NFL Betting: NFC Championship, Los Angeles Rams at Seattle Seahawks Picks, Predictions, Best Bets, and Over Under Breakdown

Quick Answer

Best bet: Seahawks -2.5 (-115). Seattle has 57% win probability per simulations, they're home where they're 8-1, and the Rams lost Zach Charbonnet to a torn ACL.

Best total play: Under 47.5 (-105). Opened 47.5, slight lean under. Charbonnet OUT forces run-heavy script, Sam Darnold is managing an oblique injury.

Best player prop: Kenneth Walker III Over 79.5 rushing yards (-115). Charbonnet is OUT, Walker posted 116 yards and 3 TDs vs. 49ers, Rams allowed 124 rush yards in Week 16.

Biggest mistake: Overvaluing Rams' championship experience. Stafford is 1-9 in cold/adverse weather, finger injury lingers, Seattle's defense is #1 in NFL.

Pro tip: These teams split the regular season 1-1, each winning at home by 2 points (21-19, 38-37 OT). The third meeting will likely follow the same script.

Read more: NFL Betting: The Ultimate Guide for the 2025/2026 Football Season

The Matchup

Here's what we're working with Sunday night:

Who's Playing: No. 5 Los Angeles Rams (13-6) @ No. 1 Seattle Seahawks (15-3)

When: Sunday, January 25, 2026, 6:30 PM ET

Where: Lumen Field, Seattle, Washington

Watch: FOX

Weather: 43°F, cloudy, no rain, minimal wind

This NFC Championship marks the first conference title game at Lumen Field since January 18, 2015, when Seattle demolished Green Bay 28-22 in overtime. The NFC West rivals split their regular-season meetings in thrilling fashion.

The Rams won 21-19 in Week 11 despite Sam Darnold throwing 4 interceptions. Then Seattle roared back with a dramatic 38-37 overtime victory in Week 16 after trailing by 16 points with 10 minutes left. This is rubber match time.

Where the Lines Are

Here's what the books are offering:

Spread: Rams +2.5 (-105) | Seahawks -2.5 (-115)

Moneyline: Rams +130 to +134 | Seahawks -155 to -160

Total: 47.5 points (Over -115 / Under -105)

The line opened Seahawks -1.5, quickly bet to -2.5 with sharp action recognizing Seattle's home edge and injury advantages. The total opened 47.5 and has remained stable, with a slight lean toward the under given Charbonnet's absence.

What the Smart Money Is Doing

Sharp money moved this line from Seahawks -1.5 to -2.5. That's a full point toward the home favorite, which tells you the Charbonnet injury matters. The Rams are a championship-caliber team, but losing your RB2 in the championship game is brutal.

The total opened at 47.5 and hasn't moved much, but there's a slight lean toward the under at -105 compared to over at -115. That's sharp money expecting a run-heavy game script with Charbonnet out.

Key trends:

• Seahawks 8-1 at home this season
• Rams 5-4 on the road
• Seahawks 57% win probability per CBS SportsLine
• Charbonnet OUT (torn ACL) — 730 rush yards, 12 TDs this season
• Darnold managing oblique injury (non-throwing side)
• Stafford 1-9 in cold/adverse weather, finger injury lingers
• Teams split 1-1 in regular season, each winning at home

Breaking Down Both Teams

Let's break down what each team brings to this heavyweight matchup.

Los Angeles Rams

Sean McVay's Rams (13-6) survived a frozen hellscape in Chicago, winning 20-17 in overtime at Soldier Field in 19°F weather with 45% snow chance. Matthew Stafford threw for 0 TDs in his first game this season without a touchdown pass, relying on Kyren Williams' two rushing TDs and Harrison Mevis' 42-yard OT field goal.

Offensive firepower

Matthew Stafford threw for 4,707 yards (NFL-best), 46 TDs, and 8 INTs. He's the MVP favorite at -450 odds. He has a sprained index finger on his throwing hand suffered vs. the Panthers and says it's "great," but you know cold weather is going to affect that grip.

