at 41.5 or higher

Broncos +4.5 (FADE - Do Not Bet) ⭐

Don't get cute with the home dog. Stidham's career stats are catastrophic: 59.4% completion, 8 TDs, 8 INTs, 2-4 as starter. The Patriots know him because he spent 2019-2021 in New England. Vrabel has the full scouting report.

Stidham has no playoff experience with 0 career playoff starts while Maye has 2. The Patriots' defense will stack the box and force Stidham to beat them. He can't. Weather negates home field because 6-14 inches of snow means crowd noise is irrelevant.

Recommended Bet: AVOID Broncos +4.5. Patriots -4.5 is the play.

Player Props: Best Bets

These are the props with real value in this lopsided matchup.

Drake Maye Over 1.5 Passing TDs (-140) ⭐⭐⭐⭐

Maye posted 3 TDs vs. the Texans and 4 TDs vs. the Bills in the playoffs. The Broncos' secondary is vulnerable without Nix's offense controlling the clock. Stidham's 3-and-outs give the Patriots extra possessions and short fields.

Carlton Davis is OUT, so the Patriots' WRs have favorable matchups. The line is set at 1.5 TDs, and he cleared it in both playoff games.

Odds: -140

Jarrett Stidham Under 195.5 Passing Yards (-115) ⭐⭐⭐⭐⭐

Stidham has 496 career yards in 3 seasons with the Broncos (165 YPG in 2 starts). He did not attempt a pass in the 2025 season. The Broncos will run 60%+ of plays to protect him.

Weather: 6-14 inches of snow limits the passing game. The Patriots' defense allowed just 179 yards to Maye vs. the Texans in elements.

Shurzy's take: This is free money. Stidham hasn't thrown a pass all year. There's going to be 6-14 inches of snow. The Broncos are going to run the ball 40 times. Hammer this under.

Odds: -115

Javonte Williams Over 59.5 Rushing Yards (-115) ⭐⭐⭐⭐

The Broncos must lean on the run game with Stidham at QB. J.K. Dobbins is eligible to return from IR, which creates a 1-2 punch. The Patriots' run defense is vulnerable and allowed 4.5 YPC to the Texans.

Game script favors the Broncos running 30+ times to control the clock.

Odds: -115

How the Patriots Win This Game

New England's path to victory is simple: don't turn the ball over and let the defense dominate.

Drake Maye needs to throw for 215 yards and 2 TDs while avoiding turnovers in snowy conditions. He had 4 fumbles vs. the Texans, so ball security is critical. The defense needs to force 3 turnovers, including a pick-six from Stidham in the 3Q.

Stack the box and dare Stidham to beat you through the air. He can't. The Patriots know his limitations from his time in New England. Make him prove he can throw, and when he can't, take over the game.

The Broncos' Best Shot

Denver's best shot is to lean on Javonte Williams for 78+ yards and control the clock. Keep Maye off the field. The defense needs to force turnovers from Maye (6 fumbles in 2 playoff games).

Stidham needs to complete just 15-of-31 passes for 142 yards, 0 TDs, and avoid costly INTs. That's the floor for survival. But realistically, that's not enough to beat the Patriots on the road in a snowstorm.

Shurzy's bottom line: The Broncos' best shot is hoping for a miracle. Stidham is what he is: a career backup who couldn't beat out Cam Newton in 2020. The Patriots know his every weakness. Add in 6-14 inches of snow, and this is over before it starts.

Final Prediction

Score: Patriots 24, Broncos 13

ATS Winner: Patriots -4.5 ✓

Total: Under 41.5 ✓

Drake Maye throws for 215 yards and 2 TDs, avoiding turnovers in snowy conditions. Jarrett Stidham completes just 15-of-31 passes for 142 yards, 0 TDs, and 1 INT. The Patriots' defense forces 3 turnovers, including a pick-six from Stidham in the 3Q.

Javonte Williams rushes for 78 yards but can't overcome Stidham's ineptitude. The Patriots cover -4.5 comfortably and advance to Super Bowl LX, where they'll face the Seattle Seahawks. Both teams stay well under 41.5 in a defensive, snow-shortened grind.

Confidence levels:

Patriots -4.5: ⭐⭐⭐⭐⭐ (Extremely high confidence)
Under 41.5: ⭐⭐⭐⭐⭐ (Extremely high confidence)
Patriots ML -250: ⭐⭐⭐⭐⭐ (Certainty, but poor value)

This is the easiest bet of Championship weekend. The line moved 7 points from Broncos -1.5 to Patriots -4.5 after Bo Nix broke his ankle. CBS SportsLine says the Patriots cover -5.5 in nearly 60% of simulations. Jarrett Stidham didn't throw a pass all season. 6-14 inches of snow is coming. Load up on Patriots -4.5, hammer Under 41.5, and focus on Jarrett Stidham Under 195.5 passing yards as your best player prop.