His cold-weather struggles are documented: 1-9 record in cold/adverse weather, 3-3 in just cold (32°F or lower). Stafford threw 3 TDs and 5 INTs in three career games at Soldier Field in cold weather. The guy doesn't do well when it's not sunny in LA.

Puka Nacua has 1,533 scrimmage yards this season as the primary deep threat. Cooper Kupp has 879 yards as a reliable veteran slot receiver. Kyren Williams has 1,533 scrimmage yards, scored both TDs vs. the Bears, and is seeking his 5th straight playoff game with 70+ scrimmage yards.

Key regular-season matchups

Week 11 at LA: The Rams won 21-19 despite Darnold throwing 4 INTs. Jason Myers missed a 61-yard FG at the buzzer.

Week 16 at Seattle: The Seahawks won 38-37 in OT after trailing 30-14 with 10 minutes left. They put up 481 yards and 37 points at Lumen Field.

Shurzy's take: The Rams put up 481 yards in Seattle and still lost. That tells you everything about their ability to close games on the road. They can move the ball, but when it matters most, they fold.

Injuries

OUT: CB Ahkello Witherspoon (shoulder), OT Rob Havenstein (ankle/IR)

Questionable: CB Emmanuel Forbes Jr. (shoulder), LB Byron Young (knee)

Championship experience

The Rams won their last 4 NFC Championship games dating to the St. Louis era, including their Super Bowl LVI victory. Stafford and McVay "have been here before" with playoff pedigree vs. Darnold's inexperience.

Seattle Seahawks

Mike Macdonald's Seahawks (15-3) demolished San Francisco 41-6 in the Divisional Round, starting with Rashid Shaheed's opening kickoff return TD and never trailing. Seattle's defense held the 49ers to just 6 points while Kenneth Walker III posted 116 yards and 3 TDs.

Defensive dominance

Seattle has the #1 scoring defense in the NFL (17.2 PPG allowed), the fewest points in the league. They held the 49ers to 6 points in the Divisional Round and the Bears to 17 in the regular season. They won their last 3 NFC Championship games (2013, 2014, 2015 seasons).

Home-field advantage is massive. They're 8-1 at Lumen Field this season. "Having this game at home means everything," says season ticket holder Ray Luevanos.

Offensive balance

Sam Darnold threw for 4,048 yards, 25 TDs, and 14 INTs (67.7% completion). He suffered an oblique injury Thursday before the Divisional Round on his left (non-throwing) side. Darnold admitted "Yeah, absolutely" when asked if he'll play through the injury the rest of the playoffs.

He threw for only 124 yards in the Divisional Round, but he didn't need to do more. Jaxon Smith-Njigba led the NFL with 1,793 receiving yards (119 catches, 10 TDs). Kenneth Walker III has 1,027 rush yards with 116 yards and 3 TDs vs. the 49ers. He must carry the load now.

Critical injury

Zach Charbonnet is OUT with a torn ACL suffered in the Divisional Round. He needs season-ending surgery. Charbonnet had 730 rush yards and 12 TDs this season, which is a major loss in short-yardage and goal-line situations.

Week 16 heroics: Charbonnet scored the opening TD and made a heads-up play on a 2-point conversion that tied the game 30-30 vs. the Rams. Without Charbonnet's play in the OT drive, Seattle might not have won the division or earned the #1 seed.

Backup RBs

Cam Akers (practice squad, won Super Bowl LVI with the Rams), Velus Jones Jr. (practice squad), and George Holani (IR with hamstring since Week 12, eligible to return).

Other injuries

Questionable: LT Charles Cross (foot, previously hamstring/knee — "lower body all beat up")

Sam Darnold (oblique) will play but is managing the injury all playoffs.

Over/Under Breakdown: Why Under 47.5 Has Value

The total hasn't moved much, but sharp money is leaning under. Let me show you why.

The total opened at 47.5 and hasn't moved significantly, with a slight lean toward the under (-105) compared to over (-115). The under makes sense here.

Injury-driven game script

Charbonnet's absence forces run-heavy Seattle. His torn ACL removes Seattle's short-yardage hammer and goal-line specialist. Walker must now carry 19+ carries instead of sharing the load. Macdonald will lean on the run game.

Darnold's oblique injury (non-throwing side) limits his mobility and forces a conservative approach. Seattle threw only 17 passes in their 41-6 Divisional win. They didn't need Darnold to do much.

The Rams' conservative approach in elements matters too. Stafford's sprained finger plus Seattle's 43°F weather equals grip concerns. The Rams scored only 20 points in OT vs. the Bears and struggled in cold Chicago weather. Stafford threw 0 TDs vs. the Bears (first time all season) and relied on Williams' rushing.

Historical H2H trends

Previous two meetings tell the story. Week 11 had 40 total points (21-19 Rams win) and closed at 48.5, staying UNDER. Week 16 had 75 points (38-37 OT Seahawks win) and closed at 41.5, going OVER.

Key context: Week 16's 75 points came in overtime with both teams going for 2-point conversions instead of PATs. The Rams scored 37 points at Lumen Field with 481 yards, but that was WITH Charbonnet healthy. The average of two games is 57.5 points, but Week 16 was a massive outlier.

Shurzy's take: Don't get fooled by that Week 16 shootout. That game went to OT and had weird 2-point conversions everywhere. The real number to watch is Week 11's 40 points. That's what happens when these defenses are locked in.

Defensive excellence

The Seahawks allow 17.2 PPG (1st in NFL) and held the 49ers to 6 points. The Rams allow 20.4 PPG (10th in NFL) and limited the Bears to 17 points. Both defenses travel well. The Rams' D held up in Chicago's brutal conditions.

Projection models

Sporting News projects Seahawks 23, Rams 20 (43 total), which is UNDER 47.5. Implied point totals are Seahawks 25, Rams 22.5 (47.5 total), exactly on the number. CBS SportsLine's model favors the under given Charbonnet's injury and defensive strengths.

With Charbonnet OUT forcing Seattle's run-heavy attack, Darnold managing an oblique injury, and Stafford's finger limiting deep shots in 43°F weather, the under has clear value.

What the Experts Are Saying

The experts are lining up behind Seattle, and for good reason.

USA Today's Bill Speros backs the Seahawks and says "Lumen Field is anything but neutral." Sporting News projects Seahawks 23, Rams 20 (43 total). CBS SportsLine gives the Seahawks a 57% win probability with the Rams at 43%.

Multiple experts favor Seahawks -2.5, citing home edge, defensive dominance, and Stafford's cold-weather struggles. The Charbonnet injury is the wild card that tips this toward a run-heavy, lower-scoring game.

Shurzy's take: When Vegas opens a line at -1.5 and sharp money immediately moves it to -2.5, that's not an accident. The books know something. Follow the smart money here.

Best Bets & Picks

Spread Pick: Seahawks -2.5 (-115) ⭐⭐⭐⭐⭐

The Seahawks are 8-1 at Lumen Field while the Rams are 5-4 on the road. Win probability favors Seattle at 57% per CBS SportsLine, Rams 43%. Simulation models show 45.4% Rams win probability per other sites, so the Seahawks are undervalued at -2.5.

The injury edge matters. Charbonnet's loss hurts, but Walker proved he can carry the load (116 yards, 3 TDs). The Rams' injuries hurt more: Havenstein OUT at OT, Witherspoon OUT at CB. Depth is tested.

Stafford's weather history is brutal: 1-9 in cold/adverse weather with the finger injury lingering. Lumen Field magic is real. This is the first NFC Championship at home since 2015. The crowd will be electric.

The Rams' rest disadvantage matters. LA played Sunday in OT while Seattle played Saturday. That's one less day of rest. Championship experience caveat: The Rams won their last 4 NFC titles, but the Seahawks won their last 3 at home.

Look, the Rams have the experience, but they're banged up and traveling to the toughest road environment in football. The Seahawks are healthier, rested, and at home. Take the home favorite.

Recommended Bet: 3-unit MAX play at -2.5 or better

Total Pick: Under 47.5 (-105) ⭐⭐⭐⭐

Charbonnet being OUT forces Seattle run-heavy with Walker and limits red-zone efficiency. Darnold's oblique injury means he's managing it the rest of the playoffs. He threw only 124 yards vs. the 49ers.

Stafford's finger plus 43°F weather isn't brutal, but the finger injury affects grip. Both defenses are elite: Seahawks #1 scoring defense (17.2 PPG), Rams 10th (20.4 PPG).

Sporting News projects 43 total points (Seahawks 23, Rams 20). Week 11 precedent shows the first meeting had 40 points and stayed under 48.5. There's a slight market lean with the under priced -105 and over priced -115. That's sharp under action.

Championship games often grind out possessions with fewer explosive plays. Both teams are going to try to control the clock and keep it on the ground. Cash the under.

Recommended Bet: 2-unit play at 47.5 or higher

Moneyline Value: Rams ML +130 (0.5-Unit Value Sprinkle) ⭐⭐⭐

CBS SportsLine says the Rams have 43-45% win probability at +130 to +134 odds (implied 43.5%). Championship experience matters: Stafford and McVay "have been here before" while Darnold is 0-1 in playoffs before the Divisional win.

Week 16 dominance shows the Rams gained 481 yards at Lumen Field and scored 37 points. Stafford is the MVP favorite at -450 odds and won't be rattled by the big stage. H2H stats are nearly identical: Rams 830 yards/58 points, Seahawks 829 yards/57 points in two meetings.

At +130 to +134 odds, value exists for a small sprinkle if you believe championship experience matters.

Recommended Bet: 0.5-unit lottery ticket at +130 or better

Player Props: Best Bets

These are the props that offer real value in this matchup.

Kenneth Walker III Over 79.5 Rushing Yards (-115) ⭐⭐⭐⭐⭐

Walker posted 116 yards and 3 TDs vs. the 49ers without Charbonnet. He must now carry the full load with Charbonnet OUT for the playoffs. He posted 100 yards in the Week 16 win vs. the Rams and 97 yards vs. the 49ers in the regular-season finale.

The Rams allowed 124 rushing yards in the Week 16 meeting at Lumen Field. It's a contract year for Walker, so he's playing for his next deal and will get 20+ touches. DFS experts have Walker as the top RB play in the NFC Championship given the workload.

The line is set at 79.5 yards. He cleared it in 2 of his last 3 games and should exceed it with Charbonnet OUT.

Shurzy's take: This is the most obvious prop on the board. Charbonnet is done for the season. Walker is getting 23+ touches in a conference championship game. He's going to eat. Hammer this.

Odds: -115

Jaxon Smith-Njigba Over 89.5 Receiving Yards (-115) ⭐⭐⭐⭐

Smith-Njigba led the NFL with 1,793 receiving yards (119 catches, 10 TDs). He averages 105.5 receiving YPG this season. He's Darnold's security blanket and will get targeted heavily if the Rams load the box vs. Walker.

He posted a 9-124-0 line on 13 targets vs. the 49ers in Week 1 of this season. The Rams' secondary lost Ahkello Witherspoon (shoulder/IR). Emmanuel Forbes Jr. (shoulder) is questionable, so secondary depth is thin.

Odds: -115

Kyren Williams Under 65.5 Rushing Yards (-115) ⭐⭐⭐

The Seahawks have the #1 scoring defense and allow the fewest points in the NFL. The Rams will abandon the run if down 2 scores. Stafford will throw to catch up.

In the Week 16 meeting, the Rams gained 124 team rushing yards but in a high-scoring OT game. Game script favors the Seahawks controlling the clock with Walker, limiting the Rams' offensive possessions.

Williams is seeking his 5th straight playoff game with 70+ scrimmage yards, but receiving yards count toward that.

Odds: -115

Sam Darnold Under 230.5 Passing Yards (-115) ⭐⭐⭐⭐

Darnold threw for only 124 yards in the Divisional Round vs. the 49ers. His oblique injury on the non-throwing side limits mobility and forces a conservative approach. Without Charbonnet, Seattle will lean on Walker with a run-heavy game script.

Macdonald said "Darnold is good, didn't exacerbate injury," but he's managing it all playoffs. In the Week 11 loss to the Rams, Darnold threw 4 INTs. He'll play cautious to avoid turnovers.

The line is set at 230.5 yards. He cleared it in 0 of his last 2 games. The run game will dominate.

Odds: -115

How the Seahawks Win This Game

Seattle's blueprint for victory is pretty straightforward, but they need to execute.

Seattle needs Kenneth Walker III to carry 23+ times for 95+ yards and 2 TDs, filling Charbonnet's void admirably. Darnold must manage his oblique injury, throw for 195 yards and 1 TD, and avoid turnovers.

The defense needs to force a critical 4Q turnover from Stafford. The crowd at Lumen Field will be electric. Seattle needs to lean on their home-field advantage and make Stafford uncomfortable.

The Rams' Path to Victory

LA's path is tougher, but it's not impossible if Stafford shows up.

LA needs Stafford to shake off the finger injury and cold-weather concerns. Throw for 265 yards and 2 TDs. Kyren Williams must carry the load on the ground to control the clock.

The Rams need to get pressure on Darnold and exploit his oblique injury. Make him uncomfortable in the pocket. Force him to make mistakes like he did in Week 11 (4 INTs).

The championship experience matters. Stafford and McVay have been here before. They need to stay calm and execute.

Shurzy's bottom line: The Rams can win this game, but everything has to go right. Stafford's finger has to hold up in 43-degree weather. Kyren Williams has to dominate on the ground. The defense has to pressure Darnold. That's a lot of "ifs" when you're on the road in the loudest stadium in football.

Final Prediction

Score: Seahawks 24, Rams 21

ATS Winner: Seahawks -2.5 ✓

Total: Under 47.5 ✓

Kenneth Walker III carries 23 times for 95 yards and 2 TDs, filling Charbonnet's void admirably. Sam Darnold manages his oblique injury, throwing for 195 yards and 1 TD while avoiding turnovers. Matthew Stafford throws for 265 yards and 2 TDs, but Seattle's defense forces a critical 4Q turnover.

The Seahawks seal the win with Walker's clock-killing drive in the final 3 minutes, advancing to Super Bowl LX. Both teams stay under 47.5 in a defensive, run-heavy grind.

Confidence levels:

• Seahawks -2.5: ⭐⭐⭐⭐⭐ (Very high confidence)
• Under 47.5: ⭐⭐⭐⭐ (High confidence)
• Seahawks ML -155: ⭐⭐⭐⭐⭐ (Very high confidence, but poor value)
• Rams ML +130: ⭐⭐⭐ (Moderate confidence, value play)

This is a max-bet spot on Seahawks -2.5 and a solid play on Under 47.5. The line moved from -1.5 to -2.5, Charbonnet is OUT (730 rush yards, 12 TDs), Darnold is managing an oblique injury, Stafford is 1-9 in cold/adverse weather, and the Seahawks are 8-1 at home. Load up on the Seahawks spread, take the under, and focus on Kenneth Walker III Over 79.5 rushing yards as your best player prop.

Next Steps

If you're betting spreads: Learn home-field advantage in championship games to understand why Lumen Field's electric atmosphere creates a 2-3 point edge.

If you're betting totals: Study injury impact on game scripts to identify when RB injuries force run-heavy approaches that stay under.

Want a deeper edge? Use QB playoff experience metrics to gauge Stafford's championship pedigree vs. Darnold's 1-1 playoff record